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- Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:35 pm
Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:16 pm
Hey guys! We had lost internet access here all day due to the storm and high winds in the area so unfortunately I wasn't able to post this earlier, sorry about that. Either way I want to go a little bit further with last week's 2012 defensive ratings in this post.
If you remember last week, I was using the fielding preview, error rating projections, and Dean Carrano's excellent Offense vs. Defense article (located here) to evaluate a players total defensive contribution. We looked at two players who saw their 2012 value jump tremendously from receiving 1's, second baseman Danny Espinosa and shortstop Andrelton Simmons. I also quickly mentioned two outfielders who saw their value drop, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis. Both players saw their ratings drop from a 1 all the way to a 3 at their respective positions this year.
I want to focus on one position in particular this week, third base. Injuries have brought down some of the usual top players not making it easy to find a great third baseman in a 12-team league anymore. Miguel Cabrera moving to the position helps tremendously and his 4 with a projected e-rating of 14 doesn't hurt his value too much. According to Dean Carrano's chart he loses 13.5 runs in a full season on defense. Considering his tremendous offensively value, he is clearly a top player in this set and probably the best 3B. You could argue for Adrian Beltre as his OPS is not too far behind Cabrera and he saves a projected 3.6 runs over a full season on defense but I'll give the nod to the Triple Crown winner.
While those two guys are clearly the front-runners at third base in this set, the next four aren't too shabby themselves. Chase Headley and David Wright both came in with a 2 rating (although many were hoping to see a 1 from both of them). With Beltre and Mike Moustakas the only 1's, Headley and Wright gain value on almost all of their peers at third base. With both of them playing in pitcher parks during the season they become my number three and four on my rankings. Aramis Ramirez hit the best out of this tier of players and improved to a 3 fielding rating this year. His projected 8 e-rating leaves him losing only 5.4 runs on defense but Headley and Wright both are better than that so I slot Ramirez as the 5th 3B in the set. Rounding out the group at #6 is Evan Longoria. An injury plagued season left him with only 312 at-bats and a 2 rating with a projected 27 e-rating. This hampers his usually excellent defensive value as it costs him 11.7 runs over a full season. That OPS and 2 range rating may seem like a great value but his injury and error ratings will cost you.
Four more full-time players make my top-12 list (OPS/defensive runs allowed per season in parentheses): Todd Frazier (.829/7.8), Ryan Zimmerman (.824/8.7), David Freese (.839/18.6), and Chipper Jones (.832/15.9). After this we're left with all part-time players. I'm going to make this a top-13 as all three are very close to each other. All should have high injury ratings but they're the best of what's left at this point. Rookies Will Middlebrooks (.835/12.9) and Matt Carpenter (.828/12.6) will be good buys for the third base position. Sandwiched between them in my top-13 is Tampa Bay third baseman Jeff Keppinger (.806/10.5).
Remember that until the ratings guides come out we can't truly evaluate players but here is my initial top-13 at 3B in 2012:
1) Miguel Cabrera
2) Adrian Beltre
3) Chase Headley
4) David Wright
5) Aramis Ramirez
6) Evan Longoria
7)Todd Frazier
8) Ryan Zimmerman
9) David Freese
10) Chipper Jones
11) Will Middlebrooks
12) Jeff Keppinger
13) Matt Carpenter
Missing out on this list are some big names: Alex Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, etc. Agree? Disagree? Let me know!
Once again if anyone has any ideas for future topics, please send them in to onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com. I will be away next week but I will try to get a brief blog up next Thursday. Hope everyone enjoyed their holidays and have a happy and safe New Year!
-John
If you remember last week, I was using the fielding preview, error rating projections, and Dean Carrano's excellent Offense vs. Defense article (located here) to evaluate a players total defensive contribution. We looked at two players who saw their 2012 value jump tremendously from receiving 1's, second baseman Danny Espinosa and shortstop Andrelton Simmons. I also quickly mentioned two outfielders who saw their value drop, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis. Both players saw their ratings drop from a 1 all the way to a 3 at their respective positions this year.
I want to focus on one position in particular this week, third base. Injuries have brought down some of the usual top players not making it easy to find a great third baseman in a 12-team league anymore. Miguel Cabrera moving to the position helps tremendously and his 4 with a projected e-rating of 14 doesn't hurt his value too much. According to Dean Carrano's chart he loses 13.5 runs in a full season on defense. Considering his tremendous offensively value, he is clearly a top player in this set and probably the best 3B. You could argue for Adrian Beltre as his OPS is not too far behind Cabrera and he saves a projected 3.6 runs over a full season on defense but I'll give the nod to the Triple Crown winner.
While those two guys are clearly the front-runners at third base in this set, the next four aren't too shabby themselves. Chase Headley and David Wright both came in with a 2 rating (although many were hoping to see a 1 from both of them). With Beltre and Mike Moustakas the only 1's, Headley and Wright gain value on almost all of their peers at third base. With both of them playing in pitcher parks during the season they become my number three and four on my rankings. Aramis Ramirez hit the best out of this tier of players and improved to a 3 fielding rating this year. His projected 8 e-rating leaves him losing only 5.4 runs on defense but Headley and Wright both are better than that so I slot Ramirez as the 5th 3B in the set. Rounding out the group at #6 is Evan Longoria. An injury plagued season left him with only 312 at-bats and a 2 rating with a projected 27 e-rating. This hampers his usually excellent defensive value as it costs him 11.7 runs over a full season. That OPS and 2 range rating may seem like a great value but his injury and error ratings will cost you.
Four more full-time players make my top-12 list (OPS/defensive runs allowed per season in parentheses): Todd Frazier (.829/7.8), Ryan Zimmerman (.824/8.7), David Freese (.839/18.6), and Chipper Jones (.832/15.9). After this we're left with all part-time players. I'm going to make this a top-13 as all three are very close to each other. All should have high injury ratings but they're the best of what's left at this point. Rookies Will Middlebrooks (.835/12.9) and Matt Carpenter (.828/12.6) will be good buys for the third base position. Sandwiched between them in my top-13 is Tampa Bay third baseman Jeff Keppinger (.806/10.5).
Remember that until the ratings guides come out we can't truly evaluate players but here is my initial top-13 at 3B in 2012:
1) Miguel Cabrera
2) Adrian Beltre
3) Chase Headley
4) David Wright
5) Aramis Ramirez
6) Evan Longoria
7)Todd Frazier
8) Ryan Zimmerman
9) David Freese
10) Chipper Jones
11) Will Middlebrooks
12) Jeff Keppinger
13) Matt Carpenter
Missing out on this list are some big names: Alex Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, etc. Agree? Disagree? Let me know!
Once again if anyone has any ideas for future topics, please send them in to onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com. I will be away next week but I will try to get a brief blog up next Thursday. Hope everyone enjoyed their holidays and have a happy and safe New Year!
-John