Anatomy of a Live Draft

So its going to be interesting because there are often things like what Druid is pointing out about good hitting and seemingly not so good pitching where the outcome should be X but often does not come out that way.

for ex. a few months back a team drafted all lefties, and many of them heavy like 5Rs and 6Rs with few platoons.
Think the manager made one trade for a righty lineup guy.
but those 5 R and 6 R guys ended up hitting lefties much better than their cards would indicate-- so...

In any case Druid is also correct that it does drive me nuts when people copy stuff, and almost worse when you show em first 5 picks from the week before were who you picked and they still give you that no I didn't response.

Hope this thread continues to get updated and also hope my team does not embarrassingly underperform.

Speaking of copying just want to mention the absolute worse case I ever saw. That league starts tonight. This "manager" Mike Stevens copied my 111 win Forbes 65 team in the autodraft exactly. Needless to say I ended up near the top in waivers as he actually got 15 of my original players from that team. (I didn't try to copy my own team but there are some guys that I like in Forbes' 65 at the cap in question). Anyway here are the two teams before tonight's games run (well hopefully run):

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1464726

Interestingly he left the team alone for the past few days and never bothered to update it. Must have been disappointing not to get all 25 players. He missed on Cobb, kept the wrong Speaker card and slavishly copied the Pop Lloyd pick, who I rarely ever use, and who overperformed for once for me. The only pitchers of mine that he got were Piniero, Zahn, McBean and Williams and that should seal his fate.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1465066

I ended up going in heavy for pitching, largely because I got some cheap values at a few positions like Davis, Ashburn etc. Hopefully I teach this clown a lesson. We'll see.

Druid and I both started out 2-1. I was at home against the other Minute Maid team in the division, Tiant took the loss allowing a couple of HR (both off the hitter's card, thanks). Curiously, with all my monstrous RH bats, the winning pitcher in this game was Ferdie Schupp, who I regard as one of the most overpriced cards in the set. Druid was on the road in Briggs 41 and lost to Ron Guidry. Mathewson got lit up in G1 (6 9 6 5 4 5 2) but his offense carried the day against Denny McLain. His 2nd win was against Gooden. So his 2-1 comes with an asterisk. It looks to me like JackofallParades is in for another bad LD experience. Going "all hitters" or "all pitchers" is a bad idea.

Unlike Druid and his impression of other managers, I have lists of players to take. I have been relatively inactive for a while, but a couple of the new cards and a revised methodology for evaluating cards at higher caps has raised my energy level for the game. I have added to the information I keep available on my lists recently, and I'm pretty sure this was my best LD ever. I still remember my first LD, back in ATG5. My first two picks were Hornsby and Eddie Collins, and my third was Honus Wagner. I still made the playoffs, though. I think I got swept in the first round.

I also enjoy battling Druid. He has taught me so much about this game. But we have entirely different styles - I am heavily analytic, and he is mostly a "feel" guy basing his decisions on his experience with various players. I am learning how to apply my numbers better by watching what he does. And although I slavishly evaluate every significant card for a number of ballparks, I violently disagree that differences between players on the magnitude of 1 WAR are significant when you consider how they fit into your overall lineup.

I am also amused that (a) people copy other managers' teams, and (b) that the other managers object. I had a stock team that I used a while back for several leagues, but I gave it up when I ran into such a weird set of opposing ballparks that I ended up changing my whole roster except for a couple of relievers and a backup catcher. I won a ring. This convinced me that in AD leagues, your AD card is simply a starting point for your final team. If you don't make changes based on the ballparks you will see and the opposing teams' personnel, you are doomed. Also of note - my Barnstormer's champion team only used about half the players I drafted on Dope.

I also disagree with Druid that the draft wasn't just about the two of us. For me, it quickly became that when my division mated all took RH hitters in the first two rounds (and Pedro). My limited ability to track what is going on during the draft causes me to focus almost entirely on who the teams in my division are taking. And in this case, I was clearly going to go with a lefty park and platoons, since that's the only way I can think of to get enough offense to survive in Minute Maid. Plus, it forces the other managers to adjust to me. I'm always happy to be the guy in the oddball ballpark. Curiously, I just won a ring in a league (sweeping Druid in the finals) where I was in Minute Maid and most everybody else was in a lefty park. (Druid was in my favorite park, Yankee 71. In my two finals games against him at his park, I scored 7 and 9 runs. In the two games at my park, I scored 2 and 4. Go figure.)

I usually look to grab Morgan, but I knew I was going to be platooning at multiple positions, and didn't want to give Druid the chance to whipsaw my lineups with his bullpen. He'll still do that, of course, but at least the scope for damage is limited by having Gibson, Caminiti, Larkin, and Barnes playing full time. And, like I said, 1 WAR is peanuts compared to the tactics of lineup construction.

Yeah, Craig swept me in the finals of the league that Nev returned in two days ago. It was a heavily lefty favoring league and he and GoReds dominated. I was fortunate to get past Goreds in the semi's but expected to get swept by Craig in the finals, my pitching matchups were a disaster against his Minute Maid team. I don't think that it is a good thing to be the oddball park, but Craig pulled it off.

