Slugging vs overall contribution

If I just post these lines,

Players...........AVG/OBP/SLG...
Goldschmidt: .285/.376/.527....
Suttles........ .322/.371/.691..

it seems pretty evident that Suttles is having a better year.

Just before season began, I was looking to trade pitching for a positional player, I had 2 standing offers. In one offer, I could have got Suttles, but I choose instead the second offer by which I obtained Goldschmidt. So Olerud became my dh, he would have been my first baseman with Suttles. For the record, this is a 24-team 200M league.

After game 120, it surely doesn't look as if I made the good choice. Here are the stats from the two players, Goldschmidt on my team (Met stadium, HR=12 for rh), Suttles stats from my rival team (he plays in a Minute Maid ballpark, HR=16 for rh).

Players...........AVG/OBP/SLG...R rbis... Hits 2b 3b HR BB PA
Goldschmidt: .285/.376/.527.... 92 69... 129 22 3 27 64 516
Suttles........ .322/.371/.691.... 94 96... 143 36 10 36 34 478

Using linear weights, I estimate that Goldschmidt's hitting has generated 32 runs so far over an low-average player, while Suttles hitting generated 52 runs. That's 20 runs in favor of Suttles. I checked if any of the two players led the leagues in gounding balls into doubleplay or in intentional walks, but neither did, so we'll consider these stats a non factor. Clutch outs/hits were virtually absent too.

However, while the two stadiums were not so much different, Suttles did hit in a more favorable environment. He converted 62% of his opportunities in homeruns, while Goldschmidt converted 47%. Goldschmidt did have a few were stadium singles, though. The net result I have is that stadiums opportunities favor Suttles by 3.6 runs. So the net edge, offensively, for stadiums statistically-controlled, is that Suttles was 16.4 runs better than Goldschmidt.

But, wait, what about running and defense? Bah, this is first base, it's not really an important position, right? Besides, my dh platoon composed of Olerud and Hodges would have not been too bad defensively...The team on which Suttles continues to play has Fox as his first baseman, and Fox's 3e9, which is close enough to Olerud, so we'll use that as a baseline.

Defense

Player......OPP Outs DP
Goldsch.....40 38 5
Baseline....40 24 2


Goldschmidt is almost perfect defensively: he converted 38 plays for outs and made 2 errors. Compared to the baseline (23 outs in 40 chances), there were 14 cases where Goldschmidt got an out while his replacement would allow a hit or an error. In all logic, Goldschmidt probably turned more double-plays too. SOM doesn't give this stat, but I'll make an educated guess that Goldschmidt would turn 3 more doubleplays compared to an average fielder. The net result is that Goldschmidt saved my pitching staff 11.7 runs compared to a baseline perfomrance (basically Olerud).

Running
Players can contribute to running runs by two means. Stealing bases, or advancing on a hit or a thrown ball.

Here is the that for both Goldschmdt and Suttles:

Player...SB CS opp adv out
Goldsch..11 3 28 15 4
Suttles...0 0 21 4 2

Suttles has ciment foot, so he didn't contribute positively to the running game. Goldschmidt, in turn, was successful with his running game. I am not sitting on hard evidence about how to assess a runner advancing on base, but my best estimate is that Goldschmidt contributed for 4.9 runs with his feet.

So to recap:
Goldschmidt: + 11.7 runs defensively + 4.9 runs running game
Suttles: +16.4 runs offensively (after adjusting for stadiums)

Goldschmidt gets the edge by a razon thin margin of 0.2 runs.

So I made the right decision, then, to pick up Goldschmidt over Suttles, right?

Not exactly, the subtle eye maybe noticed that Goldschmidt had roughly 40 more at-bats compared to Suttles...In fact, Suttles played 9 fewer games than Goldschmidt. If I replace his absence by the value of a replacmeent plyaer, and because this is a 200M league, players are all pretty good, then Suttles (and his replacement player) did contribute more than Goldschmidt (and his replacement player)....but it was close, probably a 2-3 runs difference....

In conclusion, there is more to the AVG/OBP/SLG line than meets the eye...

Interesting analysis Marc!!

Great stuff - thanks!

