Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

There's always debate on when to cut bait on players during the season. My argument has always been - mid-level players who may not be the right fit should be looked at to swap out, but studs who start slow should not get the quick axe. Here's an example:

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/1420859

140M league (Dream Team theme) - I had pick #3 and selected 3-Finger as my #2 starter. Here's his stats through 15 starts:

W L S IP H R ER BB SO ERA WHIP
5 8 0 89.5 126 95 89 45 38 8.95 1.91

I stayed with him rather than cutting him for a starter in the 9-9.5M range. Here's his stats since then:

W L S IP H R ER BB SO ERA WHIP
18 7 0 196.5 181 102 87 60 81 3.98 1.23

There's always a lot of board kvetching about bad luck, whoa is me, this one game or series, this guy stunk for me. Most of the time, over a season, the rolls even out, and a stud will perform close to his expected level. Does that always happen? No, but the odds of a worse player outperforming the stud from that decision point forward is not likely unless there was a park / team / league fit issue in the first place. Just wanted to share....

If he had started with the latter and finished with the bad luck run many would point to that and say see normalization kicked in and made him stink.

Sticking with Three Finger too cas nobody wanted him in a trade and costs too much to lose him to free agency. Wonder why 8.93 Addie Joss is doing better than 10.39 Three Finger except for his last start...? Normalization kicking in...

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1422306

Thanks for your attention...
Sincerely,
Delivery Boy...

I strongly dislike normalization....just sayin'

Normalization vs. regression to the mean is a fine line.

Past results shouldn't affect future results. So, from game 60 forward, I should expect 3-Finger to have an ERA in the high 4s / low 5s in a 140M league, which is what I'd expect his year totals to come in.

In theory, if there is normalization, I should be able to set up a league with 12 teams with nothing but stud pitchers and nickel hitters. For the first X # of games, the stud pitchers should have incredible ERAs. At some point, a switch in flipped, and for the balance of the year the stud pitchers would have higher than average ERAs to bring their total year ERAs to near expectations.

If I had $500 laying around, I would set up two leagues (one for hitters, one for pitchers) to prove or disprove normalization. I did that about 10 years, and identified that normalization was on for hitters. They acknowledged and turned it off, and since then 90+ HRs is not uncommon. Or, if SOM agreed, they could grant me 24 teams to setup the two leagues (with no prizes attached), and I would gladly do that for the community.

Treyomo wrote:Normalization vs. regression to the mean is a fine line.

Past results shouldn't affect future results. So, from game 60 forward, I should expect 3-Finger to have an ERA in the high 4s / low 5s in a 140M league, which is what I'd expect his year totals to come in.

In theory, if there is normalization, I should be able to set up a league with 12 teams with nothing but stud pitchers and nickel hitters. For the first X # of games, the stud pitchers should have incredible ERAs. At some point, a switch in flipped, and for the balance of the year the stud pitchers would have higher than average ERAs to bring their total year ERAs to near expectations.

If I had $500 laying around, I would set up two leagues (one for hitters, one for pitchers) to prove or disprove normalization. I did that about 10 years, and identified that normalization was on for hitters. They acknowledged and turned it off, and since then 90+ HRs is not uncommon. Or, if SOM agreed, they could grant me 24 teams to setup the two leagues (with no prizes attached), and I would gladly do that for the community.

If you ever want to do the pitcher's league, "chicks dig the complete game shut out", I'm in!

I agree whole heartedly. Before I cut I look at their rolls if a pitcher has most oh his rolls on the hitters card or a hitter has more rolls on the pitcher card, I keep them. I just had Frank Robinson hitting .247 at the halfway mark end up at .300+. He lit it up the 2nd half. Too many guys make moves too early and the moves make no sense. For me I try to sacrifice a little pen to bolster either my hitting or pitching or my not so good 2 mil fielder , like Melilo, for his .72 card and improve elsewhere. I don't lose a lot of offense or because I and maybe can inject some power or some pitching help in the one case or put some extra burden on the pen and longer starts for the starters. In the case of the pen adding a few innings doesn't kill me and I generally use that pickup for mopup. Treymo is dead on though. Don't be to quick to pull the trigger.

Treymo, I've been setting up 1 park only leagues to see how things are affected. So far there's been 2 Petcos, Sportsmans 20, Bennet 11, Veterans 75, Wrigley 78, and now forming a 2nd Wrigley 78. The different strategies have been interesting. It really gives you a good handle on how a player does in a certain park. I am not a big numbers guy but if you are and want to look, they are all labeled with the park name for the league name. I think you can get to them through my teams list.

Thanks, Matthew. I'll take a look. We currently have a Chicks Dig the Longball League just starting that may serve the purpose, though it's not quite all the way extreme. When I set it up, I will do an unlimited salary league with only the worst pitchers, put as many of the top stud hitters out of position defensively as possible, have only 9 pitchers per team, and create settings to maximize pitcher fatigue - in other words, eliminate all impediments to maximize offense. Similarly, for a pitching league, it would be set up with as many 1s in the field as possible, lining up divisions so bad lefty hitters face nothing but lefties, and other settings to completely minimize offense.

I'll be tracking the Longball league stats on a weekly basis to see if there is any noticeable change in performance as the season rolls on.

If anyone ever sets up a pure pitching league with severe hitting restrictions and minimum fielding requirements, let me know and I'll track the stats for those as well.