Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

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nevdully's

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Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 12:16 am

***Have Not won a Title***


29 of my last 30 100+ win teams Have not won a title. (not counting 6 team leagues)


I do think the results, at least playoff results, are often *predetermined*

I think the substitute for your just injured player *also* gets hurt far too often.

I think the cumulative amount of things (lots of em) that should statistically happen very very infrequently, happen routinely.
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chuckwonup

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 7:59 am

I hear you and have at times have considered that the playoffs are predetermined. But that being said I am kinda paranoid and conspiratorial to begin with. So I really have no conclusion. Besides if you really start raising hell Hal will probably punish you with a sub 500 team, maybe 2 and then you won't even think of the playoffs. I think I'd keep quiet but i hear ya.
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blineimages

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 8:40 am

The chances of this happening "by chance" for Nevdully, though possible, is astronomically unlikely.

My record with 100+ win teams is virtually identical to nevdullys.
I have only won one CHAMPIONSHIP with a 100+ win team. Ever.

And the chances of two owners, having similar records like that, is beyond coincidence.....

It is my belief that STRAT uses several "modifiers" or "normalizers", to ensure that new owners get a chance to win championships early on in order to keep them continuing to purchase teams.

I believe these modifiers are applied based on specific owner criteria, and not universally.
I have been tracking data starting about a year ago, when I started to notice disturbing patterns.

Here are some of the patterns:

1) Teams that are tops in league in run differential, not making the playoffs. As an exception, one wouldn't be concerned, but as this has become an on-going pattern for some of my teams, and something is rotten in Denmark.

2) There is something that happens at the 120 game point in a season. I have had numerous teams, that have large leads at the 120 game mark (8 to 12 game leads), that then go into a complete tailspin and then end up not making the playoffs, in fact losing out in the last few days of the season. I tracked home/away records, and strong/weak team matchups, and there is no glaring imbalance per those issues. This is doubly troubling in that most of the time around the 120 game point, 3-4 owners in a league, once the feel they are out the running, cease to manage their teams and no longer optimize their settings and matchups---so you would think that if you have a strong team, that in most cases your won-lost record would improve over the last 42 games of the season. but in these cases, the exact opposite happens.

3) Playoff injuries. Those who play me in leagues, know that I normally have most of my starting players with very low injury risk. Starting about 6 months ago, teams of mine that would make it to the playoffs, have this disturbing pattern of 2-3 key players getting injured in the first two games of the playoffs. It has happened enough times that I believe this is not a coincidence--especially when you compare the incident frequency with injuries during the season--i.e. it is very rare that in one series during the season, with the 1* and "only in game or no injury players" that I have, that 2-3 of them would be injured in the same series--it almost never happens during the season.

These are just some of the patterns that myself and several other owners have been tracking. I think STRAT has looked at the data, and the data tells them that new owners will lose interest at some point if they fail to win a championship, so STRAT initiated these "modifiers" to address that situation. One of the things that confirmed this for me, was STRAT creating the ROOKIE Leagues---which were specifically setup so that newbies could have a chance at a ring without having to face Nevdully or NOMADBRAD or the like. Of course what then happened, is certain owners, decided to create new user names, so they could appear as newbies, so they could go into the rookie leagues and reap.....so I think STRAT decided to implement other modifiers to achieve their goal.

look, I am all for making ONLINE STRAT a successful game, I know many of us, including myself, love this game. But I am not so sure that in order to retain new customers, by using modifiers and thereby sacrificing the long term customers, is the best way to do that. This game is about competition and strategy, and for that, a true level playing field is essential.

We pay money to play this game, for some of us, a substantial amount. Am at the point where I feel that full transparency is vital to my continued participation. We should have full knowledge of any modifiers or normalizers (or any other programming manipulations), and that we get the specific information on how the bullpen programming functions, and if newbies are being given advantages....then that should be something completely transparent.

I do understand the challenge of making this a successful business, but I feel that there are far better methods and strategies that can be used to achieve that goal.

Thats my 2 cents.....
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nevdully's

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 9:19 am

blineimages wrote:The chances of this happening "by chance" for Nevdully, though possible, is astronomically unlikely.

My record with 100+ win teams is virtually identical to nevdullys.
I have only won one CHAMPIONSHIP with a 100+ win team. Ever.

And the chances of two owners, having similar records like that, is beyond coincidence.....

It is my belief that STRAT uses several "modifiers" or "normalizers", to ensure that new owners get a chance to win championships early on in order to keep them continuing to purchase teams.

I believe these modifiers are applied based on specific owner criteria, and not universally.
I have been tracking data starting about a year ago, when I started to notice disturbing patterns.

Here are some of the patterns:

1) Teams that are tops in league in run differential, not making the playoffs. As an exception, one wouldn't be concerned, but as this has become an on-going pattern for some of my teams, and something is rotten in Denmark.

2) There is something that happens at the 120 game point in a season. I have had numerous teams, that have large leads at the 120 game mark (8 to 12 game leads), that then go into a complete tailspin and then end up not making the playoffs, in fact losing out in the last few days of the season. I tracked home/away records, and strong/weak team matchups, and there is no glaring imbalance per those issues. This is doubly troubling in that most of the time around the 120 game point, 3-4 owners in a league, once the feel they are out the running, cease to manage their teams and no longer optimize their settings and matchups---so you would think that if you have a strong team, that in most cases your won-lost record would improve over the last 42 games of the season. but in these cases, the exact opposite happens.

3) Playoff injuries. Those who play me in leagues, know that I normally have most of my starting players with very low injury risk. Starting about 6 months ago, teams of mine that would make it to the playoffs, have this disturbing pattern of 2-3 key players getting injured in the first two games of the playoffs. It has happened enough times that I believe this is not a coincidence--especially when you compare the incident frequency with injuries during the season--i.e. it is very rare that in one series during the season, with the 1* and "only in game or no injury players" that I have, that 2-3 of them would be injured in the same series--it almost never happens during the season.

