1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

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Hittmens

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostMon Aug 14, 2017 4:12 pm

Odds of losing 9 straight series if teams were completely equal is 1 in 512. 10 in a row would be 1 in 1024. That being said I won my 10th series.
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blineimages

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostTue Aug 22, 2017 4:26 pm

Well I just revisited this in the threads, and it blew my mind ---- I thought it was a extraordinary odds against event that happens once in forever.
Yet the same thing has recently happened to me.

Of the past 11 seasons, 8 of my teams have gone to the playoffs. All 8 of these playoff teams lost (7 in the semi's, 1 in the finals)

I truly thought that it was just a far out anomaly.

Now that I read this, I am all but certain that it is something else. To have this happen to two different owners in the same relative time frame, is way over odds of thousands to 1--it is virtually impossible.

( I have won 45 championships in the past, both as blineimages and under my other owner name) -- my playoffs to Championship ratio in 140-45, so my teams win a championship about 1 out of every 3 times my teams get to the playoffs.

so does this mean that STRAT has some built in code/scripting that makes this happen? Is it a ploy to get owners to buy more teams to pursue finally getting a championship?

I won't answer that, but I will say this.

I currently have a team that just went into the playoffs (and is down 0-2 in games, a team that I split with during the season)---so if this team loses, it will be the 9th straight playoff appearance (out of 12 seasons) without a win.

I have another team that is in first, and looks to be headed to the playoffs shortly as well.
and I have 3 more teams in play, one that won't get to the playoffs (that team is a Phillies franchise team), and two teams that started their seasons last night.

If my current team that is in the playoffs loses, and the team I have shortly going into the playoffs loses, that would make 10 playoff team losses out of 13 of my past seasons.

Will keep you posted.
Last edited by blineimages on Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rburgh

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostTue Aug 22, 2017 5:45 pm

It takes different kinds of teams to win in the regular season vs. in the playoffs. Being able to match up against a particular starter is very important when you are playing 1 or 2 games per night. Similarly you want to reexamine your bullpen roles against certain opponents.
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blineimages

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostTue Aug 22, 2017 7:18 pm

rbrugh,

agree whole heartedly, and thanks for your comment.

as a winner of 45 championships, I think I have a fairly good knowledge base on how to manage my bullpen and lineups and how to maximize match ups with opponents.
I have for a long time, setup my bullpen, lineups and starters on a nightly basis, that's half the fun.

I always look at all the season games against an opponent who I am facing in the playoffs, and also take the time to see how that opponent did against other teams, in other ballparks, against other starters. (thats what the 3 day break between season end and playoff beginning is all about)

I am meeting tonight with a good friend of mine who is a mathematician, am interested in her read on all this.
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blineimages

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostWed Aug 23, 2017 12:11 pm

After tonight's 9th straight playoff loss, I edited this post. Losing my 9th straight playoff in a row does that to a guy....
please accept my apologies if this now breaks the continuity of the thread.

Conversation with my friend Carolyn:

She told me what if you flip the paradigm, look at the stats and data not from a customer perspective, but from a game company perspective. I asked what she meant.
She said look, STRAT has access to all this data, they know what time of year owners buy more teams, what the sales breakdown is by region, by skill level, by team performance etc.
I wasn't following her.
She continued---STRAT is in business to make money, they would be negligent if they did not look at the data that they have and find ways to increase sales.
Then she dropped the bombshell.
"In looking at your team purchases, its there in black and white. You purchase a lot more teams when you are losing playoffs then when you are winning"
Boom. I look at my teams and there it was in spades, she was absolutely right. I was stunned. I wondered how many other owners did the same as I did.
Last edited by blineimages on Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hittmens

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostWed Aug 23, 2017 3:19 pm

great points however two points
The odds of heads coming on the 9th roll after 8 straight tails are 1 out of 2.
However the odds of heads coming out 9 times in a row is 1 in 512.
Also if Strat cant even get the computer manager to pinch hit for a pitcher when a relief pitcher is starting the next inning, do you really think they are capable of figuring out who to let win to increase sales.
And also although I just stopped a 9 series losing streak, and I am 3-10 in first round series on the other side of the coin so to speak I am currently 3-0 in finals. :?
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egvrich

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostWed Aug 23, 2017 8:34 pm

Recently had this team win 107 games (next best team was 97). They led the league in a variety of categories including: run differential, batting avg, OBP, fielding %, stolen bases, double plays turned, pitching and maybe a few more.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1458467

They played an opponent in the Semis that they were 8-4 against in the regular season, 4-2 at home, 4-2 on the road.

They got swept in 4 games and outscored 36-8 in the process.

Basically, the best pitching and fielding team in the league gave up 9 RUNS A GAME in Griffith '41 and Griffith '24 (and only managed to score 8 runs TOTAL in the 4 game series).

That one hurt! I'd love to hear the mathematical explanation for that ... LOL.
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blineimages

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostThu Aug 24, 2017 1:03 am

Tonight Just lost my 9th straight playoffs in a row.--4 games to 1, to a team that we tied with during the regular season series . I had Veale pitching tonight, in a lefty park against a lefty lineup. Earlier in the playoffs, Veale faced this team and held them to 1 run, and lost. During the season, he totally dominated them. And then he ends up losing two games to them in the semis.

egvrich--now i have to agree with you 100%.

Here are my 9 teams that have lost consecutively in the playoffs since my last Championship with the Cadillac Fleetwoods

Aspect Ratios ATG8 postWW2 $80M lost Semi-Finals Boys of Summer (lost tonight)
Kinda Lahinas ATG 8 $80M lost Semi-Finals 80 MILLION DH
Missing Links ATG8 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 432278
Somethings Afoot ATG8 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 432265
4Bagger Vances ATG8 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 432115
Fence Breakers ATG8 $80M lost Semi-Finals Winter Ball
Nikonic Canons ATG8 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 431802
Panovision Primes 60s $80M lost Finals Auto League 431781
Last Stands 2015 $80M lost Semi-Finals Auto League 431688

Cadillac Fleetwoods 60s $80M CHAMPS Auto League 431557
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egvrich

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostThu Aug 24, 2017 8:46 am

Regretfully, I'm one of the oldest conspiracy theorists out there and have believed since ATG 1 that there is "stuff" going on behind the scenes that we are not aware of.

My 3 personal favorites theories are:

#1 - Certain teams are "pre-determined" to succeed while others are destined to fail, without regard to how well the team is constructed.

#2 - Certain random players are "pre-determined" to get injured over and over again.

#3 - HAL has something built in to the code to encourage people to keep buying credits, just give them a taste and hook them. Or maybe allow struggling coaches to win "against the odds" to peak their interest and get them hooked before they get discouraged and quit the game altogether.
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STEVE F

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Re: 1-8 in my last 9 Finals ... Why does HAL hate me?

PostThu Aug 24, 2017 12:29 pm

Then it begs the question "why do you play"? If I thought any of that crap was true for a SECOND, I would never play again.
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