Disagree with Craig about me not being highly analytic. I'm quite proficient with numbers. To be really good at anything you have to have thorough knowledge of your field. Only once that is achieved, then intuition becomes very helpful.

I always track the better managers in a live draft as well as where my division mates are headed. Most of my picks are instantaneous, unless the guy I want gets taken.

Disagree with Craig about me not being highly analytic. I'm quite proficient with numbers. To be really good at anything you have to have thorough knowledge of your field. Only once that is achieved, then intuition becomes very helpful.

I always track the better managers in a live draft as well as where my division mates are headed. Most of my picks are instantaneous, unless the guy I want gets taken.

yeah, id disagree on that as well-- have always found you to be very strong on analytics.
id characterize myself as being much less analytic and much more an intuitive player, which is why I often learn stuff from the more analytical folks.

as far as copying goes, perhaps that's why it bothers me so much when folks copy. I rely heavily on coming up with creative strategies that other folks aren't using and figuring out how to make them work. Making a big effort to do something only to have another player copy my LD choices from the week before is maddening; and when someone essentially picks the same first 5 out of 6 or 7 out of 8 players you took the week before (with the other one being similar) only to deny it, yeah it can be quite frustrating.

Salty is Nev's former protege. So like Nev, he relies on intuition and "feel" to make many of his decisions. Back in ATG III Bill Janssen, Nev, Adrian Gabriel and myself were tasked with repricing the set. Adrian, very much a numbers guy, was a fanatic for pricing based exclusively on a usage model. I was willing to incorporate that but was more interested in weighting player performance to determine price. Janssen could have been the ATG III version of rburgh and Nev was kind of the outlier, completely relying on his intuitive sense for what players were to be priced at. Bill and I kind of teamed up with our middle of the road approach and Adrian and Nev were both pretty inflexible, from my perspective. At the time Nev and I were less than friendly rivals, it was several years later that we became real friends. Sadly Adrian and Bill basically vanished from SOM and Nev just returned 9 weeks ago, after a year or two of not playing Strat at all, I believe after I managed to fan the flames of his intensely competitive spirit with a facebook post. Craig too was planning to severely curtail his involvement with the game but after we talked a bit a month or so ago he seems to have changed his mind. Glad both are here now!

Anyway, back to Salt. He is very creative at live drafts and spearheaded drafting Brett, Vaughan, and Morgan in the first round ( he always seems to get picks 9-11 in live drafts. I think he only got first pick once in drafts we both were in) and even I copied the Brett first round pick. But Salt also knows my favorite players and routinely grabs them early when he can and he is a giant pain in my ass in live drafts. But I know his tendencies like the back of my hand, so occasionally I return the favor . But we usually don't go after the same parks so we don't get in each other's way too much.

yeah that is all true.

rarely seem to go after similar teams-

although it can be a thorn, going after a guy I or anyone likes or takes a bunch isn't at all an issue-- hell its good strategy;
that's entirely different than copying strategies and players or someone's draft.

As I mentioned on another thread-- the fact that we are using different ways of doing things is what's great- and makes the game fun.
Its unfortunate that sometimes instead of putting our energy here into competing, it often gets taken elsewhere.

The fact that the 60 players taken in the first 5 rounds come from the same pool of 75 players in every unlimited cap LD has nothing to do with similar or identical rosters after 5 picks in different drafts. And taking players others like is strategic, unless someone does it to you - then it's copying.

Great thread except for the self-important bellyaching.

The fact that the 60 players taken in the first 5 rounds come from the same pool of 75 players in every unlimited cap LD has nothing to do with similar or identical rosters after 5 picks in different drafts. And taking players others like is strategic, unless someone does it to you - then it's copying.

Great thread except for the self-important bellyaching.

HAHH-- no, entirely incorrect. (esp so considering its the very next draft)
You are making this assertion based on exactly how many high cap level drafts you've participated in?

okay, then we can move on.

Well Salt, the question is who is the worse self-important bellyacher, you or me. I'm certainly more self-important than you, can't recall the last time someone accused me of excessive humility. I complain a lot, mostly about SOM and Garcia, but you complain more about copying. Could be a toss up.

Anyway it was nice of sjudd in his 16th post ever on this forum, to poison what has so far a been a thoughtful and civil thread by of course...bellyaching about bellyaching. The irony is exquisite. His "contribution"... well not so much.

People copying other peoples ideas is a part of the game for sure. Craig turned me on to Heredia, Nev to Shano Collins, way back when. You and Nev are probably bothered the most by it, it is irritating when it is done so in your face and someone copies your entire draft card. or your first bunch of picks from the previous live draft. In real life that sort of thing can be construed as plagiarism, copyright infringement and intellectual property theft. So while those offenses in no way apply to copying ideas at SOM, I do think that the social taboo of those notions from "real life" probably does tinge our visceral response to similar behaviors at SOM. It does make live drafts less interesting which is why I have cut back on them considerably the past few months. People substitute mindless imitation for skill and understanding, which in the end is only to their detriment but in the short term is just not much fun to experience.