Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

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FrankieT

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostFri Apr 29, 2022 11:14 pm

I think Charlie hit it squarely for me.
There are definitely some strange black box things that no one can explain fully because there is lacking transparency.

But, I think there is some possible confirmation bias with the 100 win team results.
100 win teams are generally powerhouses in their division. They are generally well matched to it too.

It is very plausible they wouldn't be well matched against another division opponent. My last four 100 win teams split--two lost in semis, two won finals.

I think it is also not ironclad that run diff is predictive in all situations. Real baseball is a little different due to the general amount of parity. Most of our leagues lack parity. And it is very easy to create statistical situations that are not normally distributed, such that the assumptions inherent in a W-L prediction from a run diff calc are not high confidence.
Whether it is due to that lack of parity creating outlier scores in some matchups, or just team composition (such as a smallball team that wins small and occasionally loses big), there are valid reasons that are possible.

Then again, I just had a playoff result that seemed to contain a lot of low probability results that were one sided...so...

But the momentum thing--I agree this falls somewhere in the black box of a Max Rules setting, and if SOM wants to disprove it, open the black box and let us see when "rolled" results have been altered to "correct the statistics".
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nevdully's

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 12:40 am

Tonight my 100 win team lost in the semis after holding a 3-1 games lead to a team I went 8-4 against in the regular season....so 30 out of 31 100 win teams have lost....I'm either the unluckiest man in ATG history or something else is in play...It's ridiculous.
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FrankieT

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 1:04 am

Well that is pretty ridiculous
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egvrich

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 7:27 am

Charlie's point about building to beat your division probably does have merit, but ONLY in 12 team leagues.

I think the real test would be 24 teams leagues, since it's not nearly as relevant in 24 team leagues!

So how have 100 win teams in 24 team leagues fared could be a helpful bit of info ... :?: :idea:
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chuckwonup

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 7:31 am

31 out of 32 yea is incredible. Don't really know how to explain something like that. Kinda leaves everything in the air and nobody wants the reason that it is fixed. We are a limited sample but it would be interesting to see how others weigh in.
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King-Charlemagne

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50 League 600 Team Sample Results

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 7:38 am

I looked at my 50 most recently completed leagues. This coverered a sample size of 600 teams (all twelve team leagues). What I found out was just how rare the 100 win team is. Congratulations to those teams reaching 100 as it is rare.

Out of 50 leagues/600 teams, only 13 teams won at least 100 games in those leagues. Of those, five won a championship, four lost in the finals and four lost in the semi finals.
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Salty

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 9:29 am

nevdully's wrote:Tonight my 100 win team lost in the semis after holding a 3-1 games lead to a team I went 8-4 against in the regular season....so 30 out of 31 100 win teams have lost....I'm either the unluckiest man in ATG history or something else is in play...It's ridiculous.


the odds of this happening naturally are pretty ****n' infinitesimal.
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gkhd11a

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSat Apr 30, 2022 11:11 am

egvrich wrote:Charlie's point about building to beat your division probably does have merit, but ONLY in 12 team leagues.

I think the real test would be 24 teams leagues, since it's not nearly as relevant in 24 team leagues!

So how have 100 win teams in 24 team leagues fared could be a helpful bit of info ... :?: :idea:


In the last 3 years of Barnstormers there has been seven 24 team leagues and 2 had 100 win teams, one won the championship Dougess Hellions https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/scores/postseason/452140the other lost in quarterfinal to the eventual champion https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/scores/postseason/457826
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Courtneylant

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSun May 01, 2022 7:55 am

Wait, what? don't get me wrong, i love reading about the conspiracy theories, but i feel like the algorithm strat would need for this would be way too complex. for them to alter the combination of rolls to influence win/loss outcomes starting at game 120, or when one time has too many wins, or a there are newbies in the league. no way.

with the C&D game (where no algorithms are in play), who hasn't seen stats even out over the long haul? players struggling 40 games in only to go nuts and come back to their expected stats. when the same thing happens in 365 of course your team may go on a streak. i had a '27 Gehrig start 0-30 one year and my team stunk. he finished top 5 in the MVP voting and my team naturally picked it up after his slow start.

i feel there's something to the fact that we all have the same salary caps and therefore all tend to perform within .480 - .520 win percentages. this of course would lend itself to some streaks with the luck of the roll. you can see some teams tank of course when they make too many moves or fatigue their starters/bullpens, or just flat out are not set up to compete with their division make up. otherwise it all seems very random - and FUN - to me.
-Alexander Supertramp
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Salty

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Re: Every One of My 13 100+ Win Teams in ATG9

PostSun May 01, 2022 8:45 am

Courtneylant wrote:Wait, what? don't get me wrong, i love reading about the conspiracy theories, but i feel like the algorithm strat would need for this would be way too complex.


Actually, no -
you probably should read up on 'normalization' which is an admitted part of the computer game.

Lets begin with a basic concept.
Since there are no actual dice, every single 'roll' is simply a percentage chance.
Its pretty simple to alter percentages by X number of points plus or minus based on all sorts of things.

How do you think 'fatigue', which gets progressively worse,
OR
the Home Field .5% advantage works?
Just TWO of MANY examples...

Think, people, THINK!!!
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