200M Pitchers ranked by ERA

I downloaded 34 seasons of 200M leagues from Barns tours that were played the last three seasons (this season included). I excluded a few seasons where data seem fishy (eg. 2 teams ended with 50 wins or so in one league).

The average ERA of the Strat games played is in the middle of below's ranking. You also have the number of seasons combined, average innings pitched, game started. Below arm, you have L for lhp, but instead of writing R for rhp, I entered 5-d for pitchers on 5-day rotation, and I entered a category numbers to classify pitchers based on my model, 1=being reserved to Maddux, and 5=being worst. You get the average HR allowed and the HR/9inn ratio, and at the full right, I have put the ERA as generated by my model in a 12/12 hr environment.

I excluded seasons where pitchers were employed as both starters and relievers (in fact, I set a threshold of no more than 10 relief appearances). I only kept pitchers with 5 full seasons of stats, with the exception of the new released 2016 Kershaw, because he sits on the throne of the best ERA so far (admittedly, based on only one season)!! I also only kept seasons where pitchers were regular starting pitchers. I didn't set any rigid criteria, but generally, seasons where a pitcher had less than 20 starts were not kept.

Of course, there are bias. Some pitchers are probably mostly kept in a low homerun environment, but it's fun nonetheless.

Code: Select all

NAME____(year)   season   innings   GS   era   arm   HR   HR/9IP ERA(model) W-L
Kershaw, C(2016)______   1   192   26   4.59   L   37   1.73   5.36   12   8
Martinez, (2000)______   18   227   31   4.83   5d   54   2.14   4.92   16   10
Maddux, Gr(1995)______   35   291   41   5.22   1   58   1.79   5.33   18   14
Martinez, (1997)______   13   278   40   5.55   2   66   2.13   5.65   17   13
Johnson, W(1913)______   34   296   40   5.65   2   69   2.10   5.71   18   16
Arrieta, J(2015)______   13   221   34   5.74   2   48   1.94   5.94   14   11
Alexander,(1915)______   35   289   41   5.77   2   63   1.97   5.63   17   16
Adams, Bab(1909)______   17   224   32   5.78   5d   51   2.04   5.82   14   11
Vance, Daz(1924)______   33   253   37   5.94   3   57   2.04   6.21   16   13
Mathewson,(1909)______   31   273   39   5.97   2   60   1.97   5.92   17   15
Walsh, Ed (1910)______   35   294   40   6.02   2   67   2.07   5.82   17   16
Johnson, R(1995)______   10   216   35   6.10   L   47   1.96   6.39   14   11
Tiant, Lui(1968)______   34   264   39   6.12   3   67   2.29   6.10   17   15
Marichal, (1966)______   22   249   37   6.16   3   67   2.42   6.26   15   14
Clemens, R(1997)______   32   253   38   6.16   3   57   2.04   6.19   15   13
Radbourn, (1884)______   19   253   37   6.17   4   55   1.94   6.52   17   14
Gibson, Bo(1968)______   34   246   36   6.25   4   60   2.18   6.40   14   15
Greinke, Z(2015)______   13   246   39   6.25   2   58   2.14   5.95   14   14
Hecker, Gu(1882)______   21   213   31   6.28   5d   48   2.01   5.93   13   11
Leonard, D(1914)______   35   257   39   6.28   L   63   2.21   5.99   16   14
Joss, Addi(1908)______   33   277   40   6.29   3   64   2.08   6.11   17   15
Brown, Thr(1908)______   33   274   39   6.31   3   61   2.00   6.01   16   16
Johnson, R(1999)______   7   219   37   6.33   L   59   2.43   6.95   14   12
Brown, Kev(1996)______   33   238   38   6.33   2   54   2.04   5.97   15   13
Sutton, Do(1972)______   35   264   38   6.35   3   62   2.11   6.20   15   15
Wood, Joe (1912)______   29   259   37   6.36   4   60   2.07   6.35   16   14
Drysdale, (1964)______   31   238   36   6.40   4   55   2.07   6.38   14   14
Jones, Sli (NeL)______   11   183   29   6.40   L   44   2.14   6.33   11   10
Coombs, Ja(1910)______   13   244   36   6.42   5   53   1.96   6.73   14   14
Paige, Sat (NeL)______   21   226   35   6.44   3   51   2.02   6.26   13   12
