Stealing 3rd

BOTTOM OF INNING 4
0 E.Martinez 2-6 Ground Out (2B) b-0 F9
1 K.Griffey Jr. 2-5 Home Run (CF) b-H F9
1 A.Rodriguez 3-4 Walk b-1 F9
Stolen Base 1-2 F9
Caught Stealing 2-o F9
2 I.Suzuki 5-3 Ground Out (P) b-0 gb(P)x F9

ARod stealing numbers are *6 18-6

Pitcher was Bouton: hold 0
Catcher was Howard: arm= -4

So ARod chance to steal third safely was 10% (1-2).

Suzuki set as never hit and run, never bunt, so the attempt to steal is not likely to be the result of some bad execution.

All manager instructions set as normal.

I should add that Howard T-arm is pretty bad: T-13.

Had ARod been successful, he would have 65% chance to score. But his probability to steal was still only 10%.

Is there a setting other than normal (aggressive?) that would ensure HAL followed your never hit and run and bunt instructions without exception? Is ARod set to never steal?

My personal experience is that Hal always follow instructions set on the hitters preference to never bunt or never hit and run. Same with never steal, except for the occasional double steal, with the instructed runner to never steal being the trail runner.

Marc,

I don't pay enough attention to the box scores much but when a runner gets picked off, does it show as picked off or caught stealing. There is a rare play on the Catcher X-chart to pick off the runner on first. Although the box score makes no mention of a catcher X chance, so that does seem really strange.

nevermind A Rod was on Second Base so that cant be it. I reviewed the X charts and rare plays and couldn't find anything. I would assume it came on a hit and run or suicide squeeze, but as you stated the batter was set for do not do those things so very strange.

nevermind A Rod was on Second Base so that cant be it. I reviewed the X charts and rare plays and couldn't find anything. I would assume it came on a hit and run or suicide squeeze, but as you stated the batter was set for do not do those things so very strange.

I have seen a pickoff at 2b in the windows game before, although they are quite rare.

It does state "pick off" when there is one, but in any case, why one would try to steal anyway with a 10% success rate?

My own hypothesis is that the computer is programmed, on a few randomized occasions, to try to steal no matter the success rate (on the condition that the individual settings are not set at "do not steal".

Probably something the SOM management did to generate the caught stealings on cards that have disastrous ratings. If this hypothetical instruction didn't exist, runners with disastrous ratings (say 7/-(3-1)) would always end up at 0 SB 0 CS, when in real life, they had 0 SB 1-2 CS

Where are you coming up with 10% success rate? SOM rules state runner can only attempt steal of third if they get a good lead on the dice roll.

I thought the lead adjustment was (-4) for stealing 3rd, so ARod's chance would be:
18 good lead
- 4 adjustment
- 4 Howard arm rating
+0 Bouton hold rating
= 10

... so 50% success rate.

Also, Howard's T-rating only comes into play if the roll is 1-3 on the attempt (I think). So ARod would only have about a 10% chance to score on a successful steal.

You're taking the first number. This number is for the success steal of second base. The second number -6- relates to the chance of stealing 3rd.

ARod's chance would be:
6 good lead
+0 adjustment (not holding ARod)
- 4 Howard arm rating
+0 Bouton hold rating

2= chance to be safe.