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Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:17 am
by barrmorris
First, I’m aware that the Tournament page is not showing League 7. I have contacted SOM and hope that gets fixed soon.

The staggered starts of leagues in the Players’ Championship make it difficult to really know who’s leading. Note that with games through Saturday the 30th, League 1 has played 36 games and League 7 has played 3. For that reason, and because I enjoy stuff like this, I’ve built a model to estimate final points for all managers. The model uses the manager’s record with the 2021 card set to develop an expected record in Event 1 prior to the start of the tournament (prior distribution). Then the actual record is factored in, and using Bayesian statistical methods, the model develops a projected record (posterior distribution). For now, the top 4 teams in each league are projected to earn 3 playoff wins each.

Based on games through Saturday, April 30 (and including League 7), the model projects the following for the top 36:

RankownerPred. Points thru E1
12cityfan100.5
2milleram97.4
3Delbird95.3
4Axlerod Gunderson95.1
5ScumbyJr95.0
6the420dude94.8
7stevep10794.7
8mesquiton94.7
9Gilbo94.0
10Jeepdriver93.7
11barrmorris93.5
12keyzick92.8
13moodysix92.5
14Lee30092.3
15mpcharette92.0
16l.strether91.1
17DERRICKSANSON89.8
18TVF3389.7
19RICHARDGAGNON89.4
20gioccobazzi88.1
21chris_s86.8
22exwallman86.8
23Spider 6786.8
24rudys raiders86.7
25XHowser Jr.86.7
26ycbill86.4
27SteadyEddie3386.3
28uncle ny85.2
29teamnasty82.9
30hendrix0882.5
31Knerrpool82.4
32klx2282.0
33Morpheus81.9
34brlcal59@yahoo.ca81.8
35rickburr81.8
36Nick_danger81.4

Re: Tournament Standings - through 5/2

PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2023 9:56 am
by barrmorris
Based on games through 5/2

RankownerPred. Points thru E1
1Axlerod Gunderson100.4
22cityfan100.4
3the420dude96.9
4Delbird95.5
5milleram95.5
6l.strether95.4
7ScumbyJr95.1
8stevep10794.8
9Jeepdriver94.0
10barrmorris93.7
11mesquiton93.3
12moodysix92.8
13chris_s92.6
14TVF3392.3
15klx2291.1
16Gilbo91.0
17Spider 6789.3
18wjb2389.1
19gioccobazzi89.0
20Lee30088.9
21uncle ny88.4
22mpcharette88.3
23DERRICKSANSON88.0
24keyzick87.9
25exwallman87.4
26Lochinvars87.0
27teamnasty86.4
28CirrhoticLiver86.2
29SteadyEddie3385.9
30rudys raiders84.6
31waynick83.2
32Morpheus82.8
33djp_7782.5
34Alexander Supertramp82.3
35cummings282.0
36RICHARDGAGNON82.0

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2023 3:05 pm
by barrmorris
Based on games through 5/5

RankownerPred. Points thru E1
1Axlerod Gunderson103.4
22cityfan98.6
3milleram97.2
4Delbird95.7
5the420dude95.0
6SteadyEddie3394.5
7TVF3394.5
8ScumbyJr93.5
9Gilbo93.3
10moodysix93.1
11DERRICKSANSON92.7
12Jeepdriver92.6
13barrmorris92.3
14l.strether91.7
15keyzick91.7
16stevep10791.5
17klx2291.4
18Lee30089.6
19chris_s89.5
20mpcharette88.8
21rudys raiders88.4
22gioccobazzi88.0
23Lochinvars87.9
24RICHARDGAGNON87.6
25mesquiton87.4
26teamnasty86.9
27WJS676886.7
28Morpheus86.6
29Spider 6786.5
30wjb2384.9
31Phila0183.7
32Alexander Supertramp83.2
33exwallman83.2
34cummings283.1
35CirrhoticLiver82.3
36waynick82.3

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2023 8:33 am
by barrmorris
Games through 5/8

RankownerPred. Points thru E1
1Axlerod Gunderson101.3
2SteadyEddie3399.5
32cityfan98.6
4DERRICKSANSON96.7
5TVF3396.4
6Delbird95.9
7Gilbo95.3
8the420dude95.1
9chris_s94.5
10milleram93.9
11moodysix93.3
12wjb2393.3
13barrmorris92.6
14keyzick92.0
15Lee30092.0
16Jeepdriver91.3
17ScumbyJr90.4
18l.strether90.2
19klx2290.1
20uncle ny89.8
21waynick89.1
22stevep10788.6
23RICHARDGAGNON88.5
24CirrhoticLiver87.6
25Phila0187.6
26cummings287.1
27gioccobazzi87.1
28teamnasty85.9
29mesquiton84.8
30mpcharette84.5
31Morpheus84.3
32brlcal59@yahoo.ca84.3
33rickburr84.3
34Alexander Supertramp83.9
35Lochinvars83.8
36rudys raiders82.8

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2023 7:57 am
by barrmorris
Through 5/11. Event 2 will be added when it closes (and when it's added to tournament page).

