Run Differential

Run differential is a usually reliable predictor of won / loss record. Not in this league. The team with the best RD has about the same number of wins as the team with worst RD. Very odd, hard to figure out.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/430577

I don't know if I have one explanation, but your team illustrates something I wanted to write about in the forum.

If all 12 teams draft 4 *SP, and if all 12 teams put their ace at the first game, then the aces will always face each other, the #2 will always face #2, etc, because the schedule is balanced (3 games every day). And from what I can see, most owners do put their ace at the #1 and follow that logic--of course 5-men rotation don't follow that pattern, but they are less frequent in ATG.

But there MUST be at least one team in there for which setting an ace in the #1 spot is NOT the best strategy. There MUST be one team whose best strategy should be to put their #4 against everyone's ace, and then have the better edge in all other three matchups. I say "MUST", but I don't have any proof, it just seems to me that everything must not balance out.

IF I look at your team, Keefe didn't have his best season (ERA=4.89), but he also had by far the worst support from your offense, which is not surprising considering that he almost always faced a top ace. Looking around the league, Keefe was also one of the weaker ace. Clarkson, your #4, had an incredible run support, again as expected because he faced the worse starters in the league regularly, but he only turned a 17-12 out of it because of a 6.71 era. So I wonder how your record would turn out with the same pitchers, but with a different front.

Marc,

I checked my rotation default settings, and it's Radbourn - Clarkson - Keefe - Bradley. So my two most expensive starters are going against the other teams' 3 and 4 starters. That's probably not what the problem is with this team.

No, Keefe started game 1 and pitched every four games since, so he probably pitched against mostly aces. Starting rotation default is pointless once you set your rotation for the first series.

Your team is very vulnerable to RHP and mauls lefties. Your OPS against LHP is .114 higher than against RHP. My guess is that (a) you are piling up a big run differential against LH starters, and (b) your opponents' bullpens (probably mostly right handed) are picking up a lot of relief wins against your weak bullpen.

I don't know if I have one explanation, but your team illustrates something I wanted to write about in the forum.

If all 12 teams draft 4 *SP, and if all 12 teams put their ace at the first game, then the aces will always face each other, the #2 will always face #2, etc, because the schedule is balanced (3 games every day). And from what I can see, most owners do put their ace at the #1 and follow that logic--of course 5-men rotation don't follow that pattern, but they are less frequent in ATG.

But there MUST be at least one team in there for which setting an ace in the #1 spot is NOT the best strategy.

I've thought about this, as well, especially since I run a lot of solo computer leagues, where the computer (and myself) have to deal with usage and more injuries, thereby insuring you use more SP's. Because of that, in the online game, for teams where I have SP's with similar price ranges, I'll sometimes set up my "ace" (by price) in the #2 or even #3 slot. I've also, a couple of times, thrown in a spot start mid-season to shake up the rota. Of course, if I'm pitching my #3 guy against their #1, they have an advantage. But if the disparity in quality is huge (say I have 6M starter against a Maddux), it doesn't make much difference who I trot out there, since I'm trying to outscore them, get the starter out, and turn it over to the bullpen.

if I had to guess, and I confess i did not dive into boxsscores, you are winning a lot of blowouts (eg., 32-9) but you are worst in the league in 1-run games


honestly, I share your passion for the non-HR offense, but I think you need LOTS of triples to win using it - and I would also use a 1-1-1-1 park to make sure that, at home at least, those taters (you have allowed about 140 more than you have) are solo shots..

and to be really honest, I have put aside my attempt ro win w. an of of Shoeless, Ty, and Tris for a while in favor of improving the ATG8 win percentage a bit.