2023 Hall of Fame

Good point Outta. Having to field all those bunts also made 3B defense more important back then, in addition to the double-play dynamics you mention. Still, I'd expect a few more glove-first guys like Brooks Robinson to have popped during that time.

Beltran qualifies to me. His totals over a long career are impressive. 1,582 runs, 1,587 RBI. 312 SB, only 49 CS. 100 RS or better=7 times. 100+ RBI=8 times. 8-time all star. Led league in OF assists 4 times, putouts twice, and twice in DPs. 565 doubles, 78 triples, 435 HRs. 2X silver slugger, 3x Gold Glove. His career WAR is 70.1. His first 3 comps on similarity scores: Dawson, Billy Williams and Al Kaline.

Rolen’s numbers are somewhat similar (though he’s a few hundred behind in R/RBI). He has the exact same WAR as Beltran. He also has only 1 HoF comp on his list: Santo at #7. The player Rolen is most like is Matt Holliday.

I’m not sure why Rolen would be considered better, to be honest. He has 8 gold gloves. But, according to the numbers, Beltran is just as good, if not better. Carlos actually meets the HoF standards, according baseball reference. Rolen doesn’t. I’m not sure why anyone thinks Rolen is “obvious” and Beltran isn’t. Look at the numbers. I’m guessing it’s more about the 2017 Astros than his actual performance.

To me they're both obvious. You said yourself they have the same WAR so that's the starting point. I agree the only wrinkle for Beltran is the sign stealing but I think ultimately that's not enough to keep him out and the writers will vote him in, maybe even as soon as next year.

Just to say though, Bill James created those similarity scores as essentially a fun toy, there's no rigorous math underlying them and they're not meant to be relied on when assessing players, even though I see them cited in HOF arguments constantly. Honestly wish bbref would just delete them.

To me they're both obvious. You said yourself they have the same WAR so that's the starting point. I agree the only wrinkle for Beltran is the sign stealing but I think ultimately that's not enough to keep him out and the writers will vote him in, maybe even as soon as next year.

Just to say though, Bill James created those similarity scores as essentially a fun toy, there's no rigorous math underlying them and they're not meant to be relied on when assessing players, even though I see them cited in HOF arguments constantly. Honestly wish bbref would just delete them.

The comp list sort of bears out the HoF standards measurements, also displayed down at the bottom baseball reference. I don’t know that they tell us much more than we already know, but I feel like every scrap of data helps. James’s work on what make a Hall of Famer ended up convincing himself that Phil Rizzuto was better than he thought. Anyway, at least we have more data than back in the day, when Frankie Frisch was putting all his friends in.