How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

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Outta Leftfield

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 11:27 am

I think that, aside from other things, there's a matter of personal style. In other words, what kind of team do you like to create, or what style of team are you good at?
When I started playing SOM a long time ago, I thought I would be focusing on pitching and defense and OBP. But after a few teams, I began to realize that what I seemed to be best at was contructing teams that could score runs. So I began to shift my focus toward hitting and scoring.
I also feel as if top-level defensive players tend to be a little over-priced, at least in the context of 80M or 100M caps. And there are teams in any leagues that will score a ton of runs, so from my point of view, you need a positive run differential against your rivals in order to win. There are different ways to do that, and find a why that works for you at a particular cap or in a particular park.
My own approach is to focus on offense and starting pitching more or less equally, with as much defense and BP as I can manage. And to get the most out of team at a particular cap, I look at player value. I won't use a 3 at SS or 2B except as a platoon righty vs LHP (e.g, I"m OK with Mariano Duncan). At 1B or SS or even C, I will use a 4 if they can really hit and fit my team concept. I'm also OK with 4s at the OF corners, if they can make a real offensive contribution. So, good defense is always a plus, but it's not a dominant factor for me. This is my personal style--it might not work for others. And it works better on some of my teams than it does on others.
One thing I look at when assessing one of my teams is what I call the four battles: the hit battle, the walk battle, the HR battle, and the error battle. If you're going to win, you need to be way ahead on at least one of these battles. You can directly compare your own hits, walks and HR with your opponents when you check you team roster. With a small ball team, you're probably going to lose the HR battle, so you need to win the hit battle by A LOT, and stay as close to even as you can with the walk battle. You can't compare your own errors with the errors in your team's favor, but you can compare your errors with the average errors per team on the league fielding page, and the errors in your team's favor are probably close to the league average of errors per team.
One useful facet of this approach is that your team's "hits allowed" reflects both fielding and pitching. If you're getting fewer hits than opponent teams, it might be a factor of pitching or fielding or both. If this happens frequently, then you want to adjust your approach. OTOH, if you're getting MORE hits than opponents, then your fielding/hitting balance is probably a good one. It's also important, of course, to look closely at HR and walks--but it's the hit and error battles where fielding comes into play.
Coming back to where I started from on the four battles, I find that it's OK to be about even in one of the four battles and to trail slightly in another as long as you win the other two battles decisively.
One way to study how opposing managers do it is to look at the Barnstormer League pages. Those teams are a matter of public record, so you can study them at your leisure.
Last edited by Outta Leftfield on Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 12:06 pm

One thing I might add is that the error battle is probably the least important, to me at least, of the four battles.
AS I see it, you aren't going to win or lose the error battle by more than say +/- 25 errors. But, you could win or lose the hit or home run battle by +/- 200. The walk battle tends to go +/- 50, but you don't want to lose that one by a lot.
All in all, if you win the hit battle decisively and break more or less even in the error battle, your hitting/pitching/fielding balance is probably OK. Then you have to worry about the HR and BB battles.
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Big Fred Whitfield

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 12:20 pm

dang, I thought I was trying, I thought I was doing ok

but, I dunno Diamond Dope, and I dunno (even tho can understand) the varying theories espoused, so it totally feels like we're playing a game of marbles but you guys are using asteroid-sized boulders, when I'm defending with Fruity Pebbles ;- /
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Mattw0909

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 2:17 pm

Big Fred, there’s more than one way to skin this cat. Looking at your profile you’re ahead of a lot of people with your experience. A lot of people on here will go very deep with the preparation in building a team. And while there’s not necessarily a right formula I will say the people who dive deeper are usually the better players. I also don’t use diamond dope. I’m content with how good I’ve become at this and consider myself to be pretty decent at this, but the greats, the greats use diamond dope and spread sheets and formulas and all kinds of different processes. I agree a lot with what left field has said above. And with sweet swing also. But even with that being said there’s no exact way to do this and every league is very very different.
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roniwas

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 4:40 pm

How do you guys feel about injuries. I mean, black 1’s and lower vs all the greens. Especially the black 1. I believe the black 1 only has a 33% chance of being injured for more than 3 games. Is that correct? I generally avoid anything that’s not green. Thoughts.
Ron
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Sweet Swinging 26

