Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Trying to decide which to play at LF and which to play at DH:

Roy Thomas 4(-2) e4

Ted Williams 3(-1)e11

Is the benefit of going from a "4" to a "3" in LF worth +1 in arm and +7 in errors?

For me it is very close and I'm having difficulty deciding if there is a difference and if so, which way should I go?

If you think the cap matters, the league is $120 DH....balance of small ball and power teams in the league.

I think I'd play Ted. That 3 means he has more of a chance to create an out on a fly ball than Thomas' 4, while the arm in LF comes into play MOST of the time once a hit is already recorded.

X-charts show that a 3 in LF has a 30% chance of giving up a hit. A 4-range has a 55% chance of the hit. Big difference between OF and IF is that the OF will give up doubles and triples based on range whereas IF will only give up SI.

2 Error gives it up on the 3 and 18 (1 base error) and 16 (2 base error).
11 error gives it up on the 4 and 16 (1 base error), 13 and 15 (2 base error) and 3 and 18 (3 base error).

Regardless of whether ranges ends up in a hit or not, error will get checked. Hate giving up the hit plus error. I'd err on the lower range in the OF.

The defensive NERP difference between the two has Williams 1 run better than Thomas, and I believe the arm in left is substantially less important. I would put Thomas at DH.

I would play Williams in LF for sure

The real moral of the story is Thomas is a terrible DH and you shouldn't ever use him.

Ever.

To help, I will reluctantly try to draft him whenever I can. You're welcome.