Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

First, I’m aware that the Tournament page is not showing League 7. I have contacted SOM and hope that gets fixed soon.

The staggered starts of leagues in the Players’ Championship make it difficult to really know who’s leading. Note that with games through Saturday the 30th, League 1 has played 36 games and League 7 has played 3. For that reason, and because I enjoy stuff like this, I’ve built a model to estimate final points for all managers. The model uses the manager’s record with the 2021 card set to develop an expected record in Event 1 prior to the start of the tournament (prior distribution). Then the actual record is factored in, and using Bayesian statistical methods, the model develops a projected record (posterior distribution). For now, the top 4 teams in each league are projected to earn 3 playoff wins each.

Based on games through Saturday, April 30 (and including League 7), the model projects the following for the top 36:

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	2cityfan	100.5
2	milleram	97.4
3	Delbird	95.3
4	Axlerod Gunderson	95.1
5	ScumbyJr	95.0
6	the420dude	94.8
7	stevep107	94.7
8	mesquiton	94.7
9	Gilbo	94.0
10	Jeepdriver	93.7
11	barrmorris	93.5
12	keyzick	92.8
13	moodysix	92.5
14	Lee300	92.3
15	mpcharette	92.0
16	l.strether	91.1
17	DERRICKSANSON	89.8
18	TVF33	89.7
19	RICHARDGAGNON	89.4
20	gioccobazzi	88.1
21	chris_s	86.8
22	exwallman	86.8
23	Spider 67	86.8
24	rudys raiders	86.7
25	XHowser Jr.	86.7
26	ycbill	86.4
27	SteadyEddie33	86.3
28	uncle ny	85.2
29	teamnasty	82.9
30	hendrix08	82.5
31	Knerrpool	82.4
32	klx22	82.0
33	Morpheus	81.9
34	brlcal59@yahoo.ca	81.8
35	rickburr	81.8
36	Nick_danger	81.4

Based on games through 5/2

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	Axlerod Gunderson	100.4
2	2cityfan	100.4
3	the420dude	96.9
4	Delbird	95.5
5	milleram	95.5
6	l.strether	95.4
7	ScumbyJr	95.1
8	stevep107	94.8
9	Jeepdriver	94.0
10	barrmorris	93.7
11	mesquiton	93.3
12	moodysix	92.8
13	chris_s	92.6
14	TVF33	92.3
15	klx22	91.1
16	Gilbo	91.0
17	Spider 67	89.3
18	wjb23	89.1
19	gioccobazzi	89.0
20	Lee300	88.9
21	uncle ny	88.4
22	mpcharette	88.3
23	DERRICKSANSON	88.0
24	keyzick	87.9
25	exwallman	87.4
26	Lochinvars	87.0
27	teamnasty	86.4
28	CirrhoticLiver	86.2
29	SteadyEddie33	85.9
30	rudys raiders	84.6
31	waynick	83.2
32	Morpheus	82.8
33	djp_77	82.5
34	Alexander Supertramp	82.3
35	cummings2	82.0
36	RICHARDGAGNON	82.0

Based on games through 5/5

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	Axlerod Gunderson	103.4
2	2cityfan	98.6
3	milleram	97.2
4	Delbird	95.7
5	the420dude	95.0
6	SteadyEddie33	94.5
7	TVF33	94.5
8	ScumbyJr	93.5
9	Gilbo	93.3
10	moodysix	93.1
11	DERRICKSANSON	92.7
12	Jeepdriver	92.6
13	barrmorris	92.3
14	l.strether	91.7
15	keyzick	91.7
16	stevep107	91.5
17	klx22	91.4
18	Lee300	89.6
19	chris_s	89.5
20	mpcharette	88.8
21	rudys raiders	88.4
22	gioccobazzi	88.0
23	Lochinvars	87.9
24	RICHARDGAGNON	87.6
25	mesquiton	87.4
26	teamnasty	86.9
27	WJS6768	86.7
28	Morpheus	86.6
29	Spider 67	86.5
30	wjb23	84.9
31	Phila01	83.7
32	Alexander Supertramp	83.2
33	exwallman	83.2
34	cummings2	83.1
35	CirrhoticLiver	82.3
36	waynick	82.3

