The Key to Success

After all these years, I have finally figured out the key to success in Strat, at least in the regular season ... LUCK.

Just kidding. It's NOT run differential. Rather, it is your record in ONE RUN GAMES.

Take a look ... Teams with a good record in one run games generally are better than their projected record and teams with a bad record in one run games are typically worse.

Here's a great example league:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/473146

Now, how do you control that? Beats me, maybe better relievers in the late innings.

Thoughts?

Here's another good example league:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/473400

simple HAL's Bullpen Mismanagement mainly due to limited settings and the mismanagement of those available. the most successful teams use all under 2 million RP Onlys which is equivalent to all MLB teams only having RP's making close to the league Union minimum. I don't know how much work or expense is required to fix it. You'd think a programmer could fix it
easily? but the Bullpen is a product of "Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it". few years back the minions were bitching about some RP's pitching too many innings and being way under-priced. Dale Murray and Bruce Sutter were at the top of every draft list. Strat over-corrected., so now most RP Only's never get drafted. with games on the line you get 9L LHRP's pitching to 9R RHB's. also everyone playing platoons with the platoon pinch hitter option, is a leading contributor. Start a League with 85 million Cap with a minimum of 5-7 mil having to be spent on RP Onlys that have to remain on the roster.

I have started to go away from 9R / 9L relievers and instead have a 4 man bullpen of E rated pitchers and assigning 2 roles to each.

Closer/Tied & 9th
Set Up / Tied & Late
Set Up / Middle Man
Mopup

Or something similar depending upon the relievers themselves and it actually seems to work better which is why I'm thinking spending a bit more on relievers might we the solution.

I've looked at nearly every league that I'm in and it does seem that as a general rule, teams with a highly positive record in 1 run games overperform their pythagorean projected record with the opposite being true for teams that underperform.

There's leagues where R/D says I should be up by 10 games in my division but I'm 4 behind, then I look at 1 run games and I'm -7 and the guy in first is +6. Which is what got me thinking.

The DH is a major factor in this. Leagues without the DH will use the extreme platoon relievers in disadvantageous situations much more often -- self-explanatory with pinch-hitting and all. DH leagues at lower caps (80 and 100) allow pitchers to cruise if they are 9*, so less chance of bad situations for the extreme cheap relievers.

In DH leagues if you have a Four Ace 9* strategy, the cheap, extreme relievers under 1M are fine. Usually for a luxury, I like a guy like Otis Lambeth $1.34M as the E type that Hal would go to amongst a bunch of extreme split relievers. Like this team in a $80M DH league:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1802385

Salary cap is also another factor, totally changes when you're in a $140M or $200M league, of course better relievers.

Ballpark, too, is a factor. Have no data, but it seems that small ball teams at lower caps would -- or need to -- win more of those 1 run games, whereas the bomber teams, and especially those at high caps, are involved in games with many more runs. Runs are more scarce in small ball venues, obviously.

Division opponents matter as well -- are they lefty, righty, bomber parks, small ball? So, a lot of variables and factors across different salary caps and roster construction, pitching in particular.

That said, I probably agree on points above -- in lower caps, think that a couple extreme cheap relievers under $1M and an E reliever or two slightly over $1M seems like an optimal strategy with a Four Ace strategy *9. You can stretch it with an *8 in that rotation as well to free up a little money. I even sometimes like a *7 guy like Scherzer -- the 8R -- paired with *9 aces if a lot of righty parks are in the division or league.

On 1 run games, here's a small ball team of mine that is 11-25 in 1-run games: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1799283

Yikes, a big loser overall. Thought this team would be better.