HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

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gkhd11a

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostTue Mar 22, 2016 11:33 pm

From the bullpen roles rules per Strat:
Available roles include:
Closer: Inning: 9+; Leading by 1-3 runs
Setup: Inning: 7-8; Leading by 1-3 runs
LH Specialist: Inning: 7+; Leading or trailing by 1-3 runs or tied; LH batters
RH Specialist: Inning: 7+; Leading or trailing by 1-3 runs or tied; RH batters
Tied & 9th+: Inning: 9+; Tied
Tied & Late: Inning: 7-8; Tied
Behind & Late: Inning: 7+; Trailing by 1-4 runs
Middle Man: Inning: 1-6; Leading or trailing by 1-4 runs or tied
Mopup: Any inning; Leading or trailing by 7+ runs
Closer vs. L: Inning: 8+; Leading by 1-3 runs; LH batters
Closer vs. R: Inning: 8+; Leading by 1-3 runs; RH batters

If Quis was set as closer and not Tied and 9+ he would not be brought in unless there was no other option as he had a designated role, so you best add him to Tied & Late and Tied and 9+ if you want him brought in, by definition the closer rule keeps him OUT of the game for a save situation, especially with Sutter tired as there is no other closer, not to bring him in. And if you want him brought in the 8th with a 1-3 run lead you need him set up for Setup as well, which will also reduce Sutters innings somewhat.
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Salty

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostWed Mar 23, 2016 12:08 am

so, what would be the purpose of designating normal vs. maximize for a closer?

Yeesh-
okay I found where you got that from--
ugh.
but thank you for the info.
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gkhd11a

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostWed Mar 23, 2016 12:28 am

Maximise would mean he could ONLY be used as a closer and will very rarely be brought in other games, I suspect if Sutter had not been tired Quis was more likely to have been brought in but since there was another alternative an 8R pitcher against righties HAL used it. HAL was saving QUIS in case you took the lead, since HAL had a 8R going against 3 righties he saw no need to change to the closer especially since Deberry was not at all tired and has pitches effectively against righties. If you do not want Deberry to pitch, which you must not mind too much as HAL has used him a lot when you have more than enough money to bring in a cheap starter with no reliever rating who would never be brought in, but on the other hand most of Deberry’s innings have been in games you have been getting killed in HAL saving the rest of your bullpen.

Another problem I see is that HAL went to the righty specialist when you had your best starting pitcher in, I would have Johnson set to slow hook and do not relieve before F8 in order to give your bullpen one rest day out of 4 to more likely avoid bullpen screwups.
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jet40

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostWed Mar 23, 2016 5:06 am

Salty wrote:Jet--

Dan Quisenberry was the option that should've been used.
He was FRESH--
If it was an issue of either Deberry or Klip then I wouldn't have posted,

BUT Quisenberry was just sitting there, hadn't pitched at all the previous game.


As gkhd11a pointed out, Quis was not really an option because of his closer role.
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Mathew Quigley

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostWed Mar 23, 2016 7:21 am

Deberry was doing fine. There was no need for HAL to bring him in. IF quick hook was on him and aggressive relief, then HAL would have subbed him after the first base runner or second one tops. I don't pick that many options on my relievers myself because I use starters who are 8 and 9 inning guys. I find if I use a bunch of options my starters get pulled to soon sometimes. If a reliever can go 3 or more innings like say Murray I will list him as setup and closer. Normally I don't check too many as it tends to confuse HAL. I know who I want for middle relief, mopup, r/l specialist, etc and just set it up so HAL has no brainers.
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Salty

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostWed Mar 23, 2016 10:18 am

gkhd11a wrote:Maximise would mean he could ONLY be used as a closer and will very rarely be brought in other games, I suspect if Sutter had not been tired Quis was more likely to have been brought in but since there was another alternative an 8R pitcher against righties HAL used it. HAL was saving QUIS in case you took the lead, since HAL had a 8R going against 3 righties he saw no need to change to the closer especially since Deberry was not at all tired and has pitches effectively against righties. If you do not want Deberry to pitch, which you must not mind too much as HAL has used him a lot when you have more than enough money to bring in a cheap starter with no reliever rating who would never be brought in, but on the other hand most of Deberry’s innings have been in games you have been getting killed in HAL saving the rest of your bullpen.

