Who's better at CF

Give me the 1 in CF most of the time (unless error rate is off the charts or its a +3 or something like that). I'll take the OUT over the extra base every time.

Thanks Outta Leftfield. 1-14 does indeed look like the cutoff for many opportunities of advancing a base.

You wonder about aggressive vs conservative settings and the lack of perception that they have an impact on the game. I do believe they have slightly different outcomes, but the effect is indeed very subtle.

2 things to say about this:
1) This online game gives us access to only three of the seven or eight levels of settings available on the computer game. If my memory serves well, these are the labels we have access on the computer game: Extreme Aggressive, Very Aggressive, Aggressive, Normal, Conservative, Extra Conservative, Deadball Style. The labels we use online are in fact misleading, since the settings we have access are 2nd-3rd and 4th level of aggressiveness (namely: Very Aggressive, Aggressive, Normal---so what we call "conservative settings" for advancing on-base represents in fact the "normal" settings of the computer engine). As a consequence, the cut-off difference is probably subtle: maybe 65% cut-off for "agressive=very aggressive" and 75% cut-off for what is called "conservative" but really represents normal settings (compared to 90% with the deadball settings---that would be easily spoted) . Bear in mind that this difference of cutoffs apply only on a selection of opportunities, those that fall between 65% and 75%. the overall success rate of opportunities under the two settings will forcibly be below 10%, perhpas as low as 2% or 3% difference, hardly noticeable with the naked eye.

2) The other thing to know is that, regardless of your settings, SOM adds what looks like random decisions. Once in a while (maybe 5% of all opportunities), HAL sends the runner regardless of the settings. I believe this logic comes from playing the solitary mode, before the game was made for the computer mode. The rules when playing solitary mode is that, you would roll the 20 dice, and if you hit "20", you would send the runner regarless of the success rate (my memory is about steals, but perhaps the same rule applied to advancing a base). In any case, what I know is that there are occasions where the runner is sent with extremely bad numbers. The worse I've observed is Luzinski who was sent to advance on a 1-4 safe opportunity. This explains the stats you see about the running opportunities for very slow runners. If the cut-off was indeed 1-13/1-14, you would expect 65%-70% success rate with very few opportunities taken, typically 2 safe and 1 out outcome. In fact, the success rate you see is closer to 50%-55%. The three opportunities around 66% success rate are mixed with one or two opportunities at random with an average success rate of maybe 35%-40%.

This second part has further the consequence of diluting the difference between the "agressive" mode and the "conservative mode" explained in the first paragraph.