Games through 5/8

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	Axlerod Gunderson	101.3
2	SteadyEddie33	99.5
3	2cityfan	98.6
4	DERRICKSANSON	96.7
5	TVF33	96.4
6	Delbird	95.9
7	Gilbo	95.3
8	the420dude	95.1
9	chris_s	94.5
10	milleram	93.9
11	moodysix	93.3
12	wjb23	93.3
13	barrmorris	92.6
14	keyzick	92.0
15	Lee300	92.0
16	Jeepdriver	91.3
17	ScumbyJr	90.4
18	l.strether	90.2
19	klx22	90.1
20	uncle ny	89.8
21	waynick	89.1
22	stevep107	88.6
23	RICHARDGAGNON	88.5
24	CirrhoticLiver	87.6
25	Phila01	87.6
26	cummings2	87.1
27	gioccobazzi	87.1
28	teamnasty	85.9
29	mesquiton	84.8
30	mpcharette	84.5
31	Morpheus	84.3
32	brlcal59@yahoo.ca	84.3
33	rickburr	84.3
34	Alexander Supertramp	83.9
35	Lochinvars	83.8
36	rudys raiders	82.8

Through 5/11. Event 2 will be added when it closes (and when it's added to tournament page).

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	2cityfan	103.2
2	SteadyEddie33	99.5
3	Axlerod Gunderson	97.9
4	Gilbo	97.2
5	DERRICKSANSON	96.7
6	chris_s	94.6
7	barrmorris	94.4
8	moodysix	93.5
9	the420dude	93.5
10	Delbird	92.9
11	waynick	92.6
12	milleram	92.5
13	Lee300	92.4
14	keyzick	92.2
15	l.strether	92.2
16	wjb23	92.0
17	gioccobazzi	91.0
18	TVF33	90.8
19	klx22	90.4
20	stevep107	90.4
21	ScumbyJr	89.2
22	uncle ny	88.5
23	mpcharette	88.0
24	Lochinvars	87.6
25	exwallman	87.1
26	mesquiton	86.9
27	brlcal59@yahoo.ca	86.6
28	Morpheus	86.4
29	teamnasty	86.2
30	chaberlal	84.8
31	Phila01	83.7
32	Spider 67	83.3
33	RICHARDGAGNON	83.3
34	cummings2	83.2
35	Alexander Supertramp	83.1
36	CirrhoticLiver	82.2

Games through 5/14. My position will change quickly when Event 2 is included.

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	2cityfan	101.5
2	barrmorris	98.9
3	SteadyEddie33	96.7
4	DERRICKSANSON	94.9
5	Axlerod Gunderson	94.9
6	Gilbo	94.6
7	wjb23	93.7
8	chris_s	93.2
9	milleram	92.7
10	klx22	92.2
11	the420dude	92.0
12	Lochinvars	91.7
13	Delbird	91.7
14	waynick	91.5
15	Lee300	91.3
16	keyzick	91.1
17	TVF33	91.0
18	ScumbyJr	91.0
19	moodysix	90.8
20	l.strether	90.8
21	CirrhoticLiver	90.1
22	stevep107	89.2
23	rudys raiders	88.8
24	mpcharette	88.5
25	teamnasty	88.0
26	uncle ny	87.4
27	Morpheus	87.1
28	brlcal59@yahoo.ca	85.9
29	rickburr	85.9
30	gioccobazzi	85.6
31	chaberlal	85.4
32	Phila01	84.4
33	cummings2	84.1
34	mesquiton	83.1
35	ycbill	82.9
36	freeman	82.7

Games through 5/18. Still only event 1 as I'm waiting for Strat to update tournament page with event 2.

