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one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:03 am
by STEVENSTEFFANNI
Lost a game at home last night 1 - 0...my team has the second most runs scored in the league..whats so special you ask???....the rolls FAVORED the pitcher 27 to 6 !!!!!!!....dont think Ive ever seen a game so one sided...the last 15 rolls were ALL for the pitcher!

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:06 pm
by FrankieT
Happens in stretches. Funny I usually only notice when it goes against me, and ignore the other ones because of course I am an infallible manager and the results make sense when in my favor!

But, that's the essence of a small sample on a binomial distribution.

Here's to your eventual regression to the mean, which I am sure already occurred :)

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:21 pm
by STEVENSTEFFANNI
Happens in stretches. Funny I usually only notice when it goes against me, and ignore the other ones because of course I am an infallible manager and the results make sense when in my favor!.....

I will be watching the other side a lot closer too

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:46 pm
by FrankieT
Hey that was my line ;)

So you edited your post to say "the last 15 rolls were ALL for the pitcher".
Do you mean 15 consecutive rolls across both teams?
Or just against your team while hitting?

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:43 pm
by labratory
Even more frustrating is when you get 7 rolls on the pitcher's card.

Then Frankie Crosetti and the pitcher's spot come up and you roll 1-5's.

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:16 pm
by STEVENSTEFFANNI
FrankieT wrote:Hey that was my line ;)

So you edited your post to say "the last 15 rolls were ALL for the pitcher".
Do you mean 15 consecutive rolls across both teams?
Or just against your team while hitting?


the last 15 rolls of the game when my offense was at bat ALL went to the pitcher card

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/play ... 454921/694

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:41 am
by FrankieT
Ah ok--that's worse for you, but probably not as unlikely statistically as 15 in a row without interruption as I see it. Taking it out of SOM world, I think it is like the difference between:

A-flipping 3 heads on 3 tries every odd day for five days, while flipping both heads/tails on 3 tries on the even days in between.
versus
B-sitting down and flipping 15 heads in a row, one after another in one sitting.
It's nuance and framing of the problem, but Ito me it makes a difference for why I asked.

Why I asked: It was not to badger you! As you may or may not know,there is some black-box-ism inside the online version of the game that is different from the straight PC game (like bullpen AI). Many chains of table lookups or other "outcome paths" to results are not available to us. Some effects are gameplay choices available in the straight PC version, but some effects are via add-ons/scripts unique to the online version. For example, pitcher fatigue switching card lookups to hitter cards, bullpen AI etc. example: https://stratomatic365.fandom.com/wiki/Super-Advanced_Point_of_Weakness

So, I am always interested in statistical anomalies that have unlikely explanations based on random outcomes, as a game player, since the game is statistically based, but by no means pure chance that we can calculate exactly due to what's under the hood. My take isn't the only way to look at this but it works for me. And usually it isn't a single anecdote that reveals anything, but you never know.

Hopefully didn't sound like I was badgering you, as you didn't imply there was something wrong, just that it was ridiculously bad luck. I was curious. Wishing you better rolls on the wholes...

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:56 am
by STEVENSTEFFANNI
didnt feel badgered at all...not sure I understood your meaning in all you said but if your trying to say you not sure if random luck or other unknow workings inside the mind of Hal or both are the driving force of this computer program generated game I get it.....my current team also is on a wierd run..lost 3 won 3 lost 3 won 3 and last night i played another 1st place team and won 2-0 1-0 3-0.....

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:53 pm
by FrankieT
cheers

Re: one sided rolls

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:09 pm
by labratory
ast night i played another 1st place team and won 2-0 1-0 3-0.....


A 3 game series where your opponent fails to score a run? I think that's more rare than 15 pitcher's rolls in a row.