more dumb Hal baseball

Down by 4 in the 9th
1st 2 men reach
Pesky flys out to right
Dumb Hal decides that runner on 2nd should tag up and try to advance to 3rd
He's out of course.
Hal is a dope.

I've seen that more times than I would like. Sometimes it works for you and sometimes against. Still, it would be good for HAL to understand that in the 9th inning, there is a huge difference between the potential tying runner and the runner who could get you within two runs.

Who is the RF?

And what is your team running setting?

Nellie Fox was the runner on 2nd
George Selkirk was in RF
Base running set at normal

Even if safe chance was 1-19, I don't want him going in that situation.
If he was the tying run, that would be different.

But virtually any baseball player if he had 95% odds of being safe would go. Most would go with lesser odds.
I would say if you are not wanting to challenge in such situations your philosophy is very conservative with respect to baserunning and you should set your settings accordingly.

Most would go with lesser odds.

Not down by 4 runs.
Every manager in baseball would go up to that player and say, "What the heck are you doing"?