Koufax, Sa(1964)______   17   251   39   6.46   L   64   2.29   6.19   14   16
Gregg, Vea(1911)______   13   221   33   6.47   L   53   2.18   6.57   14   12
Young, Cy (1908)______   31   243   37   6.47   4   55   2.02   6.38   14   14
Camnitz, H(1909)______   25   248   38   6.47   4   56   2.02   6.43   14   15
Reulbach, (1905)______   29   262   38   6.47   4   59   2.02   6.32   15   16
Carlton, S(1972)______   31   245   36   6.47   L   58   2.12   6.63   14   14
Johnson, R(2001)______   13   225   37   6.48   L   50   2.02   6.69   14   13
Bender, Ch(1910)______   32   251   38   6.52   4   58   2.08   6.38   15   14
Chance, De(1964)______   14   222   35   6.54   4   50   2.03   6.52   13   13
Kershaw, C(2013)______   33   235   38   6.54   L   54   2.08   6.26   14   14
Ford, Russ(1910)______   12   271   40   6.55   3   71   2.34   6.09   16   16
Seaver, To(1973)______   24   246   37   6.58   4   67   2.44   6.49   15   15
Smith, Fra(1909)______   9   228   37   6.59   5   50   1.97   6.71   14   13
Gooden, Dw(1985)______   20   242   38   6.60   4   62   2.32   6.47   14   15
Keefe, Tim(1888)______   33   256   37   6.62   4   59   2.08   6.53   15   15
Seward, Ed(1888)______   30   253   37   6.64   5   54   1.94   6.87   15   15
Wood, Wilb(1971)______   5   189   30   6.65   L   45   2.13   6.81   8   13
Taylor, Ja(1902)______   23   240   37   6.66   5   59   2.23   6.60   14   15
Lincecum, (2009)______   11   190   32   6.66   5   42   1.98   6.76   11   12
Koufax, Sa(1965)______   11   263   39   6.73   L   72   2.46   6.26   15   16
Coveleski,(1917)______   30   240   38   6.74   4   58   2.16   6.39   14   14
Cicotte, E(1919)______   29   220   36   6.75   4   54   2.19   6.41   13   13
Chesbro, J(1904)______   12   217   34   6.76   4   47   1.95   6.80   12   13
Scott, Mik(1986)______   9   221   34   6.76   4   58   2.35   6.74   12   14
Bradley, G(1876)______   26   250   38   6.77   4   59   2.14   6.57   15   16
Schupp, Fe(1916)______   9   189   31   6.81   5d   49   2.34   5.97   11   11
Hall, Tom (1970)______   5   188   29   6.82   L   50   2.42   6.91   9   13
Tudor, Joh(1985)______   7   226   36   6.85   L   52   2.08   8.78   11   15
Santana, J(2004)______   11   203   35   6.88   L   56   2.46   6.58   12   13
Seaver, To(1975)______   5   211   31   6.92   5   52   2.24   6.88   11   14
McDowell, (1968)______   30   227   36   6.94   L   58   2.31   6.59   12   16
Pfiester, (1906)______   24   224   36   6.94   L   54   2.17   6.56   12   15
Guidry, Ro(1978)______   20   222   37   6.95   L   55   2.21   6.87   11   16
McLain, De(1968)______   11   237   35   7.00   5   68   2.59   6.62   13   15
Hershiser,(1985)______   9   210   35   7.03   5   50   2.14   6.60   11   14
White, Doc(1906)______   28   235   37   7.07   L   57   2.18   6.72   13   15
Grove, Lef(1931)______   13   208   34   7.12   L   55   2.39   6.72   11   15
McGinnity,(1904)______   7   210   31   7.12   5   55   2.36   6.85   11   14
Russell, R(1916)______   7   212   37   7.13   L   47   1.99   6.75   12   14
Hubbell, C(1933)______   14   228   36   7.17   L   58   2.27   6.70   12   15
Baldwin, L(1886)______   23   224   35   7.20   L   59   2.36   6.75   12   15
Vaughn, Hi(1918)______   25   214   35   7.21   L   52   2.18   6.75   12   14
Newhouser,(1946)______   4   193   34   7.21   L   50   2.32   6.96   11   12
Nomo, Hide(1995)______   5   174   31   7.21   5   44   2.29   6.99   10   13
Mays, Carl(1917)______   10   214   36   7.39   5   47   1.95   6.94   12   16
McNally, D(1968)______   5   218   35   7.43   L   67   2.76   6.85   10   17
Bond, Tomm(1875)______   5   192   32   7.50   5   46   2.17   7.07   9   14
Waddell, R(1905)______   10   223   34   7.59   L   58   2.35   7.03   12   15
Spahn, War(1953)______   5   198   34   8.15   L   56   2.53   6.83   9   15



