3 and Out

A sad day Michael - fhere aren't that many of us left that were playing in YR 1. I'm down to 1 or 2 teams total now and just don't have the fire for it that I once did when I was setting my alarm for 1 am so I could swoop players in the "frenzy" Good luck, amigo.

-Drew

Drew don't be sad, turns out there's porn on the internet..I'm not sad.

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOLLL!!!!

Cause ya know, Porn goes from Really GOOD, to Really Bad to Okay again-- Just like Brady Anderson--

BTW-

Marc, you cant compare 3 different brady anderson seasons to 3 seasons using the same card...

Who's Nev?

Just to finish about Bonds probability to hit 100 or whatever homeruns.

Here is a calculator that does all the work for you.

http://stattrek.com/m/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

First line is the probability to hit a homerun. Based on a few assumptions, I have for Bonds 0.116 (25 chances of homerun on 216 overall chances).
Second line is the number of PA over the course of a season: let's say 710 (although we should have in mind that a few theme leagues might have more than that for Bonds)
Third line is the number of homeruns you'd like to calculate the probability for.

110 homeruns or more? 0,11% chance to happen. After 1153 seasons, it should have happen once. It did twice.

100 homeruns or more? 2,46% chance to happen. Roughly 28 times.

60 homeruns or less? 0,4%, roughly 5 times only.

50 homeruns or less? Never...probabilistically.

There is a flaw of course. Bonds probability to hit a homerun is not always set at 0,116; it could go higher or lower, based on stadium and opponents. But the similarity between these numbers and Maxie results are stunning...

So...


1) Sometimes the chance is higher-- ERGO at least ONCE he should've topped 120+
(Since it can be higher than 28 with 20BPHR)

2) Your impossibility of under 50 did actually occur.

So once again, it went low but not high. Your stats actually illustrate the point that something else is involved.

Earlier rburgh says "Sorry to see you go, Nev. But you have never understood the mathematical fact that, if nothing weird ever happened (i.e. Bonds always hit from 75-95 HR and your starting pitchers always had ERAs that were in order of salary), THAT would be evidence that there was something fishy going on."

I've said a whole bunch of times...I understand that anything can happen once in a blue...but that stuff seems to happen far more frequently than once in a blue.

Salty,

I guess I didn't make myself clear enough, I precisely said there is a flaw...that Bonds cannot always have a 17% probability to hit a homerun.

Let's assume that Bonds has played a full season at AT&T (HR=1/1), and let's assume that he faced 40% of lefties, and that no opponent pitchers allowed more than 0.6 chances of homeruns . His probability to hit a homerun goes down to 8.6%, far lower than 17%.

What is the probability then that Bonds hit 50 homeruns or less? 5.9%!!!!

In 1153 seasons, that should have happened 68 times!!

I think it's pretty obvious that all the results we've seen, including his 47 homeruns season, is well within the realm of statistical possibilities.

Salty,

I guess I didn't make myself clear enough, I precisely said there is a flaw...that Bonds cannot always have a 17% probability to hit a homerun.

Let's assume that Bonds has played a full season at AT&T (HR=1/1), and let's assume that he faced 40% of lefties, and that no opponent pitchers allowed more than 0.6 chances of homeruns . His probability to hit a homerun goes down to 8.6%, far lower than 17%.

What is the probability then that Bonds hit 50 homeruns or less? 5.9%!!!!

In 1153 seasons, that should have happened 68 times!!

I think it's pretty obvious that all the results we've seen, including his 47 homeruns season, is well within the realm of statistical possibilities.

Exactly.

Exactly what?

Everything is statistically possible, that's a flawed argument.

I believe the problem in your calculations is that you aren't taking into account BONDS in Polo 41 where his home run chances are GREATER than 25 in 216.

So if I understand this correctly its 28.25 out of 108 ABs vs righties on Bonds card-- and since we dont know the pitchers card we cant include that.
So...yeah, you can include whatever you want but likely there are SOME leagues where hes facing mostly RHSPs, and likely some leagues where there is a lot of bad pitchers--
so YEAH at LEAST a few times he should've hit 120 +

If Bonds play in 1000 leagues in Polo and faced only RH pitching and never had any other park than Polo, assuming a 50/50 pitcher card, no injuries during the season (710 Plate Appearances) no lefties to bat against, Bonds would than on average get 1 120 game or greater of home runs for every 1000 leagues played. Of course that means it is a 50/50 chance in that circumstance that you would get that 1 game in a 1000 in that circumstance.

Of course Nev has 378 championships in 2012 leagues and according to the random percentages with a 1 in 12 chance that and plug into the odds calculator this is an impossibility and should never happen, as a matter of fact even 250 should never happen so what can we conclude from that?

1) Nev understands how to utilize players far far better than the average player, as a matter of fact if you are in a league the actual odds for a random player in a league with Nev to get the championship would be picking like up a pair of dice and have to role a 4 to win a championship bet while Nev gets to roll a 2 or a 7 and win. You can be sure if you rolled 3 fours in a row Nev would be unhappy about how it is possible that in this world a 4 could possibly come up three times in a row, with whatever lousy players that mortal happen to assemble on his teams.

2) Assuming then that Nev is not manipulating nor someone manipulating game results for him, Nev has statistically proven through years of dedication that he must therefore know how to consistently pick cards that perform far better than other players who pick cards in the parks he decides to play. The result of this is that over his career Nev has received over 1100 free credits from his play. This is by far the most of any player and quite an impressive career feat if this happens to be his last hurrah

3) Bonds has always been a favorite for Nev so I doubt there is a propensity for the card to underperform, as if that was true Nev would not kick the communities ass on a continual basis with a propensity to own the Bonds card, but sometimes 4 is rolled 3 times in a row.

4) Nev should just keep playing as most players will never be able to adapt to the changes in the game that go on over time as well as he does.

5) In order to lure Nev back we should have a Bonds On Steroids league with the following rules:
A) only right handed pitchers allowed with a minimum of 5 chances for BP homeruns against lefty hitters including relievers
B) All parks must have a 20 for BPHR against lefties Fulton County is heavily suggested as the extra hits for righties and lefties will increase Bonds plate appearances
C) Nev gets Bonds everything else within rules is up for grabs
D) 100 million dollar league
P.S. If Bonds were to get 800 plate appearances in this league it is 50/50 that he would have 120 home runs so leading him off (hint hint might help)

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