Thu May 12, 2016 9:11 pm
And so continues the 538 love affair with the Elo ratings as the be-all and end-all of comparing / ranking things in sports. I think the simple approach might give a better result here. The objective of baseball (or any other team sport) is to score more runs (points) than your opponent. So the best baseball teams of all-time would be the ones that were the most successful in achieving that objective: scoring the most runs in their league while at the same time allowing the fewest runs scored. Further, you could calculate how much the team was above the league average in runs scored and runs allowed to identify the truly great teams.
For example 2001 Seattle Mariners 116-46 (.716), 927 runs scored (1st in AL) 627 runs allowed (1st in AL). The league average was 787, so that's +17.8% above LA for runs scored and +20.3% above LA for runs allowed. Now let's look at the 1939 Yankees 106-45 (.702), 967 runs scored (1st in AL) 556 runs allowed (1st in AL). The league average was 801, so that's +20.7% above LA for runs scored and +30.6% above LA for runs allowed. The 1927 Yankees? 110-44 (.714) 975 runs scored (1st in AL) 599 runs allowed (1st in AL). League average was 762. +28.0% above LA for runs scored and +21.4% above LA for runs allowed. The 1906 Cubs - 116-36 (.763), 704 runs scored (1st in NL) 381 runs allowed (1st in NL). League average was 549. +28.2% above LA for runs scored and +30.5% above LA for runs allowed.
By this quick and dirty measure the 1906 Cubbies come out on top among the teams I looked at, followed by the 1939 Yanks, but the 1927 Yankees are right behind that. My point is the best all-time teams should lead their respective leagues (or at least come very close) in both runs scored and runs allowed. How many times that's happened I don't know... but I think the 1909 Cubs might even have been better than the 1909 Pirates, #4 on the 538 Elo list.