Interpreting HAL moves

I am not a complete newbie to mystery cards, but I am also not that good at it. My question is, how much weight do you put in HAL moves when interpreting cards? Here is what I am referring to.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/427763/105

In the 9th inning, HAL pinch hit J.C. Martin for Sherm Lollar. That makes me think that HAL knows the Lollar card is bad, and the Martin card better. But, is this true? Does HAL make moves on the individual card or based on the averages of the 5 seasons?

These kind of moves are significant. I'm convinced that HAL knows the year and does not use a 5 year average. However, HAL loves the home run and will often pull a high OBP, high BA player in favor of a slugger, especially in late game situations where a home run makes a difference. HAL also plays the lefty-righty percentages; so HAL will sometimes pinch hit with a lefty to face a pitcher with a strong righty bias - for example, HAL will use a lefty pinch hitter against a 7R pitcher.

Thanks for the feedback. I agree that HAL knows which card he is managing, which makes me think I should dump this Lollar card quickly.

Chris, I think the lack of replies is because HAL's moves (and the reasons behind them) are often a mystery. However, I would take what Franky said as gospel; he knows his stuff. In fact, if you are ever in a division with him, you should have one goal: wild card!

So, was Lollar's card bad and deserving of a drop? Or was Lollar's card good against that pitcher and Martin's card was just a bit better? This pinch hitting thing has got me baffled. I'm seeing guys with over 250 at bats with adequate home run power batting over .300 against right-handers, getting pinch hit for by a right-handed hitter, who themselves were pinch hit for a few games earlier against a right-hander.

No way am I going to make a roster decision on whether to drop a guy with such unconvincing data.

I'm wondering if HAL is programmed to give "head fakes" 10% of the time to intentionally make you mistakenly think there is a solid reason for his pinch hitting decisions.