Injuries

Anyone else getting massive injury counts in atg 9? Barnstormer tourney team 1 123 days lost in 142 games. Team to 47 games lost thru 60 games. Thoughts?

A single team is a pretty small sample. I just looked at my ATG9 team with the most games and found that I had 71 games lost to injury out of 144 games played. Then I figured that I could get a significantly larger sample than my one team if I looked at the other teams in my league.

I found that a cluster of about half of the other teams in my league had injuries numbering 30 or fewer games lost. Another cluster--about half--had games lost in the 70s, about like mine. Nobody had more than 80 games lost. However, I've certainly seen games lost at that level among some of my earlier ATG8 teams.

You might want to enlarge your sample by checking out the games lost in the other teams in your league.

Factors that can influence "games lost" are the level of proneness to injury of a particular team and--perhaps more important—random chance.

Yeah...and also Bunze, what is your expected middle-of-the-distribution injury game days to this point?

Sure the rolls control where you are at on the curve, but your starters' injury chances are the benchmark...prorated to this point by the number of games played. The Misc stats has the card rolls, so for a rough comparison I think it's a matter of a few back of envelope calcs.

So, a 1 inj guy has 1/108 chance of rolling a d20 injury throw...which would then be up to 15 games if less than 600PA guy, modified to no more than 3 games if 600PA, etc as you know, i.e., 10% for stays in game [1-2]d20, 10% out for game[3-4]d20, 20% out one additional game [5-8]d20, etc). I think something like 35% on the d20 throw to be injured more than 3 games. Since you know the hitter/pitcher card splits, should be pretty simple in a spreadsheet unless I'm missing something.

So for a simple example worrying only about the "big rocks"... a 1 guy with 324 rolls to his card so far, would on average have hit 3 inj rolls I think, right? Then you could just thumbnail it from there for simplicity...with 3 d20 rolls, you would expect about 2 of them (65%) to be for 3 games or less, 1 of them (35%) to be for more than 3 games. The 2 rolls would yield something on average between 1-2 games, while the other roll something between 4-15 (or limited to 3 if a 600PA guy). I think you could rough up a comparison without getting too wrapped up. Of course, you can be more rigorous with the calcs, but depends what you are looking for.

Or yeah, you could just ask around for perceptions -- indeed that is simpler But you are likely to have confirmation bias as you may hear more often from those who have had rough injury rolls so far. But hey, I've already said more than you probably cared to solicit.

To more directly answer your question, I haven't done analysis for my teams and have not noticed anything unusual. Wow took me a while to get there!

Good luck and hope the rolls go better for you!
cheers

108 chances on each of the batters and pitchers cards, so its 1/216 chance for an injury split draw for an injury 1 guy.

Hmmm, yes, but since he knows how many batter card lookups in his data actually occurred, I thought then of those actual batter card lookups, it would be of the 108 for each of those cases, as the downstream event (ie cases where the batter card was chosen). Not arguing, just reasoning through the interpretation. Thanks, Frank

Last Barnstormers
1st Round - 89 days
2nd Round - 100 days
3rd round - 81 days
4th Round - 169 days
5th Round - 151 days
6th round - 80 days

1st round 2020 - 78 days with season not done yet.

I have had Barry Bonds miss 21 games with 7 3 game injuries, Currently have Hughie Jennings out 4 times in a season with 246 at bats on his card, which is about the average I seem to see for my higher priced players. Ruth has been injured twice, Willie Keeler 4 times on 157 at bats on his card, and this is been one of my luckier teams for injury. Barnstormers before I had two teams with nearly 200 days of injuries.