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 5:18 pm

roniwas wrote:How do you guys feel about injuries. I mean, black 1’s and lower vs all the greens. Especially the black 1. I believe the black 1 only has a 33% chance of being injured for more than 3 games. Is that correct? I generally avoid anything that’s not green. Thoughts.
Ron


Anything that isn't green is subject to a 15 game injury.
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Outta Leftfield

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostFri Nov 01, 2024 9:55 pm

Below is the Super-Advanced Injury Chart, with splits from 1 to 20. Players with 600+ PA (italic green 1) can be injured for no more than 3 games. Splits of 14 or above result in a 3 game inj only.
Players with a bold green 0 cannot be injured at all. Players with a bold green 1 can only be injured for the remainder of the game. So the chart as a whole applies to the standard black 1s (599 PA or less)
It's worth noting that a player rated standard 1 will only be injured for more than 5 games 1/4 of the time, and will be injured for 2 or fewer games more than half the time. A 15 game injury only happens 1 time in 20. So, in my mind, a 1 rated hitter is not facing a radical risk. Most 1 injury regulars post 600+ PA, and some approach or exceed 700 in a given season. I just looked at the regular 1s on a randomly chosen 100M team of mine. Schmidt played in 159 games (680 PA). Arky 159 games (754 PA). Dihigo 145 games (632 PA). W Brown 157 games (654 PA). These results are not untypical. (BTW PA here is AB + BB). For me, if I like a player, I'm willing to take the risk of a 1 inj.
But people's risk tolerance varies. Keep in mind that injury risk is figured into player cost.
https://www.dougburgett.net/strat/injury.html
Super-Advanced Injury Chart
Ok = Player not injured. REM = Player injured for the remainder of this game. * = If the total of this players at-bats plus walks is greater than 599 ignore the result next to the * and consider this player to be injured for 3 games.

Split Injury
1 OK
2 OK
3 REM
4 REM
5 1
6 1
7 1
8 1
9 2
10 2
11 2
12 3
13 3
14 4*
15 5*
16 6*
17 7*
18 8*
19 10*
20 15*
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MaxPower

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostSat Nov 02, 2024 3:15 am

roniwas wrote:How do you guys feel about injuries. I mean, black 1’s and lower vs all the greens. Especially the black 1. I believe the black 1 only has a 33% chance of being injured for more than 3 games. Is that correct? I generally avoid anything that’s not green. Thoughts.
Ron

Black 1s are the best value. Greens tend to be overpriced IMO, which I actually like because it punishes risk aversion and I feel like most managers are risk averse. Everyone fixates on the low-percentile outcomes of the black 1s who get hurt a bunch but we tend not to notice when they get hurt less than expected.
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Sweet Swinging 26

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostSat Nov 02, 2024 8:31 am

MaxPower wrote:
roniwas wrote:How do you guys feel about injuries. I mean, black 1’s and lower vs all the greens. Especially the black 1. I believe the black 1 only has a 33% chance of being injured for more than 3 games. Is that correct? I generally avoid anything that’s not green. Thoughts.
Ron

Black 1s are the best value. Greens tend to be overpriced IMO, which I actually like because it punishes risk aversion and I feel like most managers are risk averse. Everyone fixates on the low-percentile outcomes of the black 1s who get hurt a bunch but we tend not to notice when they get hurt less than expected.


You selectively only remember the negative.

But from my personal experience, those 15 game injuries happen a whole lot more than 5% of the time.
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Toady

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Re: How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

PostSat Nov 02, 2024 12:26 pm

Out of mild curiosity, I checked two recently completed leagues I was in. I added up the total number of injuries to all "non-green injury rated" players for all 12 teams. In one league there were 4 15-game injuries out of 113 possibilities. In the second league there were 3 15-game injuries out of 89 possibilities. Two examples are not statistically significant, but I really do not believe that SOM programs 15-game injuries to occur more than 5% of the time.

What I did learn, as Max said, a fair number of managers really are risk averse in the players they select.
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