Is anybody using the IBB?

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commitments

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Is anybody using the IBB?

PostMon Jan 22, 2024 3:22 pm

Hey Guys
I've been using the Intentional Base on Balls but I noticed HAL only walks guys with 2 outs. I was hoping to increase my chances of getting a double play. Does anybody know of a way to get HAL to walk a batter with less than 2 outs?

Artie
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Whoopycat

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Re: Is anybody using the IBB?

PostMon Jan 22, 2024 4:53 pm

I don't trust HAL with IBB because HAL's logic seems to focus solely around clutch rating. Even with IBB settings at Conservative, HAL loves to issue free passes if the on deck has negative clutch, even if the current hitter is a favorable L-R matchup for the pitcher. Not sure I have ever seen HAL issue a free pass with less than 2 outs.
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Eddie E

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Re: Is anybody using the IBB?

PostMon Jan 22, 2024 4:54 pm

Never a good idea to intentionally walk someone in my opinion. chances of a double play IF you have all 1's in the infield:

12 dp's on pitchers card (usually highest possible quantity in 20xx , half of that in ATG)
1b 2x chance on pitchers card, 80% G1 results on chart = 1.6 dp
2b 6x chance on pitchers card, 80% G1 results on chart = 4.8 dp
ss 7x chances on pitchers card, 80% G1 results on chart = 5.6 dp
3b 3x chance on pitchers card, 80% G1 results on chart = 2.4 dp
p 2x chance on pitchers card, 50% G1 results on chart = 1 dp
c 3x chance on pitchers card, 20% G1 results on chart = .6 dp

This totals 28 double plays possible out of 324 (column 4,5 and 6 with 108 chances each) chances on pitchers card = 8.6% chance of a dp (assuming e0 which is very rare to non existant)

Hitters cards- The hitters (again not many) who have the most dp's on their card are around 30 dp's = 9.2%

So total chances of a dp with the absolute best conditions (high double play hitter, infield back, 1e0 infield defense at all six positions and P having 12 dp's per side = 8.9% chance of a double play. The worst hitters in the set facing the best pitchers in the set have 15% chance of on base not counting the outs on the cards that would move runners. You could also look at it this way: if the chance of a dp is 9.2% then the chance of any hitter vs any pitcher is at minimum 90.8% of rolling a non dp. I wouldnt want to bet on a 1 in 10 result.

PS I understand HAL only walks batters because of a plus clutch factor for the hitter at the plate but based upon the above math, I say please walk my plus clutch hitter since +14 clutch (again about as high as it gets) is only 4.3 % of the hitters results.
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: Is anybody using the IBB?

PostMon Jan 22, 2024 5:15 pm

I always set my team intentional walks at Extra Conservative. And I set almost all of my pitcher prefs as IBB less. I might make an exception on pitcher prefs if I have a 5L or 5R reliever, on the theory that I wouldn't mind a 5L RP walking a righty, but I'm not sure if HAL pays any attention to platoon when issuing IBB. Anyway, with an Extra Conservative team setting and a IBB less, a pitcher, in my experience will issue no IBB. And that's the way I like it when HAL is making the decisions.

Very often, my teams issue no IBB all season, or if so, then very few. And that's the way I like it. My theory is, the fewer the baserunners, the fewer the runs, especially in an environment where almost eveyone can hit, which is typically the case in ATG.

Even so, many folks are using the IBB. If one looks at the Manager Profiles, some teams might issue 0 to 5 IBB, and other might be issuing 60 or more.
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Eddie E

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Re: Is anybody using the IBB?

PostMon Jan 22, 2024 7:10 pm

agreed, my teams issue 0-5 the entire season and usually 0
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DonSutton

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Re: Is anybody using the IBB?

PostMon Jan 22, 2024 7:14 pm

IBB extra conservative for me, always.

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