Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

I am angry, but I am also very reluctant to post this. However, when a 50-50 roll skews dramatically in favor of the same team in Game after Game in a Playoff series, credulity gets stretched further and further from any faith in the norm of fairness. Now, when you flip coins, of course there will be streaks, and one side may get ahead of the other for a while, but the further along you go, the rolls will tend more and more to even out over time. Here, just the opposite happened. I am defining a favorable roll to be on the hitter card when your team is at bat, and on the pitcher card when your opponent is batting.

Game 1: Team A gets 1 more favorable roll out of 65 total rolls. Team A won 6-2.
Game 2: Team A gets 16 more favorable rolls out of 92 total rolls. Team B won 7-6 in 11 innings.
Game 3: Team A gets 13 more favorable rolls out of 71 total rolls. Team A won 4-3.
Game 4: Team A gets 14 more favorable rolls out of 94 total rolls. Team B won 6-5 in 11 innings.
Game 5: Team A gets 15 more favorable rolls out of 79 total rolls. Team A won 4-2.
Game 6: Team A gets 6 more favorable rolls out of 72 total rolls. Team A won 8-5.

I'd like one of our statisticians out there to provide us with an equation that would calculate the odds of this very improbable situation of occurring in any playoff series -- and tells us what those odds are. Again, those big number of favorable rolls margins are not the problem. It is that Team A gets 'em every time, 6 straight times. The very essence of fair play might be at stake here.

I can tell you this quite simply without doing any math. 6 games is not near enough sample size to prove ANYTHING. 600 games maybe.

I agree with Steve in that six games shows little. I think the odds of a team getting 6 straight unfavorable die roll results is 64 to one. While very unlucky, hardly suspicious.

Well there is a mathematical formula that will actually calculate the actual likelihood of this happening. Indeed I have seen enough rolls like this that I do not believe in the random factor. A simple binomial distribution can calculate this.

There were 473 rolls from the above 204 were for the victim 269 against the victim a 43/57 split. About the rate I frequently see when certain people go on “lucky” streaks.

The odds of this occurring is 1.6 times in a thousand 6 games series. So this should be seen about once in a playoff series for players who have made the playoffs a thousand times. However I have seen this occur multiple times in playoff series, so I doubt it is random more likely a program bias for whatever reason.

I'm not a statistical whiz nor a computer whiz like many of you here. But, I've long believed there was "stuff" going on inside the game that we are not privy to and probably never will be. Too much crazy crap happens to be totally random.

IMHO it's not cheating, I don't think Strat is playing favorites.

But I definitely think that are things going on within the game engine that could explain these types of things and other "oddities" and "statistical anomalies".

I absolutely believe the dice rolls are not random, and there are flaws inherent in the game engine. These were not NASA engineers, rocket scientists or Google computer programmers who built the SOM engine -- however it was built. Mmm, that would be an intriguing story to discover -- exactly who built the coding for the SOM game engine. With Hal Richman being the cheap dirtbag miser he is, I'm sure he probably contracted it out to a fluky firm or freelancer. I'm thinking Ukrainian, Russian, or west Texas.

gkhd11a wrote:Well there is a mathematical formula that will actually calculate the actual likelihood of this happening. Indeed I have seen enough rolls like this that I do not believe in the random factor. A simple binomial distribution can calculate this.

There were 473 rolls from the above 204 were for the victim 269 against the victim a 43/57 split. About the rate I frequently see when certain people go on “lucky” streaks.

The odds of this occurring is 1.6 times in a thousand 6 games series. So this should be seen about once in a playoff series for players who have made the playoffs a thousand times. However I have seen this occur multiple times in playoff series, so I doubt it is random more likely a program bias for whatever reason.

Thank you Charlie. See folks, 1.6 in a thousand is far rarer than 1 in 64. Now, of course, I hope whatever we find is ... well, changeable for the better.

Hack Wilson wrote:I absolutely believe the dice rolls are not random, and there are flaws inherent in the game engine. These were not NASA engineers, rocket scientists or Google computer programmers who built the SOM engine -- however it was built. Mmm, that would be an intriguing story to discover -- exactly who built the coding for the SOM game engine. With Hal Richman being the cheap dirtbag miser he is, I'm sure he probably contracted it out to a fluky firm or freelancer. I'm thinking Ukrainian, Russian, or west Texas.

Don't we owe this online game to the very same Mr. Richman? A Richman is a miser? Is he? How ironic does that sound? Anyway, Hack, you play a lot. Why do you play if you feel this way? And what should Richman be spending SOM funds on that he is not doing at the moment?
Jon

Muadib1950 wrote:

Hack Wilson wrote:I absolutely believe the dice rolls are not random, and there are flaws inherent in the game engine. These were not NASA engineers, rocket scientists or Google computer programmers who built the SOM engine -- however it was built. Mmm, that would be an intriguing story to discover -- exactly who built the coding for the SOM game engine. With Hal Richman being the cheap dirtbag miser he is, I'm sure he probably contracted it out to a fluky firm or freelancer. I'm thinking Ukrainian, Russian, or west Texas.

Don't we owe this online game to the very same Mr. Richman? A Richman is a miser? Is he? How ironic does that sound? Anyway, Hack, you play a lot. Why do you play if you feel this way? And what should Richman be spending SOM funds on that he is not doing at the moment?
Jon

Thank you. This is what I wonder. Why play? If I felt any of this "conspiracy" crap was even remotely true, I would not be here.

Muadib1950 wrote:

gkhd11a wrote:Well there is a mathematical formula that will actually calculate the actual likelihood of this happening. Indeed I have seen enough rolls like this that I do not believe in the random factor. A simple binomial distribution can calculate this.

There were 473 rolls from the above 204 were for the victim 269 against the victim a 43/57 split. About the rate I frequently see when certain people go on “lucky” streaks.

The odds of this occurring is 1.6 times in a thousand 6 games series. So this should be seen about once in a playoff series for players who have made the playoffs a thousand times. However I have seen this occur multiple times in playoff series, so I doubt it is random more likely a program bias for whatever reason.

Thank you Charlie. See folks, 1.6 in a thousand is far rarer than 1 in 64. Now, of course, I hope whatever we find is ... well, changeable for the better.

This is not even CLOSE to being accurate.