Would You Cut Him?

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coyote303

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Would You Cut Him?

PostSat Aug 30, 2014 7:24 pm

Jim Gentile after 18 games playing in Forbes Field (12/12/4/1) has the following stats:

G = 18
AB = 63
H = 13
HR = 1
RBI = 3
BB = 13
Avg = .206

I will tell you this is a trick question because the season has since concluded. Here are his final stats:

G = 147
AB = 459
H = 132
HR = 34
RBI = 79
BB = 92
Avg. = .288

He had his number 1 card (1961; OPS 1.069), and he helped propel my team to the finals. That's why I chuckle when I see someone post that so-and-so is doing so badly after a limited number of games--or when I see a manager cut someone after one or two series. Even the best cards can have a string of bad luck. So unless you have some solid evidence (e.g., injury reveal) someone is on a bad season, cut him at your own risk!
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durantjerry

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Re: Would You Cut Him?

PostSun Aug 31, 2014 9:37 pm

I am a little quick on the trigger with regards to cutting guys and just had a few situations with guys I probably would have cut given their slow starts. Luckily, I was forced into being patient due to injury reveals showing it was really one of their best seasons. Below is Edmonds line after 18 games,playing 12 games in Coors and 3 in Tiger with an equal H/P split and a 2 for 5 line vs lhp's:
69 12 19 4 0 1 9 3 18 1 0 1 D 1-12 .275 .301 .377
64 17 4 0 1 9 2 16 .266 .284 .375(vs rhp)
The production is kind of OK with regards to runs and RBI(line up is stacked), but definitely subpar based on the parks he had to hit in with an even H/P split. I probably would have let him fly except for an injury reveal of his best season of .946 OPS with a 6R. Same thing happened to Piazza, who has since come around, but only the fact that he doesn't really have a bad season saved him. Maybe I'll show a little more patience moving forward, but probably not.
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coyote303

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Re: Would You Cut Him?

PostMon Sep 01, 2014 12:22 am

durantjerry wrote:...Maybe I'll show a little more patience moving forward, but probably not.


Great line! Thanks for sharing.
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paul8210

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Re: Would You Cut Him?

PostMon Sep 01, 2014 12:18 pm

Gentile's high walk total after 18 games would have made me think he was 1960 or 1961 because of the 5-1 ratio between BB and AB. I would have kept him, too. The other years ratios are between 6.5:1 and 7:1. I just don't expect players on a pace to walk over 100 times per season to only walk 75 times in real life.
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coyote303

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Re: Would You Cut Him?

PostTue Sep 02, 2014 12:34 am

paul8210 wrote:Gentile's high walk total after 18 games would have made me think he was 1960 or 1961 because of the 5-1 ratio between BB and AB. I would have kept him, too. The other years ratios are between 6.5:1 and 7:1. I just don't expect players on a pace to walk over 100 times per season to only walk 75 times in real life.


That is exactly right, and it might be the only reason I kept him "just a little longer." Fortunately, he started hitting and I avoided making a big mistake.

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