Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

A 2 (-4) e6 or a 1 (0) e11?

Well, the 1 is creating more outs, while the -4 is creating a few outs, but mostly dealing with balls in play. All things equal, I’d take the 1.

There are fielding charts you can reference (that I'm too lazy to find) that will show you range and error comparisons, although I don't think they account for arm strength. Like Andy, I'd take the 1 in this case. They're close enough that if the 2 is a better hitter or is better suited for your ballpark then go for the 2.

Defensively I like the 2 (-4)

It's a close call, it really depends on how many fast runners this league will include. If it's a pre-1920 league, I would probably go with the best arm, but in a typical 100M league, my estimation is that the 1-rated defender is worth 13 defensive runs and the 2-rated (-4) arm would be worth 11 defensive runs (compared to a baseline of roughly 3e0 (0))

errors can open Pandora's box - the 2 will give up a small amount of doubles, but the 11 errors can cascade to multiple advances

the arm - it depends a little on the rest of the arms in the OF - I figure if I have at least one -4, the other guy will need to respect it and select nothing more aggressive than Normal for his baserunning aggressiveness setting - even if I have lesser arms elsewhere.

if he doesn't respect my good arm w/ his running aggressiveness, I am gonna get some outfield assists.

Thanks for the feedback and suggestions.

It is a limited card pool 80M league with assigned parks. I got Jack Murphy, which I would never choose, but whatever. I decided to go with the 1 (0) e 11, who is Chet Lemon, a player who, as a Tiger fan, I always liked, although he was prone to going off on strange baserunning forays from time to time. I have a (-4) in RF, but he is also a high error guy (King Kelly).

The league is interesting because playing in a strange park with a limited group of players, I really have no idea if the team is any good. I"m guessing my fellow managers are in the same boat.

Are the hitters about even as hitters? If the fielding is about a tossup, which I think it is, I'd go with the better hitter.

MARCPELLETIER wrote:

my estimation is that the 1-rated defender is worth 13 defensive runs and the 2-rated (-4) arm would be worth 11 defensive runs (compared to a baseline of roughly 3e0 (0))

This is a very interesting statement. It seems like in general that outfielders arms are an area where we have very limited data--and I've been trying to figure this out myself, though mostly looking at the base-running side, which is sort of the flip side of the OF arm.

Can I ask what you're basing your estimate on?

Hard to estimate the effects of a really good arm without analyzing every baserunning decision over the course of a season. The main effect is that less baserunners will attempt the extra base. You will probably even have fewer assists with the better arm. If you are in a small ball park at a 100M or below, I'd take the 2 (-4) with the low e number. So many chances default to the CF's arm and keeping the trail runner from advancing because the lead runner is deterred from advancing by the arm, can defuse a big inning with a timely gbA. At high caps, I'd probably go for the 1 because power laden teams abound, and the value of an extra base diminishes in the face of the three run homer. Just my two cents.

To break this down a little further and hopefully create more clarity; if you assume a whip of about 1.4 for the league average and assume that your CF plays in 162 games then, all things being equal he should have about 90 cf (x) chances per season. So a CF 2 would be expected to yield 13.5 more basehits than than the 1, 4.5 of these should be doubles and 9 singles. That would be offset by giving up five fewer two base errors for the e6 vs the e11. So you are left with the expectation that the 2 will basically give up 9 more singles than the 1. Balance that against the unknown amount of runs theoretically saved by by opposing managers foregoing extra bases minus assists lost because of the more conservative baserunning strategy and you have a quantitative answer IFF you can fill in the precise numbers due to the baserunning decisions.