Public leagues

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RiggoDrill

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 21, 2020 6:19 pm

cristano1 wrote:The [1] left side of Combs card is worse than some 700k platoon CFs. Not only is Combs terrible vs LHP, it is actually a detriment to one's team to even have him in the lineup.

[2] Assuming a league with 40% LHSP and 60% RHSP, I have Ashburn worth 0.2 wins more than Combs vs RHSP and 1.2 wins more against LHSP. That's a net impact of 1.4 wins in the aggregate!!! [3] For the same price. Same spend, 1.4 more wins is such a huge differential for just one player.

So a few things here...

[1] Combs hitting vs. lefties may suck, but he's still 1e10 in the field
[2] In the league I'm playing, I expect Combs to face 25% LHP / 75% RHP
[3] Price is not the only factor. Because Ashburn is so popular, you typically need to burn your #1 draft pick to get him (I've been in leagues where 3 or 4 different managers had Ashburn #1). Thus it is unusual to acquire Ashburn without passing up another high-value player. Combs on the other hand, is typically an available FA.

Certain players seem to break my ratings model. I'm not a big fan of Combs, nonetheless, I think he's underpriced because of the +3 arm. He's useful in certain situations.
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The Last Druid

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 21, 2020 6:34 pm

Combs was a cornerstone of this team's success. Of course they lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team with a losing record and a -67 run differential so there is that.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1519271

When was the last time Ashburn knocked in 112 runs while scoring 139 himself? I'm betting never.
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RiggoDrill

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 21, 2020 6:38 pm

WOW! 260 hits, 139 runs, 112 RBI, and a .375 batting average. If he produces anything close to that for me, I'll be quite happy. 8-)
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STEVE F

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 21, 2020 6:48 pm

I love it when the heavyweights start debating! :D
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FrankieT

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 21, 2020 8:00 pm

STEVE F wrote:I don't see how anyone could not think that Combs is underpriced. His problem is , where do you bat him?
Not quite enough OB to lead off, lots of hits but negative clutch. extra base hits but no real power.


OK was typing on a phone...making some edits...

I think that’s spot on. I never feel he has a place in the lineup but in limited application, he can be great. I bat him in front of a bigger hitter and behind higher OBP. And I may use kreevich or similar against hard lefties. But am perfectly happy with combs against reverse lefties in a pitchers park. But i dont like platoons that are that lopsided unless the matchups support the cost. If low enough cap, he plays every day.

As for seeing manager stadiums, I am not able to do that and I don't do any of the stuff marc spoke about. And I don't care to know. Thats why I posted my stadium out there. I prob wont change it. As petro stated, not worth it. If you want to copy another stadium that would be a weird choice. In fact, stating your stadium may inspire less competition for the players you seek. And if it's a bunch of minute maids, what is better...join the crowd and try to find values or be an outlier? Not a straightforward decision unless you know the divisional makeup, in my opinion.

Chompsky jump back in!
Last edited by FrankieT on Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FrankieT

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 21, 2020 9:20 pm

The Last Druid wrote:Combs was a cornerstone of this team's success. Of course they lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team with a losing record and a -67 run differential so there is that.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1519271

When was the last time Ashburn knocked in 112 runs while scoring 139 himself? I'm betting never.


Proof positive that the idea Combs has zero value is...well perfectly fine because it is nice that he is always available!
Thanks for this data point. Straight talk as always
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Public leagues

PostWed Jan 22, 2020 10:50 am

In my ratings, assuming a full season of Forbes Fields in the context of 100M, and assuming 30% of lefty pitching, Ashburn is worth 7 runs better than Combs. 7 runs might not sound a lot, but it's substantial. If you get an edge of 7 runs at every position, you end up with a 6 win edge over your average opponent.


This said, context always plays a lot.

60M is much different than 100M: managers rely on weaker pitchers. These pitchers allow more homeruns on their cards. Combs is normal vs rhp, whereas Ashburn is weak. The more games in non-Fields stadiums, the weaker the edge. There are probably leagues where Combs has better value than Ashburn.

In the season posted by Petrosian, Combs hit 8 homeruns. If I got it right, one came clean from his card in Forbes Field, all 7 others came from pitchers' card or from playing in stadiums allowing more power. I think it's safe to presume that Ashburn would have gotten that clean homerun on his card, but he would have missed the others. The 7 extra homeruns that Combs had already make up for the 7 run differences: 7 hrs typically produce 9.8 runs, whereas 7 singles (the result Ashburn would have gotten) are typically worth 3.1 runs.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: Public leagues

PostTue Jan 28, 2020 3:37 pm

Bump for Mr. Brown.
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