Rank	owner	Pred. Points thru E1
1	2cityfan	99.1
2	barrmorris	97.9
3	waynick	96.5
4	SteadyEddie33	96.0
5	klx22	94.3
6	Gilbo	94.2
7	DERRICKSANSON	93.9
8	Axlerod Gunderson	93.9
9	the420dude	92.8
10	Delbird	92.6
11	milleram	92.0
12	cummings2	91.8
13	ScumbyJr	91.8
14	wjb23	91.6
15	rudys raiders	91.5
16	mpcharette	91.0
17	Lee300	90.9
18	uncle ny	90.3
19	TVF33	90.2
20	stevep107	90.0
21	chris_s	89.8
22	Morpheus	89.6
23	ycbill	89.6
24	moodysix	88.9
25	l.strether	88.6
26	rickburr	88.6
27	CirrhoticLiver	88.5
28	mesquiton	87.2
29	keyzick	86.6
30	Lochinvars	85.1
31	freeman	83.9
32	Spider 67	83.7
33	brlcal59@yahoo.ca	82.9
34	Phila01	82.9
35	WJS6768	82.8
36	MochaDog	82.8

It wasn't to hard to modify this so I'm not dependent on Strat's tournament page. This now includes predictions for event 2. I also made a small modification to how it predicts playoff points. Still just assuming 3 points for each playoff team, but now handle wildcard teams better.

Member	Event 1	Event 2	Event 3	Event 4	Event 5	Best 4
1 waynick	96.47	89.75	0	0	0	186.2
2 the420dude	92.80	92.89	0	0	0	185.6
3 DERRICKSANSON	93.94	89.63	0	0	0	183.5
4 Axlerod Gunderson	93.92	89.03	0	0	0	182.9
5 wjb23	91.64	91.28	0	0	0	182.9
6 milleram	91.97	89.03	0	0	0	181.0
7 2cityfan	99.08	81.15	0	0	0	180.2
8 barrmorris	97.93	81.66	0	0	0	179.6
9 ycbill	89.61	89.14	0	0	0	178.7
10 Spider 67	83.70	94.64	0	0	0	178.3
11 moodysix	88.85	89.14	0	0	0	177.9
12 Gilbo	94.19	83.27	0	0	0	177.4
13 mpcharette	91.04	86.41	0	0	0	177.4
14 rickburr	88.60	87.83	0	0	0	176.4
15 CirrhoticLiver	85.47	89.75	0	0	0	175.2
16 Lee300	90.86	84.35	0	0	0	175.2
17 RICHARDGAGNON	81.48	93.12	0	0	0	174.6
18 SteadyEddie33	95.97	78.56	0	0	0	174.5
19 hendrix08	80.30	93.72	0	0	0	174.0
20 brlcal59@yahoo.ca	82.90	89.22	0	0	0	172.1
21 cummings2	91.84	80.18	0	0	0	172.0
22 rudys raiders	91.46	80.18	0	0	0	171.6
23 Alexander Supertramp	82.43	88.70	0	0	0	171.1
24 mesquiton	87.16	83.93	0	0	0	171.1
25 stevep107	89.98	80.25	0	0	0	170.2
26 uncle ny	90.34	79.86	0	0	0	170.2
27 l.strether	88.61	81.15	0	0	0	169.7
28 exwallman	85.79	83.58	0	0	0	169.3
29 thisisray	80.06	89.22	0	0	0	169.2
30 freeman	83.90	85.35	0	0	0	169.2
31 klx22	94.28	74.86	0	0	0	169.1
32 GoDucks	79.48	89.63	0	0	0	169.1
33 ScumbyJr	91.77	77.23	0	0	0	169.0
34 bob711	81.44	87.22	0	0	0	168.6
35 garygbond	75.39	92.36	0	0	0	167.7
36 chris_s	86.80	80.68	0	0	0	167.4

