Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Assuming rolls are about even, about how many bats do you wait before pulling the plug on relief pitchers?

There is no easy answer to this one. Most relief pitchers don't get enough innings until midseason to make a truly informed judgment. (I'm not necessarily saying you should wait that long.) Also, I'd say many managers pull the trigger way too soon. Here are things I consider:

1. Does the reliever even have a bad card? I've seen managers cut 60s Hoyt Wilhelm. Why? My current ace reliever, Dick Hall, is sporting a 6.48 ERA after 8 innings of work. However, I won't cut him because I don't care which year he has; they are all very good.

2. How bad is the reliever's stinker year(s), assuming he has any? Take a look at Johnny Klippstein in the 60s.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/player/36 ... /60/448460

He has three good cards (at a great value) and two awful cards. I'd be a little quicker to drop him if he gets off to a terrible start.

3. If a reliever has around 20 IP and you're thinking of cutting him, really analyze the results first. While this is still too few innings to be certain of which year he might have, sometimes we have to make an educated guess. Look at the following things:

a. Number of rolls off of his card versus the hitters (you did mention this one)
b. Left-right split comparison, including analyzing walk and strikeouts each direction
c. Was he lucky or unlucky on ballpark homeruns and ballpark singles? How many ballpark homerun chances did he allow?
d. What kind of league are you in? If you're playing in a $200 million salary league, it's especially hard to evaluate pitchers because the hitting is so good.
e. Sometimes if it's a really close decision and the pitcher gave up a ton of doubles (or triples) in his stinker year against either righties of lefties, I'll go through and check inning by inning to see if he has given up more than his share of these extra base hits in the corresponding direction.

How soon you cut someone is also a matter of personal taste. However, I recommend that you don't be that guy who drops a reliever after one bad early outing.