Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:55 pm
by ShakeyBoomer
Has anyone ever had a season where your pitchers have a -260 differential on hitters' rolls vs. pitchers' rolls?
Unbelievable how bad my pitching has been because of this.
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1597713
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:02 pm
by ShakeyBoomer
It's now up to +288 hitters rolls and counting...
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:08 pm
by chaberlal
Silver KIng and Three Finger are particularly bullishitted...
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:26 am
by ShakeyBoomer
+347 hitters rolls and counting...
My team has given up 100 more runs than any other team in the league and I have 4 SP's over $11 million in salary. Most teams don't even have 2.
Most f'ing b@#$hit I have ever seen in this game.
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:36 pm
by STEVENSTEFFANNI
feel for you check out this small sample of my offense in a league im in that just started
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1606919 im a newbie but ive seen some wierd shit..I have Greg Holland whose card is as bare as it gets and the same number is rolled 4-9 for a walk 3 times in a row followed by a 4-11 triple 1-12 and game over.......its still a game of luck but the randomness doesnt always seem so random...
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:03 am
by hackra
ShakeyBoomer wrote:+347 hitters rolls and counting...
My team has given up 100 more runs than any other team in the league and I have 4 SP's over $11 million in salary. Most teams don't even have 2.
Most f'ing b@#$hit I have ever seen in this game.
You ARE playing in Coors '99, so should expect the opposition to score some more runs. Yes your pitchers have more rolls on the hitters card...but so do your hitters. While it is perhaps skewed, it is not truly insane.
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:28 am
by paul8210
hackra wrote:ShakeyBoomer wrote:+347 hitters rolls and counting...
My team has given up 100 more runs than any other team in the league and I have 4 SP's over $11 million in salary. Most teams don't even have 2.
Most f'ing b@#$hit I have ever seen in this game.
You ARE playing in Coors '99, so should expect the opposition to score some more runs. Yes your pitchers have more rolls on the hitters card...but so do your hitters. While it is perhaps skewed, it is not truly insane.
A quick, unscientific perusal shows Jim Brewer, for example, having approximately 50 results in which he faced a batter fatigued. That's around 25-30 % of his total rolls. Results skew toward the hitter's card as pitchers become fatigued.
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:26 pm
by ShakeyBoomer
Wow you really don't understand the game. The fact that I am in Coors has nothing at all to do with the number of hitters' rolls my pitchers are experiencing. Currently that sits at +360. My hitters are only +120. Ask any old-timer here how advantageous +240 rolls is to either your hitters or pitchers. As for Coors field, there are numerous other big time hitters' parks in my league. Coors alone does not explain what is happening.
Lastly, a pitcher being fatigued has NOTHING AT ALL TO DO WITH RESULTS BEING SKEWED TOWARDS HITTERS' CARDS.
When a pitcher becomes fatigued, outs that are on their own card turn into hits. It has nothing to do with the hitters' cards.
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:24 pm
by hackra
Wow you really don't understand the game
!!! - as you say
team has given up 100 more runs than any other team in the league - the park DOES impact this
When a pitcher becomes fatigued, outs that are on their own card turn into hits. It has nothing to do with the hitters' cards.
This is what the published card items show on the game rules, HOWEVER, in actuality for the online game (while unpublished and a black box for strat) ---
Results {DO} skew toward the hitter's card as pitchers become fatigued.
Re: Insanely bad luck with rolls
Posted:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:14 pm
by paul8210
Here's an excerpt from the post from FrankieT on 9/05/20 that suggests a relationship between pitcher fatigue and rolls landing on hitter's card. Yes, it does contradict what is stated about PCF in Wikipedia (pitchers' @ changing to hits). but there is a lot of circumstantial evidence suggesting that Wikipedia discussion of PCF in SOM 365 is misstated, or, at least, misleading. On the other hand, maybe the Wikipedia discussion is correct and the game engine incorrectly assigns roll outcomes for those fatigued pitchers possibly to the wrong categorization. It's a black box to say the least. My belief is "black box" rolls of fatigued pitchers are arbitrarily categorized under "hitter rolls" in an effort to aid the manager in identifying weakness in how his pitching staff is being managed. If that's true, then, they should have listed a third category called "Black Box table lookup" instead of misleading us into thinking all rolls are purely either "pitcher" or "hitter".
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Maybe someone with knowledge of the game engine can poke in about the card lookups gradually switching to the hitter card as pitchers get to F0 because I can no longer find it. I don't think I dreamed it, but...
Had a newer player encounter this last year and he had all R1 relievers on most of his teams and was wondering why all his pitchers' split rates of hitter cards was so high--well his relievers were always coming in at F0. Once he fixed that by adding an R3, they no longer came in tired and his card splits corrected.
The way it worked--to my understanding--was this way:
Since PCF results were not just limited to SINGLE**, in the case of a fatigue-inspired hit from the @, the engine first determined what the result was. (Black box--lookup table not available anywhere)
Using that result, it would find the corresponding value (ie walk, single, double etc) on the hitter card and code the play by play outcome that way.
The point is--we don't know what that PCF function looks like."
Last edited by FrankieT on Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.