Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

I am in the midst of compiling data for each of my pitchers in an ATG 9 league to see what the hit+BB pct versus out percentage is for each of the individual rolls thus far in the season. Want to see 1)How my pitchers are performing against their expected outcome (from Diamond Dopes) on their own card, 2) how consistent the performance is on a roll on a hitters card (in terms of pct of rolls resulting in a hit or a walk).

Thus far, overall hit + BB pct on a hitters card roll is around 43%, but we’re only 36 games in. It dawned on me perhaps someone has done this analysis somewhere along the way?

Not sure exactly what you are seeking to achieve, but if it is historical actuals versus carded probabilities over the long term, of course SOM now offers that:
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/playerset/statshistory/292

The thing that is more handy about that link is the performance is over a larger sample, so is likely to be more reliable than a single team case from one environment.

However, it is limited in that it is based on $80M cap only.

I've asked since the rolls were first made public (meaning who's card the results came from) that numbers from their own card (hitter or pitcher) performance be tracked...home and away nice, rightly lefty splits nice, but rolls off card vs on is pretty useless if you don'y know what those rolls generated.

FrankieT wrote:Not sure exactly what you are seeking to achieve, but if it is historical actuals versus carded probabilities over the long term, of course SOM now offers that:
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/playerset/statshistory/292

The thing that is more handy about that link is the performance is over a larger sample, so is likely to be more reliable than a single team case from one environment.

However, it is limited in that it is based on $80M cap only.

Thanks--I guess what I am primarily trying to accomplish is an understanding of how much pitcher performance is truly driven by "bad luck" versus other factors. I have had two pitchers ('71 Seaver and '81 Fingers) massively underperform in ATG9 in different leagues, so wanted to try to understand a little more about what was happening beyond rolls on pitchers car/hitters card. If I know that the whole ATG9 is going to have a hit+BB PCT of about .430 on a hitter's card no matter who I put out there, it helps me understand a little more about what's happening, and informs whether or not I should make a roster move (I do take all of the traditional factors such as ballpark, L/R splits, etc. into account as well).

There was a point I started believing it does not pay to invest in pitching over hitting because most pitchers seem to underperform, but the longer I play, the more nuanced this seems to be. I want to see if there is a way to pre-determine how drastic the "underperformance" will be, and plan accordingly.

Ah, OK. Well good luck. Sounds interesting.

At least at 80M over the longer haul on first glance, they seem to perform about what the card implies. If you are talking about under-performing compared to their actual stats that year, that's a different situation, mostly because we don't limit the card to facing the opponents and parks of its year of play.

To get better pitching outcomes, lower salary caps are a must.

FrankieT wrote:Ah, OK. Well good luck. Sounds interesting.

At least at 80M over the longer haul on first glance, they seem to perform about what the card implies. If you are talking about under-performing compared to their actual stats that year, that's a different situation, mostly because we don't limit the card to facing the opponents and parks of its year of play.

To get better pitching outcomes, lower salary caps are a must.

Freddy Sanchez off his card vs lefties should hit what .600? It would be fun to see that, yes? Shouldn't be hard to determine this on Strat's end.