Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/l ... am/1625284

Piazza has been injured SIX times in 280 plate appearances. His injury is on a 2 so it's a 1 in 216 chance of happening.

Worst of all, he has been injured in THREE CONSECUTIVE GAMES ... WTF HAL???

Injured in game 76 for 3 additional games.
Returned for game 80 and subsequently injured for 5 additional games.
Returned for game 86 and got injured for 1 additional game.

So in his last 9 plate appearances, he has been injured 3 times. Meaning a 1 in 216 chance has happened 1 in 3 times. I defy any of you to beat that one.

Can one of you math whizzes give me the odds on that????

Maybe you should buy a lotto ticket

egvrich wrote:https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/league/injuries/team/1625284

Piazza has been injured SIX times in 280 plate appearances. His injury is on a 2 so it's a 1 in 216 chance of happening.

Worst of all, he has been injured in THREE CONSECUTIVE GAMES ... WTF HAL???

Injured in game 76 for 3 additional games.
Returned for game 80 and subsequently injured for 5 additional games.
Returned for game 86 and got injured for 1 additional game.

So in his last 9 plate appearances, he has been injured 3 times. Meaning a 1 in 216 chance has happened 1 in 3 times. I defy any of you to beat that one.

Can one of you math whizzes give me the odds on that????

If you go back and look at some of your teams Id bet you will find many similar egregious thing- ive had a team of almost all '1' injuries reach almost 200 days of injuries-- there is some black box thing that seems to happen to teams- not sure how it works but this would be yet another example.

More likely just when there are a lot of events everything will happen eventually. I checked with an acutuay I know and they estimated that with a 1/216 chance the odds of it happening 3 times out of 9 events is about 1 in 123,000 (note this assumes the injury could be on any of the 9 , like at-bat 2,5, and 7 maybe or 1,2,8. i.e. any 3 at-bats in the 9 could be an injury).

I don't know how many 365 games are played per year, but I've been doing it for less than a year and have over 2500 games so there is going to be a lot more than 123,000 games played per year. So the odds are that it will happen somewhere to someone. You were just the lucky (unlucky) guy who got it this time.

I am kind of curious about how many of these games are played per year for all members. Has anyone ever heard of a number or approximation that SOM has published?