These are just some of the patterns that myself and several other owners have been tracking. I think STRAT has looked at the data, and the data tells them that new owners will lose interest at some point if they fail to win a championship, so STRAT initiated these "modifiers" to address that situation. One of the things that confirmed this for me, was STRAT creating the ROOKIE Leagues---which were specifically setup so that newbies could have a chance at a ring without having to face Nevdully or NOMADBRAD or the like. Of course what then happened, is certain owners, decided to create new user names, so they could appear as newbies, so they could go into the rookie leagues and reap.....so I think STRAT decided to implement other modifiers to achieve their goal.

look, I am all for making ONLINE STRAT a successful game, I know many of us, including myself, love this game. But I am not so sure that in order to retain new customers, by using modifiers and thereby sacrificing the long term customers, is the best way to do that. This game is about competition and strategy, and for that, a true level playing field is essential.

We pay money to play this game, for some of us, a substantial amount. Am at the point where I feel that full transparency is vital to my continued participation. We should have full knowledge of any modifiers or normalizers (or any other programming manipulations), and that we get the specific information on how the bullpen programming functions, and if newbies are being given advantages....then that should be something completely transparent.

I do understand the challenge of making this a successful business, but I feel that there are far better methods and strategies that can be used to achieve that goal.

Thats my 2 cents.....



His 2 cents is worth a quarter....Especially #2...tons of my teams on pace at about 120 games to win 100 and most fall short...many the last 3 days of play (9 games) It could simply be a "momentum" feature in the game...but it sure does seem like some kind of a thing.
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egvrich

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 10:12 am

Preaching to the choir here ... I have been saying for years that I believe something is pre-determining teams of destiny and teams of misfortune.

And I pretty much agree with everything that has been said:

100 Win teams crapping the bed in the playoffs.
First place teams pulling a '69 Cubs in the final month of the season.
Repeat/recurring injuries.
Momentum factors.
Ridiculous losing streaks after great winning streaks. (I've had teams win 19 straight and then lose 15 straight)
Too many streaks in general (I just had a team that was up by 10 games without about 30 games left, go 4-26 down the stretch.to finish the season and miss the playoffs due to the tie breaker).

And so many other things ...

There is a BLACK BOX! There are absolutely things we DON'T KNOW, that we should be able to know!
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Salty

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 10:24 am

egvrich wrote:Preaching to the choir here ... I have been saying for years that I believe something is pre-determining teams of destiny and teams of misfortune.
There is a BLACK BOX! There are absolutely things we DON'T KNOW, that we should be able to know!



AMEN AMEN AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

there is a lot of transparency lacking here.
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chuckwonup

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 11:27 am

Well decided to take this post much more seriously. Yep I have been suspicious so I just went and checked my teams that won a hundred games. I have had 13 and of that 7 lost in in the semifinals, 4 lost in the finals and 2 have won the finals. That seems significant statistically although I am by no means an expert. I fairly recently had a 115 win season and lost in the final. I do remember a some comments on posts in the past about the "100 game curse" which seems to be very much a reality.

I also have noticed that teams that were off to a blazing start, either mine or others can crash hard. Right now I have been managing a Barnstormers team that is 53-22 and have by amazed by the uncanny luck I have running. Going by the past I think a significant period of losing is next.

So the Black Box seems to me to be very plausible.

The only other event I can remember for me that was extremely strange was way back about 10 years ago playing I was up late one night and ran my scores. For some reason I had to go back to one of my leagues and the games had changed. I had 3 wins but it was then changed to 3 loses. Don't know if it was a ghost or what but really stood out for me as mysterious.
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egvrich

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 12:23 pm

chuckwonup wrote:The only other event I can remember for me that was extremely strange was way back about 10 years ago playing I was up late one night and ran my scores. For some reason I had to go back to one of my leagues and the games had changed. I had 3 wins but it was then changed to 3 loses. Don't know if it was a ghost or what but really stood out for me as mysterious.


WOW!!! That would be something extraordinary. :o :shock: :?
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gkhd11a

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 6:47 pm

I think the issue is if you build a team to win in your division and the regular season you can lose in the long run. I always build my teams to try and beat who I think is the best team in the league. Out of 19 100 win teams 9 have won championships and 6 lost in the finals 4 in the semifinals. But I almost always build teams with a weak back end of the starting rotation that lets me get 6 starts out of eight with better starting pitchers and a little more hitting for those particular pitchers in the playoffs. Subsequently my playoff record is better that the regular season by .012 while Nevs is worse by .015 that is 4 1/2 games equivalent over the course of a season so it is significant.

Many black boxes exists so I do not doubt that there could be some things happening to different people. I have noticed the changes that occur between games 100 and 121, but I think the playoffs are mostly clean from what I have seen.
Last edited by gkhd11a on Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gkhd11a

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 6:58 pm

As a study I looked at Event 3 100 Million DH in the 2021 Barnstormers. OUt o 17 leagues 204 teams 4 won 100 games or more manager and results were:

Rocket05 won 105 Games WON CHAMPIONSHIP
Maxpower won100 Games Lost in Finals Game 7
Hitman won 100 games WON CHAMPIONSHIP
MochaDog won 100 games lost in Semifinals (I was in this league and I lost in Finals, must admit I never had this team on my radar as the team to beat Frank Bailey won the championship, as I had feared in preseason)

I will go through a few more events, the Barnstormers offers good competition and playoff teams that usually feature experienced managers, so it is not as easy to get to 100 wins as many other leagues.
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