Probability quiz

Moderator: Palmtana

If you're at a roulette table and red has come up 6 times in a row, what do you bet on?

RED
15
47%
BLACK
17
53%
 
Total votes : 32

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STEVE F

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Probability quiz

PostSat Mar 12, 2016 1:41 pm

If you're at a roulette table and you see red come up 6 times in a row, which do you bet on?

Hint: It's not 50/50 even though logic tells us it is. There is ONE correct answer
Last edited by STEVE F on Sat Mar 12, 2016 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Misterg78582

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Re: Simple probability quiz

PostSat Mar 12, 2016 1:49 pm

Whatever trips your trigger...
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Salty

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Re: Simple probability quiz

PostSat Mar 12, 2016 1:59 pm

Steve-

you are completely missing the point--
we all understand that ANYTHING may happen with dice rolls--
you can even get 3-12 a million times in a row.

So, yeah, answering either red or black on a 50/50 chance no matter whats happened before is still 50/50 we get it.
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STEVE F

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Re: Simple probability quiz

PostSat Mar 12, 2016 2:10 pm

Salty wrote:Steve-

you are completely missing the point--
we all understand that ANYTHING may happen with dice rolls--
you can even get 3-12 a million times in a row.

So, yeah, answering either red or black on a 50/50 chance no matter whats happened before is still 50/50 we get it.

actually it isn't
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tony best

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Re: Simple probability quiz

PostSat Mar 12, 2016 2:53 pm

well of course its not 50/50 there is a house edge. If you figured a way that other than that its not 50/50 then please invite me to your mansion!!
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rburgh

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Re: Probability quiz

PostSat Mar 12, 2016 10:40 pm

When red comes up 6 times in a row, one of two things has happened.

1. The wheel is perfectly random, and you have just witnessed a 1 in 64 event. Bet your favorite color.

2. The wheel is flawed, and red is more likely to come up than black until they fix it. Bet red.

Since 2 is not impossible, the correct answer is to bet red.
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cminton

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Re: Probability quiz

PostSun Mar 13, 2016 12:25 am

I would not say that the correct answer is to bet red. Given the number of times that the wheel spins, streaks of six red (or black) in a row happen more often than you would expect. You may have just sat down at the right time to see a streak. That said, if you bet red, you would not be wrong because either (1) something is wrong with the wheel or (2) you have the same chance of red or black.
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nels52

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Re: Probability quiz

PostSun Mar 13, 2016 11:27 am

That wheel ain't right. Bet red.
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lanier64

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Re: Probability quiz

PostSun Mar 13, 2016 1:54 pm

"Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1."
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tony best

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Re: Probability quiz

PostSun Mar 13, 2016 3:52 pm

I change my vote-red is the correct answer
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