Based on games through 5/21

Member	Event 1	Event 2	Event 3	Event 4	Event 5	Best 4
1 the420dude	94.38	91.25	0	0	0	185.6
2 Axlerod Gunderson	93.93	89.44	0	0	0	183.3
3 RICHARDGAGNON	86.57	95.44	0	0	0	182.0
4 Lee300	94.14	87.59	0	0	0	181.7
5 DERRICKSANSON	92.52	88.83	0	0	0	181.3
6 rickburr	89.15	92.12	0	0	0	181.2
7 waynick	95.34	85.51	0	0	0	180.8
8 ycbill	88.62	91.57	0	0	0	180.2
9 wjb23	89.23	89.63	0	0	0	178.8
10 Gilbo	95.82	82.33	0	0	0	178.1
11 mpcharette	91.31	86.41	0	0	0	177.7
12 exwallman	86.21	90.79	0	0	0	177.0
13 moodysix	90.57	85.93	0	0	0	176.5
14 2cityfan	96.48	79.64	0	0	0	176.1
15 barrmorris	96.65	78.29	0	0	0	174.9
16 Spider 67	80.35	94.38	0	0	0	174.7
17 milleram	89.54	84.63	0	0	0	174.1
18 brlcal59@yahoo.ca	83.56	89.85	0	0	0	173.4
19 freeman	84.40	88.97	0	0	0	173.3
20 stevep107	91.49	81.45	0	0	0	172.9
21 Lochinvars	90.20	81.82	0	0	0	172.0
22 CirrhoticLiver	83.39	88.05	0	0	0	171.4
23 SteadyEddie33	93.55	77.83	0	0	0	171.3
24 uncle ny	92.29	79.06	0	0	0	171.3
25 Alexander Supertramp	80.52	90.74	0	0	0	171.2
26 hendrix08	80.81	90.19	0	0	0	171.0
27 l.strether	90.37	80.10	0	0	0	170.4
28 gioccobazzi	80.72	89.44	0	0	0	170.1
29 thisisray	77.92	91.20	0	0	0	169.1
30 Delbird	94.19	74.91	0	0	0	169.1
31 GoDucks	81.34	87.55	0	0	0	168.9
32 chris_s	87.05	81.54	0	0	0	168.6
33 rudys raiders	87.90	79.38	0	0	0	167.2
34 ScumbyJr	91.97	74.50	0	0	0	166.4
35 bob711	79.37	86.94	0	0	0	166.3
36 garygbond	77.65	88.02	0	0	0	165.6

The tournament page has been updated to include Event 2. Here's my version based on games through 5/24

Member	Event 1	Event 2	Event 3	Event 4	Event 5	Best 4
1 Axlerod Gunderson	95.19	88.48	0	0	0	183.6
2 RICHARDGAGNON	84.81	97.49	0	0	0	182.3
3 rickburr	90.90	90.81	0	0	0	181.7
4 waynick	90.07	90.81	0	0	0	180.8
5 the420dude	91.77	88.09	0	0	0	179.8
6 Lee300	94.42	84.90	0	0	0	179.3
7 barrmorris	96.71	82.59	0	0	0	179.3
8 exwallman	86.60	91.11	0	0	0	177.7
9 Gilbo	96.10	81.50	0	0	0	177.6
10 moodysix	90.86	86.64	0	0	0	177.5
11 rudys raiders	89.75	86.65	0	0	0	176.4
12 chris_s	93.97	82.30	0	0	0	176.2
13 DERRICKSANSON	86.92	88.64	0	0	0	175.5
14 2cityfan	96.57	78.77	0	0	0	175.3
15 milleram	89.80	85.09	0	0	0	174.8
16 wjb23	88.30	86.44	0	0	0	174.7
17 ycbill	86.47	87.97	0	0	0	174.4
18 SteadyEddie33	95.05	78.89	0	0	0	173.9
19 stevep107	90.42	83.38	0	0	0	173.8
20 garygbond	79.74	93.91	0	0	0	173.6
21 JimmyJames209	84.45	88.70	0	0	0	173.1
22 uncle ny	91.19	81.89	0	0	0	173.0
23 brlcal59@yahoo.ca	84.17	88.71	0	0	0	172.8
24 Alexander Supertramp	82.45	90.01	0	0	0	172.4
25 hendrix08	80.04	91.96	0	0	0	172.0
26 l.strether	87.90	83.89	0	0	0	171.8
27 Lochinvars	90.69	81.02	0	0	0	171.7
28 Delbird	96.94	74.35	0	0	0	171.2
29 killermarc	75.57	95.12	0	0	0	170.6
30 ScumbyJr	94.64	75.64	0	0	0	170.2
31 CirrhoticLiver	81.48	88.71	0	0	0	170.1
32 Spider 67	79.75	89.51	0	0	0	169.2
33 mpcharette	92.92	75.92	0	0	0	168.8
34 XHowser Jr.	76.46	91.95	0	0	0	168.4
35 schitchen43	75.98	90.32	0	0	0	166.3
36 thisisray	77.33	88.31	0	0	0	165.6