This is no big surprise in this ranking. Pedro and Maddux pitched as well as expected. The HR/ratio of Pedro best 5-d card is below expected, which indicates that he mostly played in a low homerun environment, as expected. So my model is perhaps overstating his value (his card is so extreme that it is probably the hardest to model).

We have only one year of data from the new released cards, but people who have followed me at the 20XX forum won't be surprised to see that Arrieta beats Greinke statistically. He did too in 2016 strato year, my model expects it too, and there is no reason to believe the contrary for ATG unless perhaps in a special running game environment, especially if he is helped by a catcher with a -3 arm (in fact, for technicalities, I have set the singles stadium environment rather low in my model, which is why my model has almost Arrieta equal to Greinke. If the stadium allows lots of single, Arrieta gets better because he allows no singles vs lh. Tiant is a bit better too than what my model indicates for he does not allow any stadium singles).

The only two surprises in the top 20 are Dazzy Vance and Radbourn. In my model, Radbourn barely cracks the top 50. I didn't check if there was a mistake on DD, will look at it later. My model has Vance in the top 25, so he outperformed here a little bit. In fact, all 3R-4R pitchers have been better than my model indicates: Vance, Gibson, Gregg, Scott. It could be because the Minute Maid teams are populated the leagues, so much that the proportion of right-handed hitters these pitchers see are greater than expected. It could also be because SOM managers give them a rest when they face left-oriented teams (the 4 pitchers have on average between 33 and 36 starts).

Despite having some of the worse HR/innings ratio, Tiant and Marichal make the top 15 best pitchers. Marichal had better HR ratio than expected, indicating that he was taken care by letting him pitched mostly in low-homerun environments, so his stats are a bit inflated. Tiant's HR ratio is just in line with my model, which tells me that he pitched in diversified environments. Marichal was apparantly a regular starter in about only 60% of leagues, which I thought was surprising a little bit. I know he has these 4 BP vs rh, and so people tend to avoid using him in power stadiums. But the card is dominant vs lh, so in my opinion he should only sit in power stadiums against teams that have 5 right-handed hitters or more. To illustrate, Marichal is better than Gibson in Minute Maid if he faces only 3 right-handed hitters.

Stats from Ford and Schupp confirm that they are way overpriced for what they are worth if used only as starting pitchers. In fact, I suspect that SOM has set their price to include the benefits of innings pitched in relief, but these were excluded in this given set (of note: one team had 41 starts from Ford and 31 relief appearances in the same season!! 347 combined innings with a respected era of 6.17 for 200M league. I heard about worst overusage in other leagues. In that context, the salary is perhaps justified, but this kind of season was excluded from the stats above). This said, stats from Schupp are way off limit of what my model expected, and Ford HR ratio is way over expected, so they seem to have been victim of bad luck or very bad defense behind them.

In general, lefties are badly outperformed compared to righties, another thing expected in 200M. No lefty (if we exclude the one season of 2016 Kershaw) cracked the top 10. Randy Johnson's new card is the only one to crack the top 15, thanks to an amazing low HR ratio. Ten of the 14 worst pitchers based on this dataset were lhp. On average, these 10 worst pitchers were kept 6 innings per start, so perhaps some of them were used for the shortest amount possible so that a right-handed reliever takes the relief and face platooned players.

Nice information, is there a reason you did not include the win/loss record?

Nice information, is there a reason you did not include the win/loss record?

Thanks. W-L records are not really informative. Numbers are so washed up by averaging, that everyone pitches for .500 more or less 2 wins or losses. The few exceptions are the guys on top of the list (Pedro 16-10, Maddux 18-14) and at the bottom of the list (Spahn 9-15, McNally 10-17), give or take a few exceptions (Arrieta 14-11, McDowell 12-16 and other left-handed pitchers). Anyway, I put there for your interest.