Another problem I see is that HAL went to the righty specialist when you had your best starting pitcher in, I would have Johnson set to slow hook and do not relieve before F8 in order to give your bullpen one rest day out of 4 to more likely avoid bullpen screwups.


Good advice!
I will take it.
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostThu Mar 24, 2016 4:23 pm

I think the key is to add the tied and late setting, as suggest by gkhd. This wasn't a closer situation (no lead), so HAL might actually have been discouraged in using Quiz because of his setting as closer (especially on Maxmize). That is, HAL would be saving him for a closer situation that never arose. For me, the priority would be to get my best RP into a close game, where he can have an impact, whether I'm ahead, tied, or behind by, say, a run.

Bill James did a study suggesting that using your best reliever (or in this case, best available RP) in a "Tied and Late" situation will have the greatest possible effect on changing the outcome of a game to a win. When you think about it, this makes a lot of sense. If your best RP can keep the other guys from scoring, and you get a run, you win. But if you give up a run, you lose--whereas in a closer situation (esp. 3 runs ahead) you're going to win most of the time anyway.

The current way closers are used in mlb is far from optimal--if the goal is to actually win baseball games. The reason it's become so popular with managers, IMHO, is that it provides an orthodoxy that prevents managers from being criticized and ultimately losing their jobs. But in SOM, we don't need to worry about that. You're not going to fire yourself.

So I would set Tied & Late for Sutter and then Quiz, if it were my team.
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jet40

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostThu Mar 24, 2016 4:37 pm

I have always been a supporter of Bill James when it comes to reliever usage.
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PhillyPhanatic

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostMon Mar 28, 2016 9:23 am

Outta Leftfield wrote:I think the key is to add the tied and late setting, as suggest by gkhd. This wasn't a closer situation (no lead), so HAL might actually have been discouraged in using Quiz because of his setting as closer (especially on Maxmize). That is, HAL would be saving him for a closer situation that never arose. For me, the priority would be to get my best RP into a close game, where he can have an impact, whether I'm ahead, tied, or behind by, say, a run.

Bill James did a study suggesting that using your best reliever (or in this case, best available RP) in a "Tied and Late" situation will have the greatest possible effect on changing the outcome of a game to a win. When you think about it, this makes a lot of sense. If your best RP can keep the other guys from scoring, and you get a run, you win. But if you give up a run, you lose--whereas in a closer situation (esp. 3 runs ahead) you're going to win most of the time anyway.

The current way closers are used in mlb is far from optimal--if the goal is to actually win baseball games. The reason it's become so popular with managers, IMHO, is that it provides an orthodoxy that prevents managers from being criticized and ultimately losing their jobs. But in SOM, we don't need to worry about that. You're not going to fire yourself.

So I would set Tied & Late for Sutter and then Quiz, if it were my team.


I am not going to disagree with Bill James. But aren't the odds that you will score a run in a tie situation about the same as giving up a run using your a non-closer pitcher?
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Valen

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Re: HAL???? are you gettin' senile???

PostTue Mar 29, 2016 7:43 pm

I am going to disagree with Bill James. Good example of a number cruncher not understanding humans.

A closer is a closer because human beings feel more pressure when pitching in the 9th and game on the line than they do say in the 7th and some people just do not handle that pressure well. Second reason I disagree is yes, you may bring in your best reliever in the 7th to squelch the rally and "save" the game but you have not saved the game. It is still going. Now after having shot your best bullet you are going to turn the game over to lesser relievers to try and preserve the game in the 8th and 9th. If they blow the game you cannot unpitch your best reliever. That wear and tear on the arm has already happened and is history. Now you have lost that game and maybe worse made your best reliever possible less available for the next game when once again the game may need saved.

Now in Strat you have a card. A piece of paper that is not going to get tired and not going to suffer arm injury from overuse. In real life these are real people with real bodies which will break down with overuse. A Bill James would use that real life human best reliever every game like it was a strat card at whatever inning there might be a rally. And let's face it more often than not somewhere in every close game there is a rally in some inning which does mean if you are going to turn to your best reliever for it he is pitching every game.

I was a Bill James fan years ago. But over the years as he has continued to spew things out and tried to make himself look brilliant (like the declaration there is no such thing as clutch in baseball or not such thing as being hot or being in a slump) that I am less impressed at time has gone by. And actually listening to him give opinions on the MLB network top 10 at each position I have lost almost all belief in his baseball opinions.
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