Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:54 pm
Ruth is impossible to evaluate.
1. He was a phenomenal pitcher.
2. His hitting stats are unreal.
BUT
A. In and around 1920 when he became a full-time hitter, "scientific baseball" ruled, where pitchers tried to hit spots and hitters above all tried for contact and tried to "hit it where they ain't." Many batters did not take full swings at pitches, and I suspect that the Tony Gwynn style of hitting off his front foot was prevalent. Pitchers also "paced themselves" - i.e. did not use their best stuff very often.
B. Ruth's 1920 and 1921 seasons were as much a function of opposing teams being unable to adjust to his unusual strategy of trying to hit everything hard as they were of his undeniable talent. I suspect that it took months for teams to even consider pitching him differently that they did other hitters. And even then, they had to decide which "different" was most likely to succeed.
C. He never had to hit under the lights, or face a slider, or fly 40,000 miles a year. Opposing teams probably used two or fewer pitchers in at least 90% of his games. They thought that a LOOGY was spitting on the sidewalk. Most likely, the normal pitcher of the day had Greg Maddux velocity, reasonably good command, and an inconsistent curve ball. Ruth struck out in about 1/8 of his PA's. The average AL hitter struck out in 1/12 in 1919, 1/15 in 1925, and 1/12 again in 1931. So Ruth was striking out at least 1.5 times the league average, against pitchers who mostly did not have the "stuff" to strike people out or the mindset to try to do so. His strikeout rate in modern baseball would be mind-boggling.
D. Saying that Ruth was 6 standard deviations over average in runs created, or slugging percentage, or whatever isn't really meaningful when he was the only guy following an outlying philosophy of hitting that emphasized power over contact. There's really no way to attempt to translate what he did to other contexts.
My guess is that, if Ruth were active in 21st century baseball, he would put up batting lines like.240-.360-.520 with 180 or more K's per year. That's still a very valuable player, but certainly not the best player alive. And there's also the issue of his lack of conditioning. But I think we can give him a pass on that one - peer pressure today would have him in good shape for a much greater portion of his career.