Pickoffs

How does a runner get picked off? This seems to be happening quite frequently and I would love to know why.

YOu should try and get ahold of Steve Carlton, he picked off 145 runners in his career

Or ask the Texas Rangers, they had 27 runners picked off last year

I don't recall what triggers a pickoff attempt, apart from when it is when the runner tries to establish a lad to steal. But I can tell you, the runner's safe chance is based of his second supplementary steal number . . . so catchers that stole a base, with numbers like 2/- (20-3) are very likely to be picked off when the pitcher makes a move. Do a lot of your runners have a second number that is low (the 3 in the above example)?

Last night's victim was Biggio. 19-13
My understanding was, if he gets a good lead, his steal # was 19. If not a good lead, his steal # was 13.
What does that have to do with being picked off?

This is from a compilation of the Super Advanced Game Instructions at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... mrules.htm

I think it applies to the on-line game. Hope it helps.

Balk/Pickoff Rule

If a dice roll of 1 or 2 is rolled on the 20-sided die, during a steal attempt the pitcher has attempted a pickoff throw and the base runner dives back to the base.

A roll of 1 on the 20-sided die indicates that the baserunner attempting the lead may be picked-off. Refer to the baserunner's second steal rating number in parenthesis and roll the 20-sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the second steal rating the baserunner dives back safely (the steal attempt is canceled and the runner may not attempt to get the good lead again while still on this base). If the number is greater than the second steal rating then this baserunner is picked off.

A roll of 2 on the 20-sided die indicates a possible balk. Roll the 20-sided die again and refer to the pitcher's balk rating, If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating then a balk has occurred and all baserunners advance 1 base. If the number is higher than the pitcher's balk rating then the baserunner dives back safely (the steal attempt is canceled and the runner may not attempt to get the lead again while still on this base).

NOTE: At first at base, if the runner dives back safely, he may still steal using his second steal rating number. At second base, if the runner dives back safely, be may NOT steal.

In my view this is a flaw in the stolen base system that should get an update. A runner's risk of getting picked off should reflect how frequently he was picked off and not how frequently he was thrown out stealing or how often. There should be a third rating added to each player's steal ratings. Using that second number was just laziness on the part of the game company when it made the super advanced steal system.

I dunno. A high second number is kind of more indicative of a really good base runner. Guys who stole a ton of bases and didn't get caught a lot have a high second number; my personal example would be Eric Davis in '86. He stole 80 bases and only got caught 11 times. His steal numbers are 20-16, so you can see he has pretty good success swiping second even without a lead, and stealing third if he can get a lead there. Biggio was a good base stealer, 47 SB and 10 CS or 50 and 8 . . . but he still got caught a higher percentage of the time. That second number is a little lower, and I don't know if it's because he got caught more (again, as a percentage) or didn't steal third often, or what. The bottom line is, you look at guys like Rickey and Brock, they have that really high second number; they're some of the best base stealers to have played the game. Biggio was good, but probably not among the best. He seems to have had some bad luck getting picked off multiple times though.

This is why you set Bill Plummer to "Don't steal" . . . That 20/6 actually looks pretty decent . . . until you factor in how infrequently he'll get the lead, and that he's dead in the water if they throw over there.

In my view this is a flaw in the stolen base system that should get an update. A runner's risk of getting picked off should reflect how frequently he was picked off and not how frequently he was thrown out stealing or how often. There should be a third rating added to each player's steal ratings. Using that second number was just laziness on the part of the game company when it made the super advanced steal system.

Can you point me to a place where you can get the official "picked off " stat in baseball for hitters? I can only find caught stealing stats.