Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Can HAL give you reliable clues as to whether you should drop a player that appears to be doing good, but only based on an extremely small sample size? In a recent game, HAL decided to pinch hit for a player that I recently acquired. I was down by a few runs and didn't have any runners on base. The batter that was pinch hit for had a .400 average, but that was based on only a handful of at bats. The pinch hitter would not have been my first choice to pinch hit if I were managing. Does HAL know something I don't know? Did HAL make a statistical calculation based the card he can "see" but I can't?

If HAL knows this player has a bad card/year and that's why he was pinch hit for, then I would be wise to drop him. On the other hand, could this just be another managerial blunder by HAL?

I'd sure like to hear what you guys think.

If you tell us which player was pinch hit for and which player pinch hit, it would be easier to determine if HAL's move "made sense" or was indicative of some hidden logic to which only HAL had access.

I believe that HAL knows the players' years, but, IMO, he doesn't always make the smartest moves. HAL loves the home run, so HAL will often dis players with high obp in favor of sluggers. That said, if HAL is removing your hitter, there is a good chance that he's on a bad year - especially if the pinch hitter hits from the same side (for example, a righty pnich hits for a righty).

That's why I would say it's still important to see who the two players are. The player pinch hit for may have hit on a solid year while the pinch hitter card may have hit on an amazing year for his card, or--as you noted above--the player pinch hit for could have moderate power while the pinch hitter card has more pop. Either case could just indicate a momentary leaning in HAL's logic and would not necessarily call for the manager to replace the first player with the latter or another player.

l.strether wrote:That's why I would say it's still important to see who the two players are. The player pinch hit for may have hit on a solid year while the pinch hitter card may have hit on an amazing year for his card, or--as you noted above--the player pinch hit for could have moderate power while the pinch hitter card has more pop. Either case could just indicate a momentary leaning in HAL's logic and would not necessarily call for the manager to replace the first player with the latter or another player.

Actually, it would be even better if he could post a link to the game in question. I would want to see as well who the opposing pitcher was, and to a lesser extent the park the game was played in and the situation.

Like the fellas above mention, knowing the player's, situation and stadium would help us give you better advice. However, when Hal or the computer pinch hits for one of my guys, I definitely make note of who got pinch hit for and who did the pinch hitting. It is definitely a clue of some kind. Hal will make all kinds of mistakes, yes, but he will not pinch hit a inferior batter for a batter who has a great card..... Unless possibly it is a so called, "clutch situation" and the pinch hitter is positive clutch and the guy in the lineup is negative clutch.

Yeah, we'd love to see the link to the examples.

I'm convinced Hal knows. On five separate occasions on my team, generally weak hitting backup catcher Jerry May has pinch hit for Cesar Tovar.

I agree HAL loves the HR, and the late inning game ending double steal when you're behind, threatening, and your best hitter is coming up