Projected Top 25 Starting Pitchers for 2012

In 2009 I predicted the Top 25 starting pitchers for Strat at the end of the season and correctly identified 22 of them, along with 8 of the top 10...nearly spot by spot. I did the same projection in 2010 and still ID'd most of the Top 25, but not as perfectly. I did not do the projection last year.

Below are the projections for 2012, with estimated $ values. These projections are based on ESPN's published Component ERA (ERC), a projection of what an ERA for a pitcher SHOULD be based on his raw data (since Strat cards are based on raw data, not final ERA). I then use ERC and adjust it for league, team defensive efficiency, and ballpark effects, before determining values and adjusting for stars(*) and endurance.

Some elements not included in these projections are R/L effects and out types (strikeout pitchers in pitchers' parks are over-penalized while 'contact' pitchers are under-penalized). Also, adjustments for park and defense are generalized, not specific to result-types.

Enjoy:

1 Kris Medlen ATL S7/R3 9.95M
2 Justin Verlander DET S7* 9.75
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD S7* 8.96
4 Brandon Beachy ATL S6 8.24
5 Jake Peavy CHW S7* 8.03
6 Gio Gonzalez WSH S6* 7.87
(Steve Johnson BAL S6/R3 7.30) 12 games, 4 starts, 38.1 inn.
7 David Price TB S7* 7.21
8 R.A. Dickey NYM S7* 6.85
9 Brett Anderson OAK S6 6.83
10 Kyle Lohse STL S6* 6.49
11 Matt Cain SF S7* 6.47
12 Mat Latos CIN S7* 6.45
13 Chris Tillman BAL S6 6.45
14 Johnny Cueto CIN S7* 6.37
15 Jered Weaver LAA S7 6.33
16 Cole Hamels PHI S7* 6.26
17 Chris Sale CHW S6 5.77
18 Cliff Lee PHI S7* 5.76
19 Brandon Morrow TOR S6 5.74
20 Zack Greinke LAA/MIL S7* 5.67
21 Hiroki Kuroda NYY S7* 5.37
22 Neftali Feliz TEX S6 5.36
23 Ted Lilly LAD S6 5.31
(Cory Luebke SD S6 5.30) 5 games, 5 starts, 31 inn.
24 Felipe Paulino KC S6 5.25
25 CC Sabathia NYY S7 5.22

Just curious, why include Anderson (35 IP, 6 starts) and not Johnson? Past history of success?

I have one staff in one of my keepers with:

4 Beachy
9 Anderson
13 Tillman
14 Cueto
15 Weaver
19 Morrow

and Matt Harevey whom I guessing is just below these guys

Just wish my hitting was half as good

Most likely Johnson and Leabuke will just be R3 RP's in the set, sad to say.

In 2009 I predicted the Top 25 starting pitchers for Strat at the end of the season and correctly identified 22 of them, along with 8 of the top 10...nearly spot by spot. I did the same projection in 2010 and still ID'd most of the Top 25, but not as perfectly. I did not do the projection last year.

Below are the projections for 2012, with estimated $ values. These projections are based on ESPN's published Component ERA (ERC), a projection of what an ERA for a pitcher SHOULD be based on his raw data (since Strat cards are based on raw data, not final ERA). I then use ERC and adjust it for league, team defensive efficiency, and ballpark effects, before determining values and adjusting for stars(*) and endurance.

Some elements not included in these projections are R/L effects and out types (strikeout pitchers in pitchers' parks are over-penalized while 'contact' pitchers are under-penalized). Also, adjustments for park and defense are generalized, not specific to result-types.

Enjoy:

1 Kris Medlen ATL S7/R3 9.95M
2 Justin Verlander DET S7* 9.75
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD S7* 8.96
4 Brandon Beachy ATL S6 8.24
5 Jake Peavy CHW S7* 8.03
6 Gio Gonzalez WSH S6* 7.87
(Steve Johnson BAL S6/R3 7.30) 12 games, 4 starts, 38.1 inn.
7 David Price TB S7* 7.21
8 R.A. Dickey NYM S7* 6.85
9 Brett Anderson OAK S6 6.83
10 Kyle Lohse STL S6* 6.49
11 Matt Cain SF S7* 6.47
12 Mat Latos CIN S7* 6.45
13 Chris Tillman BAL S6 6.45
14 Johnny Cueto CIN S7* 6.37
15 Jered Weaver LAA S7 6.33
16 Cole Hamels PHI S7* 6.26
17 Chris Sale CHW S6 5.77
18 Cliff Lee PHI S7* 5.76
19 Brandon Morrow TOR S6 5.74
20 Zack Greinke LAA/MIL S7* 5.67
21 Hiroki Kuroda NYY S7* 5.37
22 Neftali Feliz TEX S6 5.36
23 Ted Lilly LAD S6 5.31
(Cory Luebke SD S6 5.30) 5 games, 5 starts, 31 inn.
24 Felipe Paulino KC S6 5.25
25 CC Sabathia NYY S7 5.22

you forget Strasburg. Nationals deserve to lose for putting him on ice.

Rant:
With the combination of Johnson's only 4 starts, potentially very expensive card, and no previous experience, I think there's a chance he gets an R2 or R3 card, but maybe not as a starter for the main set.

Miamial:
I didn't forget Strasburg or anyone else. He's an S6 with no star, pitching in the national league on a team with great defense. It's possible he could be as high as the 20th best starter's card, but not higher. I have him at about #35.

Ninersphan:
Right, Harvey's just a few slots outside this list.

I have one staff in one of my keepers with:

4 Beachy
9 Anderson
13 Tillman
14 Cueto
15 Weaver
19 Morrow

and Matt Harevey whom I guessing is just below these guys

Just wish my hitting was half as good

Better than mine with just 3, that being #'1-Medlen, #6 Gonzalez, and #25 Sabathia. However, I DO have hitting

Hey, I'm really offended by that B&W GIF of the people being blown to bits and murdered. It's horrible. I don't know the context, I don't know what's going on, but I come to Strat to escape. I don't want to see real life horror. It's disgusting.

tws

Felix Hernandez?

How about RP's? Aren't Street, Kimbrel, Chapman, and Rodney all going to have essentially clean cards?