Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

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Outta Leftfield

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Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostTue Dec 17, 2024 11:50 am

Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button on the "Hitter Prefs" Page? HAL often seems to me overly aggressive about making defensive substitutions--sometime, in fact, inserting a player who is weaker both on offense and on defense. And opposing teams have such outstanding offenses that no lead is safe. If your team's 3 run lead disappears in the blink of an eye, don't you wish you had your starting batter still in the lineup?
HAL seems to me to be at its worst making defensive subs at catcher. On a current team, HAL replaced my starting C, Dickey 6.22M, with Wolters .5M in the 7th inning of game 4 of the semi-finals. We were leading 9-6 in the 7th when Wolters came in, and we held on to win 12-11 in the 11th inning--and made it to the Finals-- but with no thanks at all to Wolters. And when I looked back at the whole season, I realized that Wolters had been used as a defensive sub about 30 times. As I looked over the whole schedule, it seemed to me that these substitutions may have cost me a couple of games. Here's the team: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1787285
The first problem is that Dickey is not only a much better hitter but IMHO a better defensive catcher than Wolters. Dickey is c-1(-1)e4,T-5(pb-2) and Wolters is c-3(-3)e1,T-6(pb-3). Wolters does have a -3 arm, but his range, passed balls, and throwing arm are worse than Dickey. So why take Dickey (an excellent .918 OPS) out to put in Wolters (.458 OPS), especially when the game is close enough for the opposing team to come back? My guess is that HAL is somehow keyed to look at the catcher's throwing arm in exclusion of all else. But if your team has a lead, the opponents aren't likely to attempt to steal, are they? So the other factors matter more.
And then there's what happened in this semi-final game 4, which really got me annoyed. Wolters came in when my team had a 3 run lead, but the opponents scored five runs in the 8th and 9th. Meanwhile, my guys scored 2. So we're knotted at 11-11 going into the 10th. Wolters had batted twice, making out both times. And in his second at bat, in the top of the 10th, Wolters gets injured. So now I have no rated catcher, and instead of an improved defense, my defense is thrown into disarray. HAL moves 3B Walling (2e18) to C and moves my backup OF Taguchi (not rated there) to 3B. In the bottom of the 10th, my opponent has two men on with no outs and a roll comes up on C-x. Somehow, we get an out, or that would have been the ballgame. In the top of the 11th, Turkey hits solo a HR for me, so we're one ahead. But some big bats are looming in the bottom of the 11th. King Kelly walks. Teddy Ballgame grounds out, Kelly advancing to 2nd. Then, my awful sub-sub catcher commits a passed ball with Mantle up, moving Kelly to 3B.Then, in a deux ex machina, Mick hits into a Line Out (2B) Double Play on a 2-2 roll, and the game is over. We win and move on to the finals. But with no thanks to the Wolters substitution at C.
I think it's clear that HAL isn't competent to make defensive substituions without direction from a team's manager. We can manage substitutions on the Team Strategy page, but we can't now prevent HAL from making unwanted and clearly ill-advised substituions. And I really wish we had a button "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" on the hitter prefs page. We do have a "Don't PR for". Why not have an equivalent button for defensive subs.
What do you think? Do you agree that we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?
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ScumbyJr

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostTue Dec 17, 2024 1:01 pm

I don't know if it related, but HAL is overly aggressive in stealing despite team settings.
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Toady

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostTue Dec 17, 2024 5:18 pm

I agree 110% with Leftfield. If at all possible that is a fix SOM should make. I learned early on that HAL makes silly defensive replacements (Ken Berry replacing Ted Williams in the 3rd batting slot!). During team construction I always double check my backups are crappy fielders to keep HAL from doing this. BUT, I never thought about catcher and I sometimes like to use Wolters. Ooops....better start watching out for that.
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Big Fred Whitfield

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostTue Dec 17, 2024 6:20 pm

Wolters is also an infamous late inning sub for HAL at frigging SECOND BASE 2B, because he qualifies there

talk about frosting a GMs late inning behind, that and other inane crud really bug me ala Sylvester in the old movie Mad Mad Mad Mad World
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Sweet Swinging 26

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostTue Dec 17, 2024 6:28 pm

Yes to the DON'T REPLACE FOR DEF SUB. Even though I generally don't seem to have an issue with this particular problem, but it still makes sense.

And we should have steal settings for each base. Stealing 2nd base is a far cry from stealing home, yet they are governed by the same exact settings.

And we should have team settings for each game in the playoffs so you can plan your game strategy based upon the opposing pitcher (and catcher's) strengths and weaknesses and the opposing team's lineup vs. your pitcher. It's great that you can do it in games 5-7, but you can't in games 1-4.
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southpawcom

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostTue Dec 17, 2024 11:46 pm

I am convinced that post-season games are played on an entirely different server. Low-chance and inexplicable things happen in post-season games that don't in the regular season. Not going to say that owners' lifetime records tip the table to some degree. But I just did.

