Does Run Differential Mean Anything?

Just had a team finish with the best R/D in the league and a projected W/L record of 100 - 62 that finished with 86 wins and didn't even make the playoffs.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/472747

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1794227

So I'm wondering how much R/D really matters???

Here's another interesting example:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/472465

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1794900

R/D says I should be leading my division by 33 games, when in reality, I'm only up by 7 games. At least this team should make the playoffs.

I don't think it means a lot - I've had teams on both sides of that (great run differential, relatively poor record - or poor run differential, much better record than expected). I think a lot of it has to do with either luck, or with some specific issue in how the team is set up or performing - e.g., for the Forbes field team using the "4 aces" approach, I'm guess starter fatigue issues have given up some leads late in close games. For the Braves field team it looks more like luck: you've lost a number of close games (1- or 2-run games) and won a number of blow-outs.

In most cases (maybe 80% of the time or more) having a plus 100 or higher run differential means that you have a really good team. A do think run differential indicates strong teams. However, a weak bullpen can cost you close games as well as having one of those seasons where your opponent constantly makes that HR 2 out the rest split in big spots, or your 1e10 secondbaseman commits an error that costs a game or your stud closer gives up 1-4 homer shot to the opposition all season long. It happens.

Just looking back at my last six autoleagues, the teams that had a +100 or more run differential were 6 for 6 in winning the division.

Just had a team finish with the best R/D in the league and a projected W/L record of 100 - 62 that finished with 86 wins and didn't even make the playoffs.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/472747

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1794227

So I'm wondering how much R/D really matters???

The RD is skewed by a division containing two other decent teams and a unbelievably bad team that shed payroll.

other than marginal factors per each division and league, such as other GM levels, I think cumulatively and across the board, Run Differential is the ONLY objective criteria useful for showing luck, bad or good

if a team is within a few games either way of it's "expected" (because your team has scored "x" amount of runs and given up "y" amount of runs) win-loss totals, then little or no luck is involved (except other smaller factors like 1-run game W-L record, and xtra inning W-L record) and the teams is doing about as well (or not) as it should be on paper, as reflected in the performance

of course, the above isn't taking into account individual player luck, team slumps, etc, but that's what the advantage of a large data field of 162 games, just as in real life, it evens the playing field over all those games

conversely, if the team is more than a few games either way more or less than expected win total (I' regularly screwed by HAL on about 70% of teams, but my record in short experience is around 11 or 12 games worse than my team should have had), then that's showing either good or bad fortune

W-L record (or comparing them) doesnt mean anything, because lucky teams with a low run differential can win a lot of games and high run differential teams can be unlucky and barely be above .500 or even below

and if you observe or review the teams in each league with the highest run differential, or even analyze all of one's teams for comparison, I've found that not exactly and not always, but a general and strong rule of thumb is that the teams with higher run differential were better even if their record didn't indicate it (or the stats the players put up), just on paper they looked better

could be wrong, ive a grain of sand about the size of Mario Mendoza's batting average of total overall experience, so I could be talking out my paul ASSenmacher, but that''s my 2 cents ; - \

Run diff is a misleading stat. As mentioned, it could simply mean that you play in a weak division.

A good power team will often have a higher run diff than a good smallball team.

A good team with good starting pitching will often have a higher run diff than a team built around a good bullpen.

Here's another interesting example:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/472465

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1794900

R/D says I should be leading my division by 33 games, when in reality, I'm only up by 7 games. At least this team should make the playoffs.

This one is wild

Run diff is a misleading stat. As mentioned, it could simply mean that you play in a weak division.

A good power team will often have a higher run diff than a good smallball team.

A good team with good starting pitching will often have a higher run diff than a team built around a good bullpen.

rather than me disagreeing, because I am unsure, could you kindly explain how is is misleading ?
"A good power team will often have a higher run diff than a good smallball team." ?....this doesnt seem to make sense on surface...both teams are subject to their respective pitching staffs and how many runs they allow (in those parks)....a good pitching staff will allow less overall runs in a small ball park than the same staff would allow in a HR park....so how does the power team have an inherently higher run differential ?.....don't you mean "they just score more runs" (on offense) in general ?

i agree to a lesser extent each team's differential will be affected by division and to a slightly lesser extent the entire league, but for example if one GM has 100 teams completed and the cumulative total of their teams is positive or negative, that's gonna show team success or not (wouldn't it ?).....because all the different divisions (easier or more competitive) grouped together balance each other out....

differential is just the aggregate of what each team tries to do (outscore their opponents) in every sport.....and though winning a game 2-1 or 10-1 both count as one win, the run differential data takes into consideration that a lot more runs were scored in the 2nd game and if added up, shows that teams offensive + defensive (pitching) success

maybe im misunderstanding, but if you check the NFL standings for example, any given week, and it shows the -L record but also points scored and allowed, and 2 teams have an identical 9-7 record, but one team has an almost even run differential and the other team has like a +100, it's easy to see that the +100 team either had some bad luck (to have only a 9-7 record), or the almost even differential team had some good luck to have that same record.....

at least, that's always how I've looked at it, for almost 60 years now of following stats, maybe i've been wrong all this time ;- 0

Bomber teams tend to have a lot of blowout wins (15-6 type games) and then lose the close games because they spent more on hitting than pitching.

I tend to play smallball teams more often than anything else, which makes it odd that my smallball teams are underperforming their R/D quite regularly. I'd be comfortable saying that about 2/3 of my teams are underperforming their projected record quite often by 5 or more games.