Re: NERP and Catcher Defense
Posted: Tue May 16, 2023 7:35 am
you're a {content removed for uncertainty} barrmorris--thanks
As for the answer. It is 42.
As for the answer. It is 42.
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Arm | SB Strategy | Avg. SB | Avg. CS | Avg. SB% | Avg. Runs Allow. |
-5 | Normal | 33.9 | 14.3 | 70.4% | 882 |
+5 | Normal | 120.8 | 33.6 | 78.3% | 871 |
-5 | Ex. Conserv. | 21.1 | 7.5 | 73.7% | 870 |
+5 | Ex. Conserv. | 86.2 | 17.9 | 82.8% | 865 |
FrankieT wrote:the double entendre(?) on that is pretty funny
Range | Blocking ? | Mean | 80% CI | 95% CI |
1 | No | 874 | +/- 52 | +/- 93 |
5 | No | 886 | +/- 57 | +/- 93 |
1 | Yes | 867 | +/- 45 | +/- 69 |
5 | Yes | 888 | +/- 50 | +/- 76 |
Range | Blocking ? | Diff. | 80% CI | 95% CI |
1 vs 5 | No | -11 | +/- 8 | +/- 17 |
1 vs 5 | Yes | -20 | +/- 7 | +/- 15 |
1 | Yes vs no | -7 | +/- 7 | +/- 15 |
5 | Yes vs no | 2 | +/- 8 | +/- 17 |
barrmorris wrote:MaxPower wrote:Oh I didn't even notice that result lab pointed out. Seems bad from a game design standpoint...HAL's SB logic is clearly borked if weaker arms are preventing more runs than stronger arms.
You can't conclude that from this data. The differences are not statistically significant which means that there is some chance that they are samples from a distribution with the same mean. The difficulty in measuring the impact of a small factor (like catcher's arm) on runs is that the standard deviation of runs is around 40. I'm skeptical of the results for runs allowed by arm strength with Extra Conservative SB strategy. Other analysis I've done of run values suggests that success rates this high should produce positive value for SBs. I may run more simulations, but this is a tedious process.
Hack Wilson wrote:So, on this team of mine, my lefty platooner Smoky Burgess (+1) has given up 20 steals, but caught 18 runners for outs.
Whereas my righty platooner Steve Lake (-2) has only given up 3 steals, but only caught 2 runners for outs. Burgess is an outmaking machine because runners take a chance on him.
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/fielding/1727728
Which is better in terms of defensive runs saved etc? (Or whatever yardstick to measure it by.) Burgess accounted for 18 outs, that's a lot. Whereas Lake only got two runners out. But 17 more runners advanced at least one base on Burgess.... I don't have a data-driven answer (but my gut leans toward Burgess being worth it). Just wondering if others have insights.