Is HAL conservative tagging up from third?

A fast team should always be set to VERY AGGRESSIVE in this game. That will increase your attempts to score from 3rd on a flyball.

This is indeed great data. And it suggests that success rates are higher when a runner tags up than on other baserunning plays, even though attempt rates are also higher. This is consistent with the rule that "On attempts for home with a FLY ( )B? add +2" to the runner's rating.

I set pretty much all my teams, fast or slow, to AGGRESSIVE and get overall success rates around 78-82%, depending on the speed of the team. Faster teams both try to advance and succeed at advancing at higher rates.

So now I'm wondering, along Rich's lines, whether I should I be going with VERY AGGRESSIVE on my faster teams? BTW, I find that my teams in higher salary caps are often faster than lower caps. I think that's because high priced players are better at everything, including baserunning. For example, a 175M team has Lajoie, Larkin, Duffy, and Mays (all 1-17), as well as Sosa and Gates Brown (1-14) and then slower guys at C, 1B, 3B.

Maybe I should set this team at VERY AGGRESSIVE, despite some strong opposing OF arms? Halfway through the season, my total baserunning numbers are 184 Opp / 80 Adv / 22 Out. This makes for a 78.4% success rate, but with less than 50% of my opportunities turned into advance attempts. Not surprisingly, my fast guys make the most attempts and succeed more frequently. One hesitation with going to Very Aggressive is whether I'll be pushing my catcher to make more baserunning attempts, since even the few he tries often result in outs.

BTW, I think SOM's baserunning rules seem realistic and reasonable:

Modifications for Baserunner Advancement

The possible changes to a batter's baserunning rating are as follows:

1, add or subtract the number in parenthesis following the outfield position found at the top of the involved defensive outfielder's card from the running rating of the involved baserunner. To identify the outfielder in question refer to the outfield symbol following the single or double reading on the batter or pitcher's card involved. In the event that there is no outfield symbol assume the throw to be made by the centerfielder.
2. Add +2 if there is two outs when advancing on Singles and Doubles,
3, On attempts for third base: subtract -2 if the left fielder is making the throw, add +2 if the right fielder is making the throw.
4. On attempts for home with a FLY ( )B? add +2.
The combined running rating with all possible modifications cannot be lower than 1 nor higher than 19.

Best way to check that higher cap is do it and measure. Adjust. DMAIC

But overall, yes. Very aggressive is almost always correct at low to mid caps and a "fast" team. Typical smallball style for me:

100M
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1717113
88% success against a 62% opportunity rate and it scales down to the slowest guy to 40% opportunity rate and 60% success rate. As you alluded. Slowest guy is catcher, but I try for catchers that are 13+ runners on smallball teams.

80M
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1631120
87% success against a 60% opportunity rate

60M
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1690101
92% success against a 69% opportunity rate

As long as folks think that (+) arms are fine in the OF because HRs matter more than extra bases, smallball will continue to be an effective asymmetric counter to most strategies at low to mid caps. Especially because effective smallball guys are generally cheaper than a HR hitting platoon, all performance considered.

And--the tendency toward highly one-sided relief pitchers is a juicy option when you can bust a crapload of hits against a guy who is tired, then with a batting order that is L-R-L-R with every day guys and it is effective, especially when you use guys that are spread across the order more evenly with OBA rather than studs and scrubs approach of a HR team.

At higher caps it gets difficult because there are guys like Mays, Speaker, etc who are all going to be used and typically almost every OF arm is solid. At least that is my bias. Could be wrong