If there was a "Don't Remove for Defensive Sub" setting, count on Hal to find a way to make you regret using it.
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Palmtana

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostWed Dec 18, 2024 5:47 am

Sweet Swinging 26 wrote:....And we should have steal settings for each base. Stealing 2nd base is a far cry from stealing home, yet they are governed by the same exact settings.

And we should have team settings for each game in the playoffs so you can plan your game strategy based upon the opposing pitcher (and catcher's) strengths and weaknesses and the opposing team's lineup vs. your pitcher. It's great that you can do it in games 5-7, but you can't in games 1-4.


Asking for minute control has been a request for a long time. SOM may wander by the Boards, maybe not. To be sure you're heard, email them....365support@strat-o-matic.com.
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Palmtana

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostWed Dec 18, 2024 6:17 am

southpawcom wrote:I am convinced that post-season games are played on an entirely different server. Low-chance and inexplicable things happen in post-season games that don't in the regular season. Not going to say that owners' lifetime records tip the table to some degree. But I just did.....


southpawcom, how did you come to be convinced that post-season games are played on an entirely different server? Post some specifics.

What "Low-chance and inexplicable things" did you see happen in post-season games that don't happen in the regular season? Details, please.

Your opinion about an owners lifetime record affecting outcomes is wish-washy...."Not going to say..."...."to some degree..."but I just did"...I think your saying that HAL is biased in favor of those who have had success in the past.
Go ahead and post some data so the community can judge whether you are right or not.
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BC15NY

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostWed Dec 18, 2024 9:00 am

Palmtana wrote:
southpawcom wrote:I am convinced that post-season games are played on an entirely different server. Low-chance and inexplicable things happen in post-season games that don't in the regular season. Not going to say that owners' lifetime records tip the table to some degree. But I just did.....


southpawcom, how did you come to be convinced that post-season games are played on an entirely different server? Post some specifics.

What "Low-chance and inexplicable things" did you see happen in post-season games that don't happen in the regular season? Details, please.

Your opinion about an owners lifetime record affecting outcomes is wish-washy...."Not going to say..."...."to some degree..."but I just did"...I think your saying that HAL is biased in favor of those who have had success in the past.
Go ahead and post some data so the community can judge whether you are right or not.


Another legitimate thread hijacked by a conspiracy theory.

Based on my experience and looking at the Top 5 all-time in championships, I don't see it. All 5 have lower winning percentages in the playoffs and most are dramatically lower.

Baseball 365 by Strat-O-Matic Career Records: Top 200

Name # Teams W L Pct Playoffs W L Pct Champs
nevdully's 2,438 212,984 181,972 .539 1,421 6,170 5,593 .525 461
The Last Druid 2,112 185,388 156,756 .542 1,316 6,327 5,537 .533 428
nomadbrad 1,435 129,832 102,638 .558 1,023 5,014 4,367 .534 367
DGF102052 2,559 214,972 199,586 .519 1,090 4,716 4,658 .503 310
Frank Bailey 2,050 175,453 156,646 .528 1,021 4,341 4,138 .512 285

The 'another server' theory seems nonsensical to me. The game recap doesn't even acknowledge a postseason. It is presented as though another regular season just started.
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southpawcom

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Re: Do we need a "Don't Replace for Defensive Sub" button?

PostWed Dec 18, 2024 7:03 pm

I think it's fair to ask me to post specifics to back up my inkling that post-season games are played on a different server. However, given how difficult it is for me to harvest game data from past seasons and then analyze it, I hope you'll understand that I have to pass and give you that.

Truly, all I've got is qualitative, observational data that PS games and series shift leads far more frequently than they do in the regular season. Low probability split chances come through more frequently. Injuries and game-changing errors/passed balls/wild pitches occur more frequently. Otherwise infallible closers surrender large leads and walk-off victories occur more frequently.

Mind you, I'm not suggesting any of this with a judgment, good or bad. These hypercharged plays can be exciting. But, yes, it's my observation that the game play FEELS different in the post-season. My only supposition to account for it is that the games are played on a different server.

And while it is true that the game accounts seem ignorant of the fact that they are about PS games, this is offset by the fact that PS statistics are tracked separately from RS stats. So there is no question that the system "knows" about the PS.

BC15NY, thanks for researching that data on the top players' RS/PS winning pct. If anything, it supports my points. Funny things happen in the PS. If they didn't, shouldn't those winning pcts. be about equal between RS and PS?

And note, I didn't say that the table might be tipped toward those with the best lifetime records. I just said the table might be tipped based on lifetime records.

Now I ask forgiveness for hijacking an otherwise good post with a conspiracy theory, if that's what you want to call it. Carry on! :)
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