Base Stealing

Playing in a 70's league. Have Davey Lopes. He should be my best base stealer, (AA) rating. He has 29 steals but has been caught 15 times so his stolen base percentage is just 65.9% The rest of my team has 25 steals and only been caught 3 times for a stolen base percentage of 89.2% Most of those steals with (A) rating players. What gives? I set all of my (A) rated or better players with the setting of "steal more" and set them at either aggressive or very aggressive when I face a pitcher/catcher combined hold rating of -1 or better. Does Hal maybe send Lopes more often because he is my lead-off hitter whether he gets a good lead or not? Any suggestions? Thanks.

Jay

Some of that is probably just statistical noise. But I have long suspected that HAL runs lead off hitters much more often than other positions in the lineups.

What is your team base steeling setting? what is Lopes'?

I had Sosa (he's an A) once in a 90s league, set to 'steal more' and he was 0 for 0 for the entire season! And team setting rarely goes below Normal.

Setting your stealing to "aggressive" or "very aggressive" does not make your team steal more in advantageous situations, it just lowers the acceptable threshold of success so they steal more in general. Therefore, Lopes running more than the others is perfectly logical. Lopes has a higher rating on both the front end and I think, more importantly, the back end. Lopes is more likely to surpass the acceptable threshold for success for a steal attempt than your other base stealers(15 vs 13 on the back end). How many times has he tried to steal third or home? With the settings you are using Lopes percentage is not extremely surprising. What is more surprising is the success of your other base stealers using those settings. IMO they are over achieving quite a bit. I have played many teams( a real ******* lot) and created quite a few SB teams. Below is a team that shattered the 80's SB record. If you look at the percentages I think only one of the top guys(19-15)achieved 75% using a "very aggressive" setting for the whole season. That's the way it goes when you use the more aggressive settings. The acceptable threshold for success for a steal attempt is too low to achieve great percentage results unless you get lucky. IMO the "aggressive" settings are when you seek quanity vs a real high percentage result. Personally, I would never go above a "normal" setting unless I was specifically trying to steal bases. IMO you just usually don't see the percentage results with the aggressive settings that make it worth taking the bat out of the hitters hands.
http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/681551

I had Lopes leading off and he stole over 70 bases and got caught about 15 times. I was aggressive in base running and had him set up to steal more.

In these leagues the runners are facing more catchers with better arms. But I do think stealing is one of the things SOM struggles to replicate as well as most other stats.

Just as with the hitting and pitching results, the results will vary from team to team and from league to league. However, IMO as the base stealing settings get more aggressive, you are more likely to steal at a lower percentage of success. Just the fact that as the settings get more aggressive basestealer's are more likely to attempt to steal third and home more often makes this so. Add in the fact that they will attempt to steal second more often at a lower threshold of success and IMO there is no avoiding that you are more likely to get caught stealing more as you get more aggressive with your settings. Just as with the 25-3 success rate with "A"(18-13) rated stealer's mentioned above, you can have success percentage-wise, but overall you are more likely to achieve a lower success percentage(but higher quanity) than if a lower setting was used.

I had Sosa (he's an A) once in a 90s league, set to 'steal more' and he was 0 for 0 for the entire season! And team setting rarely goes below Normal.

This happened to me (although I didn't have him set to steal more). I'm convinced that Sosa has a different steal rating if you get his 2001 season.

I had Sosa (he's an A) once in a 90s league, set to 'steal more' and he was 0 for 0 for the entire season! And team setting rarely goes below Normal.

This happened to me (although I didn't have him set to steal more). I'm convinced that Sosa has a different steal rating if you get his 2001 season.

I'm betting that Sosa was in the "heart" of the batting order and I feel that HAL does not let those guys steal often. And I don't think it's a it's just a random thing. I think the game engine gives the 3,4,5 slots less steal opportunities. Maybe so you don't end up taking the bat out of the guys hand who follows him in the lineup?