- Posts: 478
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:15 pm
I am probably going to regret posting here, but going to try and clear up a few issues raised in this thread. First I want to specifically address two pitchers that came up in this thread:
1) Higbe- I went back and looked at the pricing model and Higbe should have a price of $4.83, so not sure where in the process his price tag got messed up.
2) Claude Hendrix- Claude is "underpriced" based on the review teams feedback. If pricing were based on me alone, he would probably have a price closer to $3.90M. However, unlike some of the theories postulated above the set is not priced by one person. The testing group felt non asterick starters where overpriced and that the assumptions around Innings pitched for these players was too high, so these assumptions were adjusted.
I have a spreadsheet model which breaks down the probabilities of every event that occurs on a strat card. the model then applies values to these events to reach a runs created equivalent for each player, which is then used to generate a price. I set the initial values of these variables based on sabermetric theories and then send the first pass of the results to the test group. Based on feedback from the test group these variables are changed until this team of testers are happy with overall pricing. I started out as one of the testers, reviewing another members pricing model.
1) Higbe- I went back and looked at the pricing model and Higbe should have a price of $4.83, so not sure where in the process his price tag got messed up.
2) Claude Hendrix- Claude is "underpriced" based on the review teams feedback. If pricing were based on me alone, he would probably have a price closer to $3.90M. However, unlike some of the theories postulated above the set is not priced by one person. The testing group felt non asterick starters where overpriced and that the assumptions around Innings pitched for these players was too high, so these assumptions were adjusted.
I have a spreadsheet model which breaks down the probabilities of every event that occurs on a strat card. the model then applies values to these events to reach a runs created equivalent for each player, which is then used to generate a price. I set the initial values of these variables based on sabermetric theories and then send the first pass of the results to the test group. Based on feedback from the test group these variables are changed until this team of testers are happy with overall pricing. I started out as one of the testers, reviewing another members pricing model.