Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

I just had my first 100 win team. I heard all the rumblings of a curse whereby 100 win teams routinely get eliminated in the playoffs. I was eliminated in Round 1 in a 24 team league by the 8 seed just the other day; I was the 1 seed.

So I'm curious, how prevalent of an issue is this? Perhaps this is just a glitch in their programming to equally dole out credits or maybe Hal just likes the Underdogs overcoming the big bad Favorites.

Or...maybe Strat has it right?

In MLB History 109 teams have won 100 games or more. Since the advent of The World Series in 1905 only 37 of those 109 teams won the championship. That’s not a high number at all.

The odds get even lower in the modern era. Since 1961 there have been 66 teams to win 100 games and only 16 of those teams won the Championship. That includes the team with the most wins ever in a regular season (the 98 Mariners) who were handily dispatched by the greatest franchise in team sports history.

This also includes a stretch after the dominant Core 4 ’98 Yankees 100+ win team won it all where 16 100 win teams in a row failed to win a title until the Bombers snapped that streak in 2009.

So what are the Strat odds to win a title after notching 100 wins? Perhaps all 100 wins gets you is...100 wins.

I know I dont have a good record with my 100 win teams. But the one thing to keep in mind is how you match up with play-off teams. You can dominate some bad teams but if you match up against a team that you struggled against in the regular season, well, that's what matters. And certain teams might be better crafted for the play-offs than others

I consider myself the king of ATG conspiracy theories ...

So for me it's a yes. I'd much rather win 89 games than 100 as stupid as that sounds. It may not specifically be 100, it's just that those teams stand out so much more than a 99 win team does when you look at your past teams. It absolutely seems to me that my 100 win teams regulary do not meet up with expectations come playoff time considering they were typically the league's best team during the regular season.

It always felt real to me. I then went back over all of my playoff teams and learned that my 100+ win teams actually had a significantly higher championship conversation rate. So for me the emotional impact of a 100 win team flaming out must have biased my perceptions! -matt

This is a semi-annual discussion. I feel like there should also be a mattress sale every time this topic comes up.

Sadly I have had no 100 win ATG teams since last time this discussion happened, although I had a 2019 team flame out in the semis after 100 wins. Since this is posted in the ATG side, I can just cut and paste from my response in the last one.

Using only my ATG teams, I have had 12 teams get to 100 wins.

7 won the finals (58%)
3 lost the finals (and once to another 100 win team) (25%)
1 lost in the Semis (8%)
1 lost in the quarterfinals in a 24 team league (8%) (interestingly, this team had 100 wins but was a wildcard and finished 9 games back in the division )

my 100 win ATG teams have made the finals 83% of the time, and taken the title 64% of the time. Not a curse for me.

I have had 9 teams get to 100 wins

6 won the finals
1 lost the finals
2 lost in the Semis

In order to get to 100 Wins, you would have to create a team that would dominate your own division, as that is who you play the majority of your games against and conversely it would also mean your div. opponents are not that strong fundamentally to begin with. I can only speak for myself but when I create a team, its the division opponents who I'm more concerned with. It may be a faulty strategy and if I get to 100, its by accident usually. Not sure how many other owners go division first, but the "curse" is a product of 100 win teams not matching up well with out of division opponents IMO

100 win teams are for over achievers.

Utter nonsense. No it is not real but is rather a function of perceptual biases. People naturally get emotionally invested when they have a 100 win team and believe that they should win because they had the best record. When one expects to win and does so there is a sense of rightness to the outcome. When it fails to win this is experienced as somehow wrong and undeserved and it thus inherently stressful. The resultant cognitive dissonance renders the event more memorable.

The last time this topic came up I went through all my 100 win teams in ATG 8. I posted the results on the boards. Don't recall the specifics but they certainly won more than the a priori expectancy of 25%.

As someone who is terrible generally in semi final series my record with 100 win teams is 9-0 in the semis and 7-2 in the Finals. But even if that were not the case I would say the 100 win curse is bs. I currently have a team at 96-60 rather than benching my injury prone players I have been going all out to win 100