Does Clutch Hitting Make A Difference? Here's proof.

From time to time on the message board there will be a thread discussing clutch hitting and the impact it may have on the game. Clutch hitting numbers have been available since the transition from the TSN site to the SOM site. I thought that some of you would be interested in some clutch hitting numbers tracked over 3.5 seasons for one of the best clutch hitters in the game.

$9.66 mil Duke Snider has one of the best clutch hitting cards in the game, with 11 extra hit chances as a result of clutch hitting vs. both lefties and righties. Snder batted 5th, considered by many to be the optimal clutch hitting spot in the lineup, all season long on the teams below, with clutch hitting results in parentheses)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/389812 - (2 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .359)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/803773 - (5 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .401)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/805664 - (7 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .457)

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/389809 - (3 clutch hits, average OBP for preceding 4 hitters ~ .441) (after 81 games)

So in 3.5 seasons batting 5th, with the preceding 4 hitters in the lineup averaging roughly a .411 OBP, the average is about 5 clutch hits per season for one of the best clutch hitters in the game batting in what many consider to be the optimum spot in the lineup for clutch hitting opportunities.

How significant is this? Well at first blush, it appears to be not very significant, averaging a clutch hit every 32 games or so. Note that the number of clutch hits was directly correlated to the OBP of the 4 preceding hitters, i.e. the higher the average OBP of the 4 preceding hitters, the more clutch hits, obviously as a result of more clutch hitting opportunities.

However, 5 clutch hits per season might be more significant than it first appears. With 20-25% of the games per season being decided by 1 run, and with a clutch hit ALWAYS driving in at least 1 run, not to mention that it keeps the rally going, giving other hitters an opportunity to knock in more runs, it could translate into a handful of extra wins per season. With playoff spots often being decided by two games or less, positive clutch hitting could have a HUGE impact in the standings.

While we may disagree on the extent of the impact, one thing is certain, being that a team is better off with some extra clutch hitting than without it.

Very good breakdown Bernie.

Don't forget the effect that positive clutch has on intentional walks.

Once people get a grasp on the effects of clutch, they then have to determine if the extra money they spend to get it is worth it.

exactly...it's what makes a posi-clutch mid-salary hitter a bit more valuable hitting mid of the lineup behind a much better hitter. one of the few stats i like to track in the leader board is intentional walks--always seeking to minimize it so i know my high salary guys are getting all their opportunities if possible.

It seems that a good hitter is a good hitter. It makes a tad of a difference, if one were to evaluate between two hitters of about the same hit ability. But clutch doesn't override a good hitter.

What about the flipside? How much do "$" hitters hurt you?

Hack--what I'm referring to is HALisms--HAL is much less likely to IBB your "good hitter" if he is followed by a posi-clutch hitter who is reasonable

Here's proof of a team designed around positive clutch hitters that has failed, miserably. The problem hasn't been the hitters, they've done as well as can be expected. The pitching (and probably the defense but that's harder to judge) has been absolutely dreadful.

Simulated Stats: http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/810518

Clutch and Misc Stats: http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/810518

I don't intend to try this type of team ever again. Maybe a team of non-zero or near-zero clutch hitters, but I think the clutch probably doesn't come into play often enough to justify the extra salary costs you pay for the privilege of clutch hitting ability, IMO.

Casey: Thanks for posting. It's amazing that Connor has 12 clutch hits in 135 games, where the most Snider had in a complete season was 7 (although he has 7 at game 135 in his current season). Where does Connor bat in the lineup?

Is clutch hitting over/under priced? Based on prices can you tell that their is an adjustment included in the cards for clutch. It is probably about $20k for each clutch roll +/- for the highest price hitters.

This value was based very much along the same lines of logic that you included below. In the case of a clutch hit we know a specific set of circumstances that alters the value of this type of hit. Either at least 1 run will score or not score depending on the clutch value.

Here's proof of a team designed around positive clutch hitters that has failed, miserably. The problem hasn't been the hitters, they've done as well as can be expected. The pitching (and probably the defense but that's harder to judge) has been absolutely dreadful.

Simulated Stats: http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/810518

Clutch and Misc Stats: http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/810518

I don't intend to try this type of team ever again. Maybe a team of non-zero or near-zero clutch hitters, but I think the clutch probably doesn't come into play often enough to justify the extra salary costs you pay for the privilege of clutch hitting ability, IMO.

Don't blame the clutch effect on this team's lack of success. The dreadful pitching and suspect fielding have a lot to do with it. (did you notice for example that you had over 200 xrolls that became hits for this squad? That 1.25 hits/extra runners per game probably did not endear the fielding coach to management). Starters with an average ERA of 7 and WHIP of 1.82 make it hard for a bomber team (much less a clutch team) to get adequate numbers of wins. It is just too much to expect a team like this in a singles park to score 8 runs per game.

I do agree with the other's comments. It is not a bad strategy to get the right clutch batter behind your big man to cut down on the IBB with 2 outs (and make them pay).