Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Has anyone studied whether or not strikeouts are more valuable than other types of outs. No sac flys/ or bunts, but no DP's either. Just wondering if two pitchers with the same number of hits/walks on their cards but different K rates have different results.

For a simulation like Strat I would think that, all else being equal, a strikeout beats another kind of out because there is a much smaller chance of base runners advancing.

With pitch counts and the like in modern "real" baseball, I would think that a pitcher who pitches to contact can usually go longer in a game than a strikeout pitcher. To me, the most valuable pitcher pitches to contact, but has the ability to get the strikeout in certain situations.

In Strat many prefer Ks if the defense isn't stellar. That ground ball turns into an error, runners advance, inning extended and some guy batting .425 steps to the plate with RISP.

In Strat many prefer Ks if the defense isn't stellar. That ground ball turns into an error, runners advance, inning extended and some guy batting .425 steps to the plate with RISP.

In strat defense stellar or defense poor has absolutely nothing to do with strikeouts.

Seriously. Look at all those strikeouts on the Nolan Ryan 73 card.
Look at all those stikeouts on the 65 Koufax card.

Now look at that 1920 Jim Bagby Sr. card. Quite a difference. Not many strikeouts on that card.
Against LH batter just at 6-3 and only at 4-2 and 6-3 for RH hitters.

Know what ALL these cards have in common? Let me fix some hot chocolate while you stare at these cards side by side.

They ALL have the exact same number of gb(3b)X = 3
They ALL have the exact same number of gb(ss)X = 7
They ALL have the exact same number of gb(2b)X = 6
They ALL have the exact same number of gb(1b)X = 3
They ALL have the exact same number of CATCH-X = 2
They ALL have the exact same number of gb(P)X = 2

That means Vizquel is not going to help Bagby any more than he is going to help Ryan.
That means Julio Cruz and his e48 at shortstop is going to hurt Ryan just as much as Bagby.

There is absolutely no correlation between defense and strikeouts in strat.

Real life MLB yes strikeout pitchers can compensate for poor defense and great defense can help a non strikeout pitcher but not in strat.

Thanks for the info. I'm admittedly disappointed to learn the considerable difference in number of balls in play per game for a 2K vs 12K pitcher is not accounted for properly in strat. That doesn't make any sense to me.

Well, Valen is only talking about the X-chart chances. If my opponent has a runner at 3b and less than 2 out, of course I'd rather have a pitcher with a lot of K's on his card.

If a pitcher throws a complete game (27 outs) and 10-15 of those outs are K's (as an elite strikeout starter can often accomplish), the chances of x-chances are obviously reduced. If your whole staff can produce a significantly higher K total than "normal", you'll also have significantly fewer x-chances. Does this mean you can get by with shoddier fielders? Yes, to some degree.

nels52 wrote:If a pitcher throws a complete game (27 outs) and 10-15 of those outs are K's (as an elite strikeout starter can often accomplish), the chances of x-chances are obviously reduced. If your whole staff can produce a significantly higher K total than "normal", you'll also have significantly fewer x-chances. Does this mean you can get by with shoddier fielders? Yes, to some degree.

It's my understanding that all pitchers have the same amount of x-chances, regardless of how many K's they have on their card. What you get less of is the routine outs. IMO the K's help situationally, like SteveF states, guy on third less than 2 outs.

fenders wrote:Thanks for the info. I'm admittedly disappointed to learn the considerable difference in number of balls in play per game for a 2K vs 12K pitcher is not accounted for properly in strat. That doesn't make any sense to me.

frenders - it does. But since Strat is limited to the number of chances per card the balls in play eliminated are the routine chances. So taking that a step further where Strat diverges further from reality is this result: a larger % of fielding chances in Strat are 'tougher' for high K pitchers.

Rosie2167 wrote:

fenders wrote:Thanks for the info. I'm admittedly disappointed to learn the considerable difference in number of balls in play per game for a 2K vs 12K pitcher is not accounted for properly in strat. That doesn't make any sense to me.

frenders - it does. But since Strat is limited to the number of chances per card the balls in play eliminated are the routine chances. So taking that a step further where Strat diverges further from reality is this result: a larger % of fielding chances in Strat are 'tougher' for high K pitchers.

If it doesn't differentiate in total chance of errors from poor defense from a high K pitcher to a non-K pitcher,then it seems to be lacking some "reality".

Not really related to OP, and probably the "Duh" statement of the day.... The only strong correlation I noted in my last season was my experience with Carlton and Vance personal need to get their Ks to be successful. I had the top two pitchers in an offense leaning small park league. They were 55-16 with 568Ks. If they got over 6 Ks about a 90%+ chance of win and often a complete game. On the rare day they had under 6Ks they consistently got beat up. Gave up double the runs and win rate under 20% IIRC. The statistical reason isn't complicated, but I was surprised by the extreme difference just a few less Ks made. Small sample but I'm pretty convinced it mattered a lot.