Pricing updates

Rburgh,

One of the biggest mistakes people make when valuing cards and particularly pitchers is that they compute NERP or some estimate of runs allowed over the 108 chances on a pitchers card and think that they have comparable numbers between pitchers. However, baseball is not limited by plate appearances but by outs. So to evaluate pitchers comparably you need to normalize them to a constant number of outs. Also if you only use the pitchers card in your evaluation, you will significantly understate the impact of allowing baserunners (i.e. high WHIP). Lastly pitchers with high WHIPS will not last as long into games and thus pitch fewer innings on the season.

Of that group you listed, Bob Friend will produce the best WHIP, but have the worst TB's. Once you normalize the other pitchers to produce the same number of outs, the extra PA's produce more runs. In a quick TB/OB comparison with Bob Buhl, Buhl will allow approximately 70 more baserunner than Friend, while Friend produces approximately 70 more Total Bases.

Friend's (-4) hold is also beneficial (prob $150k in salary at this run level) and because he has a better whip than Buhl I expect him to throw another 30 IP in a season (prob $200k in salary at this run level).

So as far as Friend fitting in at a price point with others in his range I stand by the original comment. Now if/when I incorporate changes into my RC values (one of which is to increase the RC value of a hit) Friends price will drop (by the way if you used NERP to do your evaluations, it significantly overprices the value of a base hit compared to BB's and TB's, so your results will not like Friend as much just based on the linear weights you are using.)

Also in looking at the comparisons above, I probably "discount" the IP's a bit much for bad WHIP, since neither of these pitchers will produce good WHIPS.

Mark

All the comments above are based on a card that does not exist in ATG7. The data file I received does not match the stats in my pricing model. Will do a bit of research and see if I can match the card to another data base.

Mark

The card image is actually that of the 1966 Bob Friend. The starter rating, hold and error rating are the correct 1956 ratings. I was actually given both years to price. The 1966 version of the card that you all currently see was priced around $1.2million, so clearly a big gap on this one.

Sent a message off to Bernie, sometimes the issue is just a card reader image issue. These things pop out from time to time in the test environment and get caught as the team goes through all of the pricing mechanisms. In this case the assumption is that the cards get run through the existing pricing model and then added to the pool. Looks like a glitch in implementation. Will let you know as I learn more.

Mark

Another card issue is the new Schmidt. Why would his card have no BP singles against Lefties, but the standard 5 against Righties? Seems like a misprint.

Another card issue is the new Schmidt. Why would his card have no BP singles against Lefties, but the standard 5 against Righties? Seems like a misprint.

There are a handful of cards that have no ballpark singles from one side (although it's a little more prevalent for pitchers).

Schmidt actually had very few singles against lefties that year, but a ton of extra-base hits. He went 20 for 50 against lefties, with 8 doubles, 7 homers, and 5 singles. I presume the thinking is that he'll pick up some singles off of the pitchers' cards, so there are virtually no singles on his card (ballpark or regular).

I would suggest that in higher cap leagues, the ability to have 10-12 40+ homer guys and a great staff make the speed game a non issue. As in who cares if my opponents can steal some bases, while I score 5-7 runs per game. So if indeed speed is overpriced, it is often overwhelmed by power

My only mention of Bob Buhl was that his card was one of the five that graded out the best on my linearization of the ten relevant card measures vs. averages of local players. I had no intention of comparing him to that Friend card, although if you want to have a challenge match for, say, $1000 where we have identical rosters consisting of 4 LHB, 4 RHB, and 1 SW and you use the Friend card as your starter in every game while I use Buhl, I'm game. There is no chance in Hell that that card, in an ATG7 envirtonment, comes anywhere close to Buhl.

FYI, Buhl just went 14-13 for my BS event 6 filler team, with a 6.13 ERA in Fenway 67. One of the things your pricing model needs to consider is that Buhl can be effective in LHB-heavy leagues, while that Friend card isn't going to work anywhere. And you just spent half a page ripping me a new a**hole, then in the last paragraph explained that you had priced that card, with Friend's 1966 hold, etc, at $1.2 million. So you are talking out of your a** instead of trying to help make this game the best it can be.

Thanks a bunch! While you have Strat check into their screw-up, why not have them look at the Colon and Maloney cards added late in ATG6. Both of those cards have nutzo prices as well, possibly the same error.

For cards that have been around a long time what about using the actual results from the card in the pricing formula?
Seems to me that would take in to account how everyone uses the card and how it performs as used.

Maloney:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/390692

Thought he would work well as a #4 guy.
Had Wrigley '59, Busch '67 and the '78 Astrodome in my division.

He basically threw batting practice all season...

well...the other half of this is it is obvious there is no one on the permanent SOM payroll smart enough to do it, so they subcontract it out to a community member.