RankownerPred. Points thru E1
12cityfan103.2
2SteadyEddie3399.5
3Axlerod Gunderson97.9
4Gilbo97.2
5DERRICKSANSON96.7
6chris_s94.6
7barrmorris94.4
8moodysix93.5
9the420dude93.5
10Delbird92.9
11waynick92.6
12milleram92.5
13Lee30092.4
14keyzick92.2
15l.strether92.2
16wjb2392.0
17gioccobazzi91.0
18TVF3390.8
19klx2290.4
20stevep10790.4
21ScumbyJr89.2
22uncle ny88.5
23mpcharette88.0
24Lochinvars87.6
25exwallman87.1
26mesquiton86.9
27brlcal59@yahoo.ca86.6
28Morpheus86.4
29teamnasty86.2
30chaberlal84.8
31Phila0183.7
32Spider 6783.3
33RICHARDGAGNON83.3
34cummings283.2
35Alexander Supertramp83.1
36CirrhoticLiver82.2

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2023 8:51 am
by barrmorris
Games through 5/14. My position will change quickly when Event 2 is included.


RankownerPred. Points thru E1
12cityfan101.5
2barrmorris98.9
3SteadyEddie3396.7
4DERRICKSANSON94.9
5Axlerod Gunderson94.9
6Gilbo94.6
7wjb2393.7
8chris_s93.2
9milleram92.7
10klx2292.2
11the420dude92.0
12Lochinvars91.7
13Delbird91.7
14waynick91.5
15Lee30091.3
16keyzick91.1
17TVF3391.0
18ScumbyJr91.0
19moodysix90.8
20l.strether90.8
21CirrhoticLiver90.1
22stevep10789.2
23rudys raiders88.8
24mpcharette88.5
25teamnasty88.0
26uncle ny87.4
27Morpheus87.1
28brlcal59@yahoo.ca85.9
29rickburr85.9
30gioccobazzi85.6
31chaberlal85.4
32Phila0184.4
33cummings284.1
34mesquiton83.1
35ycbill82.9
36freeman82.7

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2023 9:48 am
by barrmorris
Games through 5/18. Still only event 1 as I'm waiting for Strat to update tournament page with event 2.

RankownerPred. Points thru E1
12cityfan99.1
2barrmorris97.9
3waynick96.5
4SteadyEddie3396.0
5klx2294.3
6Gilbo94.2
7DERRICKSANSON93.9
8Axlerod Gunderson93.9
9the420dude92.8
10Delbird92.6
11milleram92.0
12cummings291.8
13ScumbyJr91.8
14wjb2391.6
15rudys raiders91.5
16mpcharette91.0
17Lee30090.9
18uncle ny90.3
19TVF3390.2
20stevep10790.0
21chris_s89.8
22Morpheus89.6
23ycbill89.6
24moodysix88.9
25l.strether88.6
26rickburr88.6
27CirrhoticLiver88.5
28mesquiton87.2
29keyzick86.6
30Lochinvars85.1
31freeman83.9
32Spider 6783.7
33brlcal59@yahoo.ca82.9
34Phila0182.9
35WJS676882.8
36MochaDog82.8

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2023 3:13 pm
by barrmorris
It wasn't to hard to modify this so I'm not dependent on Strat's tournament page. This now includes predictions for event 2. I also made a small modification to how it predicts playoff points. Still just assuming 3 points for each playoff team, but now handle wildcard teams better.


MemberEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Best 4
1 waynick96.4789.75000186.2
2 the420dude92.8092.89000185.6
3 DERRICKSANSON93.9489.63000183.5
4 Axlerod Gunderson93.9289.03000182.9
5 wjb2391.6491.28000182.9
6 milleram91.9789.03000181.0
7 2cityfan99.0881.15000180.2
8 barrmorris97.9381.66000179.6
9 ycbill89.6189.14000178.7
10 Spider 6783.7094.64000178.3
11 moodysix88.8589.14000177.9
12 Gilbo94.1983.27000177.4
13 mpcharette91.0486.41000177.4
14 rickburr88.6087.83000176.4
15 CirrhoticLiver85.4789.75000175.2
16 Lee30090.8684.35000175.2
17 RICHARDGAGNON81.4893.12000174.6
18 SteadyEddie3395.9778.56000174.5
19 hendrix0880.3093.72000174.0
20 brlcal59@yahoo.ca82.9089.22000172.1
21 cummings291.8480.18000172.0
22 rudys raiders91.4680.18000171.6
23 Alexander Supertramp82.4388.70000171.1
24 mesquiton87.1683.93000171.1
25 stevep10789.9880.25000170.2
26 uncle ny90.3479.86000170.2
27 l.strether88.6181.15000169.7
28 exwallman85.7983.58000169.3
29 thisisray80.0689.22000169.2
30 freeman83.9085.35000169.2
31 klx2294.2874.86000169.1
32 GoDucks79.4889.63000169.1
33 ScumbyJr91.7777.23000169.0
34 bob71181.4487.22000168.6
35 garygbond75.3992.36000167.7
36 chris_s86.8080.68000167.4

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2023 8:50 am
by barrmorris
Based on games through 5/21

MemberEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Best 4
1 the420dude94.3891.25000185.6
2 Axlerod Gunderson93.9389.44000183.3
3 RICHARDGAGNON86.5795.44000182.0
4 Lee30094.1487.59000181.7
5 DERRICKSANSON92.5288.83000181.3
6 rickburr89.1592.12000181.2
7 waynick95.3485.51000180.8
8 ycbill88.6291.57000180.2
9 wjb2389.2389.63000178.8
10 Gilbo95.8282.33000178.1
11 mpcharette91.3186.41000177.7
12 exwallman86.2190.79000177.0
13 moodysix90.5785.93000176.5
14 2cityfan96.4879.64000176.1
15 barrmorris96.6578.29000174.9
16 Spider 6780.3594.38000174.7
17 milleram89.5484.63000174.1
18 brlcal59@yahoo.ca83.5689.85000173.4
19 freeman84.4088.97000173.3
20 stevep10791.4981.45000172.9
21 Lochinvars90.2081.82000172.0
22 CirrhoticLiver83.3988.05000171.4
23 SteadyEddie3393.5577.83000171.3
24 uncle ny92.2979.06000171.3
25 Alexander Supertramp80.5290.74000171.2
26 hendrix0880.8190.19000171.0
27 l.strether90.3780.10000170.4
28 gioccobazzi80.7289.44000170.1
29 thisisray77.9291.20000169.1
30 Delbird94.1974.91000169.1
31 GoDucks81.3487.55000168.9
32 chris_s87.0581.54000168.6
33 rudys raiders87.9079.38000167.2
34 ScumbyJr91.9774.50000166.4
35 bob71179.3786.94000166.3
36 garygbond77.6588.02000165.6

Re: Tournament Standings

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2023 7:38 pm
by barrmorris
The tournament page has been updated to include Event 2. Here's my version based on games through 5/24

MemberEvent 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Best 4
1 Axlerod Gunderson95.1988.48000183.6
2 RICHARDGAGNON84.8197.49000182.3
3 rickburr90.9090.81000181.7
4 waynick90.0790.81000180.8
5 the420dude91.7788.09000179.8
6 Lee30094.4284.90000179.3
7 barrmorris96.7182.59000179.3
8 exwallman86.6091.11000177.7
9 Gilbo96.1081.50000177.6
10 moodysix90.8686.64000177.5
11 rudys raiders89.7586.65000176.4
12 chris_s93.9782.30000176.2
13 DERRICKSANSON86.9288.64000175.5
14 2cityfan96.5778.77000175.3
15 milleram89.8085.09000174.8
16 wjb2388.3086.44000174.7
17 ycbill86.4787.97000174.4
18 SteadyEddie3395.0578.89000173.9
19 stevep10790.4283.38000173.8
20 garygbond79.7493.91000173.6
21 JimmyJames20984.4588.70000173.1
22 uncle ny91.1981.89000173.0
23 brlcal59@yahoo.ca84.1788.71000172.8
24 Alexander Supertramp82.4590.01000172.4
25 hendrix0880.0491.96000172.0
26 l.strether87.9083.89000171.8
27 Lochinvars90.6981.02000171.7
28 Delbird96.9474.35000171.2
29 killermarc75.5795.12000170.6
30 ScumbyJr94.6475.64000170.2
31 CirrhoticLiver81.4888.71000170.1
32 Spider 6779.7589.51000169.2
33 mpcharette92.9275.92000168.8
34 XHowser Jr.76.4691.95000168.4
35 schitchen4375.9890.32000166.3
36 thisisray77.3388.31000165.6