Since we are taking a deep dive into this and as I continue to try to figure this game out, it seems to me like there a couple of other factors that weigh in favor of Goldschmidt (I am assuming these calculations are from the 200m Pennant fever league):

Some of those missed plate appearances were due to injury (3 games) so the difference injury rating does come into play.

As of today (so slightly different from your numbers) Goldschmidt has 117/539 of plate appearance against lefties which has worked to his advantage. Suttles has only faced 39/506 plate appearances against lefties. Facing this additional number of lefties (which is likely had he been on your team) should reduce his overall numbers some since he is a 3R (despite his small sample high numbers against lefties right now) (It should also slightly reduce his park hr opportunities since he is only a 6 on the left side -- though not sure it would be enough to even account for one hr- Also the fact that Suttles had 22 opp for bphr versus Goldschmidt 19 on fewer at bats can only be accounted for by luck and/or facing different pitching since Goldschmidt is 8/8 and Suttles is a 6/8-- thus does not really go to who is the better choice- though you may have already controlled for that)

The most interesting thing to me is the analysis make a good example of good value v. absolute performance. Suttles seems the better choice in a lower money league where the marginal benefit of Goldschmidt of spending that 1.8 mil difference in salary on him is likely less than bang for the buck elsewhere. But in 200m where the limiting factor is the number of players on the field at one time (and not so much money at least for starters), the absolute best player for the circumstances, even if not a value, wins out.

The most interesting thing to me is the analysis make a good example of good value v. absolute performance. Suttles seems the better choice in a lower money league where the marginal benefit of Goldschmidt of spending that 1.8 mil difference in salary on him is likely less than bang for the buck elsewhere. But in 200m where the limiting factor is the number of players on the field at one time (and not so much money at least for starters), the absolute best player for the circumstances, even if not a value, wins out.

Yes, definitively a great point. Suttles would be much more efficient for the money if this had to be an issue.

Playing in a 200M vs 80M league also impact how you deal with injuries.

True, Goldschmidt is a virtual 0-risk injury and Suttles is likely to miss roughly 10 games. But in 200M, you usually have very good subs, especially for dh, so Suttles doesn't lose much value compared to Goldschmidt because of the injury.

To illustrate, in my stadium (Metropolitain, assuming 28% of lefty pitching and assuming Goslin is my dh backup), my ratings establish Suttles's salary at 9.41M. If Orta is my dh backup (a cheap option in 80M leagues), Suttles's salary would be established at 9.02M.

In other words, to play Goslin for 10 games instead of Orta generates roughly 4 extra runs, which is worth roughly 0.4M.

As I was trying to explain at the end of my post above, I attribute this 0.4M value to Stuttle because in fact my real interest in not in comparing Goldschmidt vs Stuttles per se, but really to compare Goldschmidt vs whoever will be dh if I trade for Suttles (and that includes the 10 games Goslin will back up for Suttles).

Goldschmidt's salary remains stable at 9.68M in both environments because of his "iron" status. So not considering platooning, Goldschmidt does appear in my ratings with the best card, but the difference is clearly bigger in 80M leagues (9.68M vs 9.02M) than in 200M league (9.68M vs 9.41).

This said, there are more subtleties to take care of.

If I trade for Goldschmidt, then I need to move Olerud and Hodges to dh. With Stuttles dh-ing, the two players would be used in a platoon at first base. Both Olerud and Hodges have positive value at defense, not much, mind you, but still, 0.3M according to my ratings. Stuttles has no defensive value, everything you pay for is on the offensive card. So the loss of efficiency with having Olerud/Hodges dh-ing bring "a loss" of 0.3M to my lineup, thereby affecting the "net" value for Goldschmidt at 9.38M. So we are now in a virtual tie with Suttles backed up by Goslin (9.41M).

But I do have Fournier on my team, and Fournier is clearly better than either Goldschmidt or Stuttles in Shea-like stadiums. So indeed, I started Fournier over Goldschmidt in those stadiums, vs rhp. And the gap of improvement is greater vs Goldschmidt than vs Suttles. If my team plays 20 games in such stadium, I get a 0.2M improvement if I start Fournier have Goldschmidt than if I start Fournier over Suttles. So slight edge to Goldschmidt...

But then again...my assumption that my team would face 28% of lefties was wrong. In fact, I'm likely to be closer to 23%. That would have given a big boost for Suttles over Goldschmidt.