Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Interesting reading on the topic from Joe Posnanski. Lots of stats.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2013/0 ... u-get.html

great article - thanks for posting

Very interesting. Wonder if those stats hold up in Strat. Hard to figure since a lot of my "blown saves" come before the ninth inning. But my thanks, too, for posting.

Definitely an interesting article.
But one downside to it. Before the days when closers were common the 9th may have largely been your starter's effectiveness in the 9th verses my starter's effectiveness in the 9th. With a closer it is my closer against your closer.
Would you not need to compare how one team does when relying on starters to go 9 innings verses relying on the starter to get you to the point you can hand it over to a closer. Or just to get the game to the point it can be handed over to a bullpen of setup men and closer. I think the real value of bullpen and closer is that they allow the starter to go all out more frequently for just 6 innings not needing to save anything verses one who has to hold it back a notch or two early to have something left finish a game. Having that bullpen allows a guy to pitch around more hitters because if you get your pitch count up and are gassed after just 6 that is ok because the bullpen will now take over.

Problem is how do you compare one method against another? How do you compare how things might go with a staff full of complete game horses against a team built around a bullpen? How do you play one era against another?

Hey, that is what ATG Strat is for.

Yup.

WN

This article highlights a weakness of the statistical analysis trend. Raw numbers can often help, but sometimes they are not enough. And sometimes the wrong numbers are gathered and analyzed.

The need for a good closer is in some ways similar to the PED issue. You may not need it ... unless your opponent is using it. Then there will be pressure on you to match what they are doing to cancel the advantage.

Let me explain. Suppose you employ a great closer along with setup men. So now your starters can go all out for 6 or 7 innings. No need to ever go in to cruise control saving energy for the 9th inning. And if some experts are to be believed running less risk of injury so they are not lost to you. I counter that by making my starters go all 9 innings on a regular basis. Now we are comparing the effectiveness of a tired starter and a fresh closer in that close 9th inning. Or possibly the reason you are ahead in the first place for the 9th is because my starter got a little tired in the 7th or 8th and gave up a couple runs.

If games play out showing you gaining an advantage by having that fresh quality reliever over my tired starter what choice do I have? I have to quit being stubborn and get a closer of my own so I am not using tired starters any more or losing my starters to more frequent injuries.

So if a 95% success rate is so certain... How many of us have ever had a Strat team win at a 95% clip when leading after 8 innings? I am usually excited with 75%.