Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

Q: What is clutch in SOM?
A: Clutch rating appears to be SOM's effort to replicate real life RBI results.

Q: Why does it exist?
A: I don't know. It's not like SOM creates a rating to replicate real life runs scored. But it's there.

Q: How is it calculated?
A: SOM clutch rating is not Strat's estimate of real life clutch ability (such as BA with RISP). Strat is a bit cagey about clutch but from what I can tell it appears to be a relationship between the player's OPS and their real life RBI numbers. Therefore, a slugger who hit 34 HR but only drove in 90 runs will have a terrible clutch rating, while a deadballer with a .700 OPS who drove in 80 runs will have an extremely high clutch.

Batting average also appears to be a factor. So Aaron Judge (52 HR, 114 RBI) does not have a clutch penalty as his card is all walks and extra base hits, while the '65 Mays card (52 HR 112 RBI) has a (-13) clutch rating because he has a lot of singles on his card.

At the other end you have Dixie Walker who drove in 124 runs with only 8 HR and about a .800 OPS so he has a +10 rating.

Q: Does SOM factor clutch into player pricing?
A: Who knows, but my guess is minimal. Compare '06 Tinker vs '90 Weiss. Both $1m, same fielding, same injury risk, same speed, Weiss has a higher OPS but Tinker has a huge difference in clutch. So maybe a little.

Q: Does it matter?
A: Debatable. I've had good teams with nearly all negative clutch guys and good teams with all high clutch guys.

If you look at a typical team that is built clutch-indifferent, you're looking at about 20 clutch rolls per season. In theory that should net to 0 additional hits/runs if you have a mix of positive/negative clutch guys.

However... a clutch hit is always going to give you (or take away) a run, and maybe 2 runs if there are runners on 2nd/3rd or the bases are loaded. Therefore, I would roughly estimate each clutch hit is worth +1.3 runs, and each negative clutch out is worth (-1.3) runs.

Also worth noting is the clutch effect on HAL. HAL is acutely aware of clutch, and will often intentionally walk high clutch hitters to get to a lower clutch hitter, even if the next hitter is pretty good. Even if HAL's strategy pays off, that's another out avoided in the lineup, so 2 hitters to get 1 out, giving your better hitters more at bats.

To be continued...

Another obvious point but worth keeping in mind: clutch hits give you at least one run, and clutch outs not only give you an out but avoids a run, ends an inning and gets the pitcher out of a jam. In the late innings a clutch out might prevent a pitcher from becoming fatigued.

We've all seen those Forbes teams with hi clutch small ball guys like Lajoie, Cobb, Appling, Chance, etc. 3 or 4 of those guys on a team can cause problems even mixed with negative clutch hitters. HAL will avoid them like the plague in clutch situations. And if HAL walks Lajoie to get to '00 Honus and his (-13) clutch you'll take it every time (on offense). I've also seen many times where my pitcher issued a free pass to a high clutch hitter and fatigue kicked in, in effect kind of wasting the strategy of the IBB unless you were planning on bringing in a lefty/righty specialist.

What got me thinking about clutch was looking at the new '48 Ted Williams card. 7-8 diamonds on each side and a +10 clutch rating. He's almost unique with high clutch, high OBP, and high power. The '55 Snider card would maybe come the closest. Maybe '59 Banks and '66 Boog but their OBP aren't balanced.

I'm kind of rambling. To be continued...

Your lengthy posts on an esoteric topic triggered a memory from the TSN boards. In the Bullpen there was a manager who would post his progress as he played ...Minecraft? Very detailed recaps with no replies. Does anyone remember him? He wanted to share his experience as you do.

Here are some links on the topic of clutch from the 20XX forums:

Best place to put clutch hitters?
Observing Clutch

Continue on.....

It should be mentioned, if it hasn't already that there are many many more negative clutch hitters than positive clutch hitters.

And the clutch rating might also have more to do with AS PLAYED TEAM SOM. I believe it is meant to be a team run/RBI adjuster more than a reflection of actual clutch hitting, whatever your definition of that might be.

Here are some ALL POSITIVE CLUTCH TEAMS I have put together over the years:

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1393030

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1387515

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1522547

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/183188 no breakdown on Clutch for this team too old I guess

Make of it what you will.

Thanks or the analysis - interesting topic. I usually put players with high OPS and negative clutch in my second batting slot - (e,g, 1940 McCosky), I have not done any analysis on the ideal slot for such a hitter but would welcome comments. As with egvrich - I have used the 08 Donlin with success in the 4 or 5 slot on small teams and the 57 Forbes field.

As a final note one of egvrich teams was the Clutch Cargos - am I the only one that remembers watching that show early on a Saturday morning back when world series games were actually played during the day?.

Welcome to the thread!

Yes you could easily go round and round about the effect of clutch. On one hand you can look at the net effect. Some guys have positive clutch, some negative, and the net effect might be zero runs for most teams. And there are a bunch of cards in the +3/-3 clutch range where clutch is rarely if ever going to be a factor and so those cards might have 0 or 1 total rolls affected by clutch in an entire season.

However, if you watch replays of your teams' games, clutch *opportunities* come up all the time. Probably 3-4 times a game for each team and maybe more in a hitters park or with weak pitchers.

Put it this way: what if clutch was black box code in the game engine instead of plainly visible on the cards? Guys would be screaming bloody murder about not knowing what each player's clutch rating was and why Earle Combs keeps popping out with 2 outs when the roll on his card was a single. Adding (or removing) +10 SINGLE** chances to a card is nothing to sneeze at IMO.

To be continued...

Here are some ALL POSITIVE CLUTCH TEAMS I have put together over the years:

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1393030

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1387515

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1522547

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/183188 no breakdown on Clutch for this team too old I guess

Make of it what you will.

All four good teams! Here's one of mine I found, I'm still digging:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/1108057

As a final note one of egvrich teams was the Clutch Cargos - am I the only one that remembers watching that show early on a Saturday morning back when world series games were actually played during the day?.

Yep, that's exactly where the names came from.

On November 18, 2012 I posted in the ATG forum the topic "Does Clutch Hitting Make A Difference? Here's Proof."
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=631230

Here's what I wrote back then (updates are in bold red):

From time to time on the message board there will be a thread discussing clutch hitting and the impact it may have on the game. Clutch hitting numbers have been available since the transition from the TSN site to the SOM site. I thought that some of you would be interested in some clutch hitting numbers tracked over 3.5 (now 4) seasons for one of the best clutch hitters in the game.

$9.66 mil (now $9.77 mil in ATG9) Duke Snider has one of the best clutch hitting cards in the game, with 11 extra hit chances as a result of clutch hitting vs. both lefties and righties. Snider batted 5th, considered by many to be the optimal clutch hitting spot in the lineup, all season long on the teams below, with clutch hitting results in parentheses)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/389812 - (2 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .359)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/803773 - (5 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .401)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/805664 - (7 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .457)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/389809 - (3 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .441) (after 81 games) (Now 7 clutch hits after a full season)

So in 3.5 (now 4) seasons batting 5th, with the preceding 4 hitters in the lineup averaging roughly a .411 OBP, the average is about 5-6 clutch hits per season for one of the best clutch hitters in the game batting in what many consider to be the optimum spot in the lineup for clutch hitting opportunities.

How significant is this? Well at first blush, it appears to be not very significant, averaging a clutch hit every 27-32 games or so. Note that the number of clutch hits was directly correlated to the OBP of the 4 preceding hitters, i.e. the higher the average OBP of the 4 preceding hitters, the more clutch hits, obviously as a result of more clutch hitting opportunities.

However, 5-6 clutch hits per season might be more significant than it first appears. With 20-25% of the games per season being decided by 1 run, and with a clutch hit ALWAYS driving in at least 1 run, not to mention that it keeps the rally going, giving other hitters an opportunity to knock in more runs, it could translate into a handful of extra wins per season. With playoff spots often being decided by two games or less, positive clutch hitting could have a HUGE impact in the standings.

While we may disagree on the extent of the impact, one thing is certain, being that a team is better off with some